USDJPY: Short now, abysmal targets

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I think it's worth it to try a short trade here, aiming to capture the following targets:

Target #1: 116.39
Target #2: 112.95
Target #3: 102.48 (monthly uptrend mode from 2011 to date)

Market sell at the open, place stops for each position at 123.96, and hold the trade until the end of November.
If we don't hit target #2 by then or earlier, and we're not stopped, it might be safer to get out.

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Ivan Labrie
Nov 18
Trade active:
Nov 19
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Hi Ivan! Nice setup! Was waiting 1 week to enter, and went short on Friday (122.76). If C=A we can reach around 113, if 1.618 expansion then even lower, so best of luck to you!
Currently I see corrective wave 2 after leading diagonal it should calm down around 61.8-78.6%.
+2 Reply
Definitely an interesting scenario!
Thanks for stopping by.
Let's see how it unfolds.
+1 Reply
aibek IvanLabrie
You are most welcome amigo!
aibek aibek
by the way, JPN225 has same structure
+1 Reply
Shorts getting a bit jittery ahead of BOJ meeting on Thursday. Should be doubling down (maybe they are?), because if BOJ doesn't announce another planned bond purchase , USD/JPY will go down fast.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie QuantitativeExhaustion
The stop here was almost hit.
In any event, it's lagging the S&P500.
I think it's still an interesting proposition.
IvanLabrie IvanLabrie
Long time no see btw.
I think you are a little early. I believe we would see a 135.00 extension before shorts come in. I do expect the Yen to do well once the market absorbs the shock of the rate rise from the FED. A lot traders will get caught out by the decoupling in the current inverse relationship between the S&P and the Yen. The problem is generations trading now would have been teens the last time we saw rate rises of 25 basis points every quarter, so no one really understands the impact of diverging monetary policy. The US is one of the few economies that is not officially easing into the their economy (I know some would say, easing is still happening... blah, blah!). This Christmas will be interesting, perhaps Yellen will give Dollar Bulls a present....

+1 Reply
IvanLabrie GreedyTrader
Interesting remarks, we will have to wait and see.
For me, the technicals are good enough to try a tight entry.
Sober_Colm GreedyTrader
Rate rises? I wouldn't be positioning myself in the expectancy of that. 0.25 maybe but then back to 0. How can an already broke economy possibly pay for mortgages, car loans, student debt etc at a higher rate than now without killing (the already dying) the economy. Looking at the retailers results shows that people already don't spend. These are the conditions under which the fed would usually lower-rates. I would caution against positioning for a continuous rate-rise cycle in the coming years. The market & esp the USD has been factoring in a rate rise all year so if it were to actually happen it should not be a shock to the fx market. It's when it turns out that it can't & won't happen over the long term that the realisation will kick in & the USD will be dropped. Just my 2 cents.
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