Yen long positions look very interesting here

After watching the Japanese Yen             trend lower for more than 77 weeks it appears we are now starting to see the smatterings of a bottom coming in on the currency. While it may be a bit early to 'pound-the-table' I do see an interesting opportunity presenting itself within the options space. According to my very strict WCTS model, I can only consider a long position (through options) if the current market price of a 6 month option is half of what I believe the intrinsic value of the option will be at my target price. (intrinsic value = strike price - target price). Today I took a look at the call options and we appear to have just that situation. Using a very conservative price target (W. Gann's 50% rule) I believe the currency can realistically trade back into the 1.1377 area. At the same time, I can buy a seven month (December, 2014) 1.10 call option for about .002 points (or about $250). Should the market go to my target, that option will have an intrinsic value of .0377 or about $471. This is an interesting trade because the low cost enables me to buy 2 contracts (total invested is about $500). I will look to sell 1/2 the position should prices double and ride the remaining 'free' position into expiry. Should the Yen appreciate into the Optimal Trade Entry (short) window the remaining option could realistically have $13,000 of intrinsic value - not a bad reward/risk ratio and something all traders should consider in earnest.

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Interesting. So the yen up? Seems hard to imagine the japanese yen in a camp of strong currencies... The interest rates are low, so what might be the force that would strengthen this currency?
CRInvestor ForceFollower
Well ironically enough (because J6 is quoted in US dollars) it is probably more a function of a falling US dollar then an appreciating Yen - but a setup is a setup is a setup
jago25_98 ForceFollower
Lower USOIL.
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