sublimares2

JCP- possible swings

BATS:JCP   PENNEY J C INC
821 67 7
Bullish divergence showing and a bullish pattern- yet there is a bearish continuation triangle pattern. If the gap will be filled than I expect a bottom @ 5.

Rebounds

Dashbridge
2 years ago
Wow, this is an incredibly detailed study. I just looked at the Harmonic pattern and put in an order. I might sell quicker than I thought. Thanks for this.
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sublimares2 Dashbridge
2 years ago
YW- this is a possible swing- not saying that will happen exactly- but I dare to post an idea/opinion. I am going to monitor JCP everyday and will post my thoughts.
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2use sublimares2
2 years ago
Im sorry, but you guessed basically all the possible outcomes. Although it did fail to go up to 8 before going to 5, it did end up at 5. And it did bounce off to 8. Gap was filled. whats the rectangle between 3.73 and 5?
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I'm liking the 6.20 area for future support ahead of earnings Feb. 24th.
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Your wishes are fulfilled :) so you think the bottom and reversal would be 6.20?
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
Well the rule for a double bottom is +/- 3% from previous bottom. It's better if we have a slight ascending bottom. Full measurements usually don't reach if we have a double bottom shape with -3% from previous bottom. -3% could put this bottom closer to $6.00
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I would not mind a dbl bottom with second leg at +/-3% but it bothers me the gap down that is very telling. Because of this I think we are getting lower then 3%
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
Could also be telling that stock is in a bearish trend, but that bearishness could continue in the form of a bottom support. That would also confirm an EVE bottom rather than what currently looks like a fast Adam bottom. Eve bottom would make sense given we have another 5 weeks till earnings report.
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Of course the gap is telling how serious the bearishness is but to me is a warning that I will have to adjust my measurements on the abcd pattern despite the ab=cd formation. This will help me to calculate a reversal point. I will do the possible reversal later today- however, the big picture- no matter where the reversal level will be @1.13% XA, or the bearish triangle pattern target- we have a beautiful bullish pattern with targets at least of 10. If things are getting improved we can see much better results.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
Do you also use chart patterns other than harmonics. For me chart patterns have shown to be much more reliable. Seems you're good at finding harmonics, why not try visualizing other traditional patterns?
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I have already posted that there is a bearish continuation pattern in form of a triangle- it is specified on chart too
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
I don't see a triangle pattern as defined by the rules set over many decades. Thomas N. Bulkowski probably put together the most research into chart patterns. He uses mostly the traditional chart types, rather than Fibonacci harmonic patterns. Here is the visual and rules of the Adam, Eve http://thepatternsite.com/aedb.html He has also started also using harmonics and is finding that they are far less reliable than those people trying to sell $5k workshops for harmonic patterns. Stockcharts also does a good job with the rules for a double bottom stock pattern http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_revers
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Now we have the chance to see how many things that supposed have been researched and written in stone are valid.
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I also do not see any indicators trigger of a bottom- and the price should be there at this point.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
Do you have an alternative harmonic or other theory if 6.20 to 6.30 is the stopping ground for JCP?
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
If we have dbl bottom in form of 6.20 or 1.13% or 1.27xa does not matter - we have an impulsive wave coming with first target of 10 something-the last high swing- a retest of the breakdown line - and the base of the triangle pattern. At this point things are going to get tricky and probably after this point the counter trade will come and finish the downtrend with the triangle target. This is my take. This pattern reminds me of $WLT.
If: the triangle target fails and the pivot 10 holds then we easily can see break of the long term downtrend.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
Well it's an interesting counter argument. Which I enjoy discussing any counter arguments, shapes my investing decisions.

Have you seen last year earnings estimates for 4th quarter (-.19) and the results for JCP (1.81)? Analyst are now giving JCP big leg room for a big beat with -.47 estimates for this year 4th quarter, which is usually there biggest. Analyst won't change future quarterly forecast, unless they see two consecutive beats. JCP will beat both 4th quarter and 1st quarter before the analyst start to see JCP is back to its old self prior to Ron Johnson took over as CEO.

