Jnug to Gold "week of the Fed" 3/11/17
I almost didn't do a analysis this weekend because it seems pretty obvious to me now that Jnug is going up for the short term. Just look at the price action last week. Gold was falling but clearly Jnug was flat. I knew that it wanted to go up and towards the end of Friday afternoon, once spot gold turned around, Jnug flew. So what's next for Jnug? I think I will show two scenarios. A conservative one and a wishful thinking one that could happen as well. So the blue arrows are the conservative path that I think is very possible. As you can see, the black 10DMA is just above the closing price. And we are just below a notable resistance area (blue line $6.36). So it is very possible that Jnug drops a little to retest the breakout level into FOMC before moving higher. But then I look at spot gold, and I see a reversal candlestick that bounced off a downtrend line and think that if spot gold continues up even a little bit, and the broader markets also continues up, then we might just gap up, at least over the 10 DMA and possibly over the $6.36 area and fly up for two days to the very strong $7.75 area before slightly consolidating for a few days. Then up again.
I keep hearing everyone talking about the dollar in a head and shoulders pattern. Maybe they are correct. But the Yen doesn't look that way at all. In about two weeks we should get an idea (bearish or bullish) of where the intermediate trend is going to be headed. Gold usually rallies hard immediately after a rate hike... just like it did in December through February 2015/16 and also just like it did this December through Feb. So if gold does not rally hard...AND break out of the wedge, then that should sound the alarm bells because gold may actually make a lower low. Much lower. If gold is going to make a lower low, then this year would be its absolute bottom.
Up next my spot gold chart
I keep hearing everyone talking about the dollar in a head and shoulders pattern. Maybe they are correct. But the Yen doesn't look that way at all. In about two weeks we should get an idea (bearish or bullish) of where the intermediate trend is going to be headed. Gold usually rallies hard immediately after a rate hike... just like it did in December through February 2015/16 and also just like it did this December through Feb. So if gold does not rally hard...AND break out of the wedge, then that should sound the alarm bells because gold may actually make a lower low. Much lower. If gold is going to make a lower low, then this year would be its absolute bottom.
Up next my spot gold chart
Comment:
Yen Chart
Comment:
Jnug
Well that was a pretty good day. We closed strong and I think that bodes well for another big green day for Jnug. I am NOT an Oracle, just saying what I think will happen. Tomorrow is Tuesday, and if you have been reading my stuff for a while, you would know that I tend to think that price action will change on Tuesdays or WEdnesdays (if it will change at all) due to the COT report cut off. So I am thinking one more green day, I am looking to reach that resistance area at about $7.75 range and then I just think the rate hike will bring Jnug down for a few days. I am hoping for back to $6.36. If I see Jnug falling then I will try to pick it up again at $6.50 - $6.36 range, depending on what I see. It might be wiser to just hold but I am going to chance it. Do your own trading, I am just expressing what I am planning on doing. But as you know, you have to be ready for the unexpected. So just because I am planning on this course of action, does not mean it will happen.
Last little thing, I have this feeling that Jnug will not reach the upper yellow oval ($10.45 range) but only the one below that ($9.60 range). I will have to see how we are doing and where we are in the week and cycle to decide whether or not I will chance it and hold longer. GL
Well that was a pretty good day. We closed strong and I think that bodes well for another big green day for Jnug. I am NOT an Oracle, just saying what I think will happen. Tomorrow is Tuesday, and if you have been reading my stuff for a while, you would know that I tend to think that price action will change on Tuesdays or WEdnesdays (if it will change at all) due to the COT report cut off. So I am thinking one more green day, I am looking to reach that resistance area at about $7.75 range and then I just think the rate hike will bring Jnug down for a few days. I am hoping for back to $6.36. If I see Jnug falling then I will try to pick it up again at $6.50 - $6.36 range, depending on what I see. It might be wiser to just hold but I am going to chance it. Do your own trading, I am just expressing what I am planning on doing. But as you know, you have to be ready for the unexpected. So just because I am planning on this course of action, does not mean it will happen.
