Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X SharesArca
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Jnug Daily Chart
So far so good if you were in JDST. So the question is, was that the bottom. Did we reverse on Friday? Quite frankly I do not know. The cycle could have ended Friday but it could also run for one to two more days. I did not sell my JDST and am thinking Jnug drops a little more. I hope I am correct because that would be YUGE and then to buy JNUG would be even better. I just saw today on some other peoples weekend reports that they are now thinking what I have been saying, that this might not be the start of a new bull run. They are now thinking that we are in wedge just like I am leaning. (no one knows for sure). I think....that that green candle that Jnug put in on Friday was just a micro wave 4. (see how it did not break above the bottom of the other green candle). If I am correct, then wave 5 could begin on Monday and drop us down to my bottom yellow oval. When there is a bounce in Jnug, It may be short lived. Spot Gold will probably continue to correct into the FOMC meeting Wednesday. If they raise rates, then we should get a drop in Spot gold on that day and then another reversal run higher. But how high?
For the end of next week, ADP and NFP should be better than it has been in years. Why? because the jobless claims has dropped a lot. So on Wednesday if the ADP report is high then NFP will be as well. That should make gold go down into the FOMC. This does not mean that Jnug will also go down during that time. Jnug could rally IMO. Miners are not always correlated to spot gold price, remember? Plus the cycle for miners would have ended and the new one would have begun. So if the broader market rallies due to a great ADP and NFP report, then that could help prop up miners for a short term while gold drops into the FOMC meeting. Then when spot gold reverses that would accelerate Jnug up even higher.
By the way, there is a small bullish divergence on the RSI 5 below.
Don't forget about the reverse spilt coming for the 3x's. Makes me wonder if that is a foretelling of Jnug being given room to drop lower.....HMmmm time will tell. GL
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Jnug Update
(the following is just my opinion of what I think will happen tomorrow and what I am personally planning on doing, not trading advice). So, Not a bad day if you are holding JDST like I am. No I did not sell. I just have this feeling that Jnug is going to gap down below the gap fill line, which I put on the chart, AND I have a feeling that we are going to get a big swing day tomorrow. JDST closed above the 50 DMA and that is also promising. I am looking for a reversal hammer candlestick with a very big lower wick similar to the one I put a blue arrow pointing at on the left center portion of the chart in the snap shot. So I do not think that we will fill the next gap down for Jnug and I think we bottom at $4.43 range. As for JDST, no I do not think we will fill the gap above but I think JDST can get to $24.84 range before reversing short term. (I will post a JDST chart after this to show you what I mean). Back to the Jnug chart. I went ahead and measured the wave three price action and then moved it down to show the Elliot wave traders that Jnug can fall to my lower yellow oval and not violate the Wave 3 rule.
Here is the JDST chart GL
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OH well.. It does not look like it will completely do what I wanted for this last day. It looks like today is the bounce for Jnug. I will sell my JDST and buy Jnug today. I will probably hold Jnug for a couple weeks depending on what I see going on.
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Spot Gold Chart above
I think we are finished with the DCL for Spot gold. The RSI 5 has a hidden bullish divergence so we should get a bounce very soon. But I do not think it will be a huge bounce. I think is will be short lived. Reason being is that I the that Fridays NFP and unemployment rate will knock gold down. That and the following week is the FOMC meeting and with a very good NFP report, that will add weight to the rate hike. SO I am thinking up for a few days and then down lower for spot gold. Then if they raise rates the same behavior should occur for gold. Down for that day but then a rally of some shorts. I am just not sure how much of a rally will will get this time. Time will tell. As far as Jnug. I am really bummed that we did not drop one last time. We seemed to retest that old downtrend line that we broke last month. I am guessing that we are finished in this cycle for miners. So I sold my JDST position and bought Jnug at $5.55. Not bad. I am really curious to see how Jnug does through this NFP report into the FOMC meeting next week. While I am expecting a bounce, it might not be super strong at first due to spot gold possibly getting knocked down. BUT....at the same time a great report could help the broader markets and possibly help the miners. It is hard to tell because miners seems to flip flop back and forth as far as correlation to the different markets. But I am expecting a stronger bounce following the rate hike. Lastly, the open interest price targets have been bouncing around again today. So here is the updated Jnug chart. GL
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Just a quick note.....DO you all see how Spot gold is way down this morning but Jnug has not made a lower low. We are flat this morning. Flat because gold is down but the cycle for miners has started new. (It's a tug of war) When and if spot gold can make a little bounce, Jnug will rally fast with it. Otherwise I think we (miners) will probably stay flat this week into Wednesday.
Agree. Do you think there is a possibility that gold will downtrend to intermediate cycle low and the Jnug still stay flat at the meantime?Thanks SalN.
SalN
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we just completed a ICL which ended on Dcemeber 15th. So no not yet, its too early. People are calling it that because this DCL is longer than normal. But if they were to believe in the idea that we are in a sideways wedge consolidation, then they would understand the price action as not being an ICL. Hoever, that being said, Gold should bounce starting the day after next WEdnesdays FOMC meeting. I just don't know how much of a bounce we will get. But it is possible that next WEdnesday will start the new cycle for spot gold and it could be a left translated cycle. In other words, it could drop hard for a while. My cycle analysis has an ICL to happen anywhere from mid April to early June. @bingwu,
@SalN, thanks! Any possibility that jnug will directly rally to higher high instead of down to yellow oval position before FOMC meeting? Any conclusion when will be gold DCL as miners daily cycle will end Monday.
SalN
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Of course there is a "possibility" it goes higher right away. I am simply posting what my thoughts and perspective are. I cant give trading advice. I just enjoy posting the charts and express what I believe is the most likely price movement. If Jnug drops today then I am personally buying it because I believe that the new cycle will begin this week maybe today or tomorrow if it did not already start on Friday. I cannot predict the exact date for anything, but only a best guess. No one can predict with 100% certainty. As far as Spot gold, I think it will find its DCL next week maybe on Wednesday. @bingwu,
bingwu
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@SalN, Wonderful guess for you! Now it seems Jnug goes down and the new cycle will begin. Although may not touch that low due to strong spot gold. Thanks for you response.