I factored this thinking into my double bottom Adam-Eve chart pattern.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
that should say (-1.81)

sorry about that for those that are reading
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I should have add the second IF: see chart posted above: hitting the 5 or 3 level, the bullish divergence is present and an impulse wave from 5 (2) to 10. In this way we are done with the triangle target and see what patterns will forme.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
OK I see.. That is where we disagree. A little bit on price and a little bit on timing. It's ok if your a stock trader, but with options those little bits matter a big bit.
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Forgot to add: to me the most reliable patterns for swings and longer term view are harmonic patterns, for smaller time frame most reliable formations are the traditional chart pattern in addition with a trigger- and of course the ichimoku indicator. No matter what one choose to use, if it is increasing your chances in a positive way and makes you comfortable with the trading- this is what counts.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
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Well, I too also like to look at indicators and such trigger dates such as earnings (+previous years expectations were and compared to current estimates) when I plot my charts and speculate from there.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
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I'll probably publish something like this chart when we get closer to JCP earnings date.
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
When are going to be the earnings date? I recall sometimes in Feb- at the end of the month or so. For a bullish divergence we need the second leg (forming now) to be lower then the first one of 6.20 or so. This is another issue to take into account to establish a bottom/reversal.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
Feb. 24th after the market close. http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/j/jcp.html
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
Why do we need to see second leg now? Divergence can be a horizontal bottom (Double Bottom Pattern) while indicators are moving higher.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
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Maybe I should emphasis the divergence.
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
True, horizontal line on divergence is accepted- the issue is it takes 1-2 weeks to see the bullish divergence taken place (as in price action). So, in this period sideways or lower moves while showing bullish divergence is not uncommon.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
I even consider the slope differential rule for divergence - slope of price compared to slope of indicator
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
I'm not sure if I fully understand the 1-2 week idea for a daily chart. Maybe Monthly I could see your point, but not on daily.
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
e.g. last time when JCP went to 6.24 - the bullish divergence was beginning to show almost 1 week before the price bottomed (I recall making several times and days this remark of bullish divergence on JCP on chat) while the price was continuing to go down.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
Oh I see what you mean. Well we have 5.5 weeks before earnings, maybe will see the smaller divergence show up with the multi-month divergence seen above in the chart I posted. With your theory we will most likely bounce a bit next few weeks before going lower (if my above theory stands).
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
There you go: your targets on the chart are so harmonic pattern. I recall a saying: "dear child with many names":)
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
Yep really simple: Actual $6.25 + Leg 1 $4.05 + Leg 2 $4.05 = $14.35
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I would really like to know about the latest gap down- was it an institutional sell? very important aspect
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
I don't have the resources to find that up to date information. It's possible it was an insider sell that sparked or one of the 10%+ shareholders.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
*sparked the sell-off
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Dashbridge sublimares2
2 years ago
Hey sub, I believe it was the news of JCP closing down a 30 or so stores and laying 20,000 off.
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sublimares2 Dashbridge
2 years ago
I was thinking at the gap down that formed 6 days ago on 2014-01-08. I just cannot recall a piece of news that triggered this move. I find this move very peculiar in the light of the latest news- 6 days away:) about closing 30 stores.
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I am puzzled: what are those rules "set over many decades" for a triangle pattern? See my post below.
As for the reliability of the harmonic patterns- this issue I am not going to argue it. I am going to pointing out on charts. I have to agree with you that any site that is trying to sell workshops in any trading method- not only the harmonics- is questionable. The research into chart patterns formation is an open subject and this activity is not stopped with the Bulkowski s research. We are after all a cane sugar thinkers:) and would be a good idea to follow the patterns and make study remarks on them.
As for the dbl bottom on JCP and reversal with move for a breaking out of the downtrend- I do not believe we are at that level. I am not dismissing the Adam-Eve pattern in the future. Just my humble opinion.
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sublimares2
2 years ago
Decided to post a traditional pattern recognition since I can see there is a confusion over this issue. I hope this will help in the process of understanding the traditional patterns.

