IvanLabrie
Short

USDJPY: Short now, abysmal targets

a year ago
I think it's worth it to try a short trade here, aiming to capture the following targets:

Target #1: 116.39
Target #2: 112.95
Target #3: 102.48 (monthly uptrend mode from 2011 to date)

Market sell at the open, place stops for each position at 123.96, and hold the trade until the end of November.
If we don't hit target #2 by then or earlier, and we're not stopped, it might be safer to get out.

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Regards,
Ivan Labrie
a year ago
Trade active:
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a year ago
Comment:
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Timing is key
a year ago
My views....timing is nice
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Timing is key Timing is key
a year ago
I also forgot to mention the most recent Top to Top is 96 months significant because it's a derivative of 24 hours in a day x 4 = 96. Important time counts all round
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IvanLabrie PRO Timing is key
a year ago
I think the weekly and daily are fairly interesting as well.
Worth a 2% shot.
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Timing is key IvanLabrie
a year ago
definately...can be pretty violent though...I don't often trade this pair but the turns are oh so pointy!!
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IvanLabrie PRO Timing is key
a year ago
This can be big...
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Timing is key IvanLabrie
a year ago
YEP....I try to target BIG moves...needs to crack this lower upward channel. Let's see how this unfolds
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IvanLabrie PRO Timing is key
a year ago
Grab some popcorn!
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Timing is key IvanLabrie
a year ago
LOL
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moorekapital
a year ago
I dont know, but I seem to have a different opinion, this time ;) But I submit to your experience. I may be very wrong.

Now that we're out of the box , I think that PB testing of box top for support is the ideal thing.
The basic tenets of Technical analysis: SUPPORT & RESISTANCE tells me that , once a RESISTANCE is rendered useless, price may use it as a floor next ;)

Now, when that is done, I see 125 as the ultimate target. But 124 first
USDJPY: BALANCED MARKET
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Timing is key moorekapital
a year ago
No, your understanding of when S/R breaks then becoming a role reversal level are excellent entry locations.may well keep going up..and present some nice st trades...I am looking at a more macro view 161 months back to be exaxt...I will be watching closely over the next few days...might get forkers opinion on the YEN...take care

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moorekapital Timing is key
a year ago
Thanks for clarity, Senior.
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darth.stocks moorekapital
a year ago
Hmmm, I see a giant double top targeting 113...
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I think you are a little early. I believe we would see a 135.00 extension before shorts come in. I do expect the Yen to do well once the market absorbs the shock of the rate rise from the FED. A lot traders will get caught out by the decoupling in the current inverse relationship between the S&P and the Yen. The problem is generations trading now would have been teens the last time we saw rate rises of 25 basis points every quarter, so no one really understands the impact of diverging monetary policy. The US is one of the few economies that is not officially easing into the their economy (I know some would say, easing is still happening... blah, blah!). This Christmas will be interesting, perhaps Yellen will give Dollar Bulls a present....

+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO TradersClub
a year ago
Interesting remarks, we will have to wait and see.
For me, the technicals are good enough to try a tight entry.
Cheers!
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Sober_Colm TradersClub
a year ago
Rate rises? I wouldn't be positioning myself in the expectancy of that. 0.25 maybe but then back to 0. How can an already broke economy possibly pay for mortgages, car loans, student debt etc at a higher rate than now without killing (the already dying) the economy. Looking at the retailers results shows that people already don't spend. These are the conditions under which the fed would usually lower-rates. I would caution against positioning for a continuous rate-rise cycle in the coming years. The market & esp the USD has been factoring in a rate rise all year so if it were to actually happen it should not be a shock to the fx market. It's when it turns out that it can't & won't happen over the long term that the realisation will kick in & the USD will be dropped. Just my 2 cents.
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TradersClub PRO Sober_Colm
a year ago
Well, I have to respect your point of view. In a sensible world I would agree with you, however the Federal Reserve Bank of NY, is a private entity and not interested in the American people. In fact it is a great that you the US economy would require more debt to pay for spiraling living costs. The FED can actually charge more interest on the debt with a higher base rate, it has been nearly 10 years with no money making, a 25 basis point or even a 10 basis point can't hurt to test the water.

I think the world just woke up to high finance, thanks to Google but this has gone on for years. In the UK rates were at 150 basis points at one point in the past. I bet they can't wait to get back there. Anyway, I think it has to happen because this cheap money train can't go on for or else it is 08 all over again. What for? So the stock market can stay up...
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TradersClub PRO TradersClub
a year ago
Sorry for the spell errors.
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TradebyRik
a year ago
How about this -
USD JPY likely to GO UP on medium term
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IvanLabrie PRO TradebyRik
a year ago
Maybe that's the case. I don't know.
The monthly is the scale I'm monitoring.
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N0th1ng TradebyRik
a year ago
We will see.
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KayJay TradebyRik
a year ago
good one
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Robski PRO
a year ago
Hi Ivan,

What indicator are you using to get the price profile on the right hand side, please?

thx

Rob
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IvanLabrie PRO Robski
a year ago
Volume profile, part of the pro plus suite.
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aibek
a year ago
Hi Ivan! Nice setup! Was waiting 1 week to enter, and went short on Friday (122.76). If C=A we can reach around 113, if 1.618 expansion then even lower, so best of luck to you!
Currently I see corrective wave 2 after leading diagonal it should calm down around 61.8-78.6%.
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IvanLabrie PRO aibek
a year ago
Definitely an interesting scenario!
Thanks for stopping by.
Let's see how it unfolds.
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aibek IvanLabrie
a year ago
You are most welcome amigo!
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aibek aibek
a year ago
by the way, JPN225 has same structure
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Shorts getting a bit jittery ahead of BOJ meeting on Thursday. Should be doubling down (maybe they are?), because if BOJ doesn't announce another planned bond purchase , USD/JPY will go down fast.
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IvanLabrie PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
a year ago
The stop here was almost hit.
In any event, it's lagging the S&P500.
I think it's still an interesting proposition.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Long time no see btw.
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