Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X SharesArca
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I was on vacation out of the country for the last week so I have not been able to update anything. But there really was not much to update. So to cut to the chase, it is my feeling that we are not finished dropping yet for gold. I am expecting gold to drop into oversold on the RSI 14 and also drop below the march low before having a legitimate bounce. So lets look at todays action. Gold burst up but miners barely moved. That should raise eyebrows and signal caution if you are looking to go long. If you are dead set on going long, what would it hurt to wait a little bit for confirmation. If you are wrong, then it will hurt a lot if my opinion is correct and Gold and Jnug drop. It appears to me that Jnug is working out its wave 4 and should provide a 5th wave soon. We have a short term bounce playing out from a small bullish divergence from last week. But there is a larger hidden bearish divergence that has formed and that should be respected. And as for gold, well, I am not going to repeat myself again, but I am waiting for it to drop to the longer term trend line which is in the mid 1170's at this point. There is a large gap that formed this morning by the way. There is also that gap above. I wouldnt be surprised to see jnug fill the upper gap before dropping but I am hoping to be spared the agony of waiting any longer. I am also expecting gold to drop thanks to the breakout in the broader market. By the way, I called that. GL on your trading
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Gold Chart
By the way, today marks 21 days since gold last touched the 20 DMA. So is it that mush of a surprise that we finally tested it and might I add, got firmly rejected by it. I think the final drop for this ICL will happen soon. We also closed back below the 200 DMA. My wave count may be wrong but I don't rely just on wave counts because it can be deceiving and complicated. Just watch all these experts on youtube change there opinions and/or give multiple wave counts...You have to ask yourself, ..."well, which is it"?
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Sorry about not posting for a while....I have been frustrated with this indecision in miners. So as you have all discovered, gold started another daily cycle bounce back on the 10th. (I will post that chart in a bit.) But miners have been very weak compared to gold. Last year if gold made a move up like the one we just had, Jnug would have moved 10% - 20% per day. But instead it did 1.5 - 4% per day. Very weak and lame to sit through if you ask me. So I thought I would just wait. I think I have identified the cycle for miners again. We will see how it plays out this time. But as you can see, the shorter term cycle would end in the middle of golds daily cycle and so I think we just see Jnug drop to test the trend line and then do another weak bounce. The thing that concerns me though is....the weakness in the dollar, the fact that I feel the market will make a decent correction very soon and propel gold higher, and seasonality for gold, and lastly.... the insanely high number of experts saying that we are about to breakout in gold now. Lets also not forget that August is decently strong for gold followed by the strongest season of September. Although that didn't matter for 2016. So I drew in my thoughts for Jnug with the idea that the cycles may be a better price dictator for the next month or so. Jnug Chart But If Jnug stays weak even with gold running somewhat strong now....then I do believe that Jnug will drop hard in early September....maybe even starting in late August. As you can see on my Jnug chart, that should also be the time when this Daily cycle for gold should bottom. Some thoughts on gold in a little bit.
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Gold Chart SO I believe that these cycles for gold are correct....for now. I do not really think we will have a breakout but time will tell. We are alreay more than half way through the yearly cycle. Remeber gold yearly cycle bottom in mid December 2016. The yearly cycle runs anywhere from 12 - 14.5 months. So that means it should turn down in October or November. Based on my current cycle measuremmts, if they hold, I think gold will make its big decision out of this long term wedge, in Mid October to November. But this current pattern looks like a large head and shoulders. I will post the weekly chart and zoom out so that you can see it. One thing is for sure, which ever way gold breaks out from this huge long term wedge, it will be shocking if you are on the wrong side of it.
3 questions, don't you think we saw the ICL at 1206? So wouldn't we be risking a decent move up still in the current cycle?
Have you seen the COT report? it's one thing that makes me doubt the volidity of the going to 1170 in the current cycle. It seems like the short trade is a crowded place currently. And smart money has been reducing their positions for the past 4 weeks. What are your thoughts?
SalN
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Yes I always look at the COT report. There is always a risk. No one is perfect. I watch other peoples wave opinions and see different ideas. But I am just staying with what I think while keeping in mind the other opinions. No I do not think we completed a ICL yet. But I think we did complete 5 small waves down for an "a" I think we will/are seeing a "b" now and that could end soon or take a couple weeks. Then I am looking for a "c" wave down to that mid 1170's area. I also see a couple hidden bearish divergences on the RSI 5. On the RSI 14 .... it never reached oversold and had a little more to go in my opinion for an ICL. Of course I might be wrong but that is my view. Also note that miners really did not do much of anything with the gold spike. And on a smaller time scale, gold appeared to complete 5 mini waves up over the last few days. I am also looking at the miners chart which seems to show only 4 waves completed and that we still need to compete wave 5. So that is also making me lean short term bearish for gold. But by all means, do what makes you feel comfortable. Like I said above, it may be a good idea to just watch for a little while to see a move. If it does go down like my opinion, then that would be an easy jnug buy don't you think. @dsankie21,
@SalN, Thks, nice call. Yes, I agree with y. My target for gold is about 1180 range, what I am looking for next week at about Thursday 20th. After bottoming could miners rise at about mid August. For GDX is main support the 20.89. Patience. I sold all my JNUG and looking for next low.
dickinson
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@SalN, Gold is breaking up and now is going at 1265 level as a first stop. GDX should reach at about 24 range at mid August and JNUG adequately more. Expect short squeeze and bears loose their money. After that rally will gold going more down. GL.
dsankie21
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@SalN, thanks for replying back. I've been in JDST since 6-28-2017. I don't typically hold it for that long. I am expecting gold to go down below 1200 and it hasn't come. I'm wondering if my timing is off and I should lock in profits. It's a very difficult read.
SalN
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@dsankie21, it wouldn't hurt. Then just wait to buy into Jnug.
sherrytradingview
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I can enlarge it by clicking but can't move it. Thanks!
SalN
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@sherrytradingview, is this what you were looking for? I think we a, b, c, correction and started to move down into wave 5. Since there was no change in direction after abc and since we continued lower, I think this is a correct count.