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sublimares2 sublimares2
2 years ago
An extended chart pattern traditional+harmonic and the way these patterns interact, where the technical target measurement of the bearish triangle has been projected and the PRZ of the harmonic ABCD is shown as prz level.
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sublimares2
2 years ago
E.g. uptrend and triangle
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sublimares2
2 years ago
I was looking at $IAG and noticed this triangle and I thought it would be a good study chart vs. triangle pattern in a downtrend and how a reversal is working and influences the outcome and target despite a broken resistance.
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sublimares2
2 years ago
A note to some people using to throw sites on people heads:

Since I have been attacked few times with Bulkowski and other famous pattern sites I am going to talk about it. No mean intend and I encourage to question and mostly important: to think independently everything you read and those patterns and statistics described by some authors.
I have read and processed in mind so many books and blogs about trading yet I cannot recommend one since all have tons of unnecessary informations (not sure if authors were really going after writing as many pages as possible-they succeed it in many cases) but I also found very important informations in 1- 2 sentences (from a 400 pages book e.g.).
I am going to talk about the double bottom Bulkowski and not very detailed since it would be too much.

http://thepatternsite.com/dbsetup.html

At first I was puzzled how a 36 years old retires after successful investment and 30 years trading. A bit misleading presentation for my 2 neurons. The first double bottom shown on the site- the CSCO chart that he named as an ideal setup for a double bottom. The chart is not showing the past levels or telling if these were the true bottom levels ever of the stock. The attention is drawn to the confirmation line/breakout and the reversal (retesting the breakout level) and everything revolves around the throwback and the statistically numbers. No indicators triggers as additional information. Nothing. But I am invited to buy his book if I want to know more. Well, the read was a big disappointment.
The next chart: ATG, showing a double bottom probably in a retracement process from the highest level the stock had it- again the chart is not showing much past information and the author is not taking into account this aspect. What counts is again the throwback and the statistically numbers.
The ANN chart is describing again a double bottom setup and again no idea if these were the true bottom levels or anything else that describes a technical relation or condition.
Now, for the very first time the 4 types double bottoms is introduced. Adam and Eve and some combinations. All I care is that the author declares Eve&Eve and Eve&Adam patterns as the best average rise patterns for double bottom. Why so? The statistics he conducted says so. No other explanations.

What I have been taught? Accordingly to this site a double bottom is anywhere on the chart where 2 pivots forms and what counts is if the throwback fails or not. The definition of the bottom can be misleading since this pattern can be also at 38% fibonacci retracement for a stock with a price of $700 and the real bottom would be at $34. I also need to identifying the pivot as Eve -Adam to weight my chances.
My question is: are we out of creativity and not able to define a clear behave and identification for a true double bottom and the fake one that happens at a level that is not reminding of a bottom at all? In this case a chart is filled with tons of double bottoms.
Is it this Adam and Eve in reality a question of support strength or is it something new in the field? After all the so called Eve is formed by multiple candlesticks testing the support and the second pivot of the double bottom if formed in the same way is only confirming the support strength and afterward is resulting a decisive rise. This is why statistically the double bottom pattern that tests support several time has better outcomes. But do I care about the statistic after all?

So, next time when e.g. a double bottom is shown on a chart or not - think twice before you claim : Bulkowski did not show this. He actually says a lot about statistic and thats all. To me is confusing and misleading informations that I cannot incorporate or use in real trading. You tell me what have you been taught by his site and not only posting the link like I represent the group of idiots and you hide behind a link.


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BitcoinMedusa PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
Dear Sublimares, I learn more from you and your charts than a hundred books! Keep blogging here on TradingView please! Don't go anywhere! And, if you would think on it, to do another session classroom? You let me know and I will host at your convenience. Sincerely, Beauty
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sublimares2 BitcoinMedusa
2 years ago
Thank you Beauty- too kind. I learn from all as well- normal, growing process in life. I just hope my posts are taken as intended - transparency and changing things in better. We will do something just January is a hard time for me- winther fatigue. Archh.
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sublimares2
2 years ago
To be only fair I am going to talk about an indicator that is supposed to show a bottom- in form of 2 cat ears. According to the originator- a TV member. I have been testing this indicator and now I am ready to talk about it.
While I was spending time on TV chat room I have noticed a group of traders changing coded messages. like "mayday mayday, nice cat" or nice ears, just anything that would remind of a cat and all the mortals would have no idea of the true meaning and other chat participants would have no clue of what was discussed between them. Sadly, a moderator was so involved in this behave. The story is funny.
This Duo Fisher 34,100 is supposed to warn of a bottoming of the stock- the sphynx cat ears:). I have noticed we have actually persian cat ears and sphynx cat ears, and not only just cat ears. I also noticed they shows nothing. but it is only a fancy ornament on a chart. Sometimes it is showing a divergence, most of the time- nothing, useless.
Mayday, mayday, - I cannot believe so many will go that far to talk coded for this so called bottom indicator. The same goes for the TRIX sausage- it is a TRIX indicator that includes like almost 11 Trixs from 5 to 15 or from 7 to 15 depends on the mood- accordingly to the same creator/originator.
Trix 9, 15 is giving the same information. The cloning is another interesting story. It is called cloning because TV chose to name the copy tool- cloning. This practice of "cloning" is an old channeling method. But if one can call it cloning than is supposed to be a new method. About channeling is a lot to be said and is ridiculous how wonderful work is reduced to ridiculous.
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sublimares2
2 years ago
JCP showing bullish divergence and probably will end up with an inverted hammer candlestick. It looks as a reversal and the alt bat harmonic pattern might be ready for an impulse wave of 7.8-8.3 or so.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
Well we cracked 6.20 area, previous support. Now we get to see if this is only a retest, or a total breakdown. Breaking above and holding our previous support at 6.24 would be a good sign, that a double bottom pattern is still in play.
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
last time the bullish divergence was present and price went down approx $1 and reversed. A swing of 1.13% or 1.27% is equal ok. Not to forget to mention that would also match the tech target from sym triangle. JCP is on my watch list even I do not believe into a huge impulse move.
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sublimares2
2 years ago
Update-info chart: earnings coming soon, attempted to break resistance 6.25 and not enough fuel this time. Question is how well the pivot low 5.02 is going to play the support- so far not much strength into it and it might find another pivot lower and probably the bottom low. It must remains to be seen. After earnings will be a good time to look up again the chart.
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sublimares2 sublimares2
2 years ago
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2use
2 years ago
Have no words - this just nailed it. Would you please make an update to JCP? This one was really popular as i see
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sublimares2 2use
2 years ago
Thank you- I appreciate it.
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2use sublimares2
2 years ago
In case you did not see my other comment. "Im sorry, but you guessed basically all the possible outcomes. Although it did fail to go up to 8 before going to 5, it did end up at 5. And it did bounce off to 8. Gap was filled. whats the rectangle between 3.73 and 5?"
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sublimares2 2use
2 years ago
Not sure I understand your comment but I will do my best. Whenever I draw a rectagle- depends on pattern I use- it is usually a PRZ.
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sublimares2 sublimares2
2 years ago
PRZ- potential reversal zone: it means the price can reverse anywhere between 5 and 3.75
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2use sublimares2
2 years ago
Thanx! Makes it clearer now!
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sublimares2 2use
2 years ago
The 8 level gap- did not fill as expected but this would not have an influence over the PRZ. I pointed out for those who would have been tempted to believe into an early reversal reversal and later to find that the downtrend is not resumed.
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2use
2 years ago
59 comments! this needs an update!
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sublimares2
2 years ago
Update: JCP is not an interesting long at the moment. It is at a level of clearance and short-term might go to 10 but the large rising wedge be pattern might be in play soon.
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sublimares2
2 years ago
NOTE- this is not a recommendation only personal opinions
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2use sublimares2
2 years ago
Note - thanx for them, there are people who have same thoughts and opinions of respected chartists are always welcome!
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2use sublimares2
2 years ago
PS - this is worth a new chart ;)
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sublimares2
2 years ago
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sublimares2
2 years ago
Update- warning of an impending move - finally something happens
Not much on chart since its a reminder for myself:)
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sublimares2 sublimares2
2 years ago
-3.22% The impending move is developing
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