Last little thing, I have this feeling that Jnug will not reach the upper yellow oval ($10.45 range) but only the one below that ($9.60 range). I will have to see how we are doing and where we are in the week and cycle to decide whether or not I will chance it and hold longer. GL
Comment:
Spot Gold Chart
If you notice, price is butting up against a convergence of moving averages. We have the 100 Weekly MA, the 20 weekly MA, and then the 100 daily MA coming down. That's a hell of a lot of resistance. I am not so sure it can bust through until something big helps it....like maybe ummmm, a rate hike? And yet, Jnug has been flying higher... Just goes to show you that Miners is not perfectly correlated to spot gold. Just imagine how Jnug will move once gold cuts through. Just some food for thought.
If you notice, price is butting up against a convergence of moving averages. We have the 100 Weekly MA, the 20 weekly MA, and then the 100 daily MA coming down. That's a hell of a lot of resistance. I am not so sure it can bust through until something big helps it....like maybe ummmm, a rate hike? And yet, Jnug has been flying higher... Just goes to show you that Miners is not perfectly correlated to spot gold. Just imagine how Jnug will move once gold cuts through. Just some food for thought.
Comment:
Jnug the day after
Wow and wow. what a hell of a move. Glad I held my Jnug through that terrible day prior. So I am just going to take a guess here as to what I think could happen. I measured the first impulsive move up with the Fib and then adjusted it to the bottom of the red candle yesterday, and as you can see the only thing that appears to be left is the 1.618% stretch at approx. $8.47. So I am planning on selling Jnug if it reaches there AND appears to be pausing. I am expecting a consolidation for a couple days at that point with such huge moves. By the way I also took a price measurement of the entire move (assuming) the move makes up to the 1.618% level, and assuming this is an ABC correction, I moved it to the area where there is support and low a behold the top of that measurement reached that first yellow oval area. I always find it fascinating to see these types of things line up that way. It does not mean it will work out that way but just something to think about if price action starts to move the way I just described. GL
Wow and wow. what a hell of a move. Glad I held my Jnug through that terrible day prior. So I am just going to take a guess here as to what I think could happen. I measured the first impulsive move up with the Fib and then adjusted it to the bottom of the red candle yesterday, and as you can see the only thing that appears to be left is the 1.618% stretch at approx. $8.47. So I am planning on selling Jnug if it reaches there AND appears to be pausing. I am expecting a consolidation for a couple days at that point with such huge moves. By the way I also took a price measurement of the entire move (assuming) the move makes up to the 1.618% level, and assuming this is an ABC correction, I moved it to the area where there is support and low a behold the top of that measurement reached that first yellow oval area. I always find it fascinating to see these types of things line up that way. It does not mean it will work out that way but just something to think about if price action starts to move the way I just described. GL
Comment:
Jnug
SO I sold Jnug today because it was looking weak and decided to take profit. SO now I am looking, hoping, for Jnug to move back down to the 10DMA so I can buy back in. The 10 DMA has already started to turn back up and Jnug usually does not stay away from it very long. So if we get there tomorrow then I am hoping to buy Jnug at $6.36 - $6.40 range. However, I am wondering if we kind of chop in the $6.36 - $7.75 zone through next week. Maybe bouncing off the 20 DMA to come back down to the 10 once last time before moving higher. That would make sense from an Elliot Wave stand point if we are now starting into a Wave B and just completed Wave A. But once we get into April, I am looking for the cycle to start coming to a close and I will probably move into JDST sometime in the last week of March. I also drew an orange downtrend line from two recent peaks. I am not sure if it is relevant yet but I like to try to draw stuff in so I don't forget about it. GL
SO I sold Jnug today because it was looking weak and decided to take profit. SO now I am looking, hoping, for Jnug to move back down to the 10DMA so I can buy back in. The 10 DMA has already started to turn back up and Jnug usually does not stay away from it very long. So if we get there tomorrow then I am hoping to buy Jnug at $6.36 - $6.40 range. However, I am wondering if we kind of chop in the $6.36 - $7.75 zone through next week. Maybe bouncing off the 20 DMA to come back down to the 10 once last time before moving higher. That would make sense from an Elliot Wave stand point if we are now starting into a Wave B and just completed Wave A. But once we get into April, I am looking for the cycle to start coming to a close and I will probably move into JDST sometime in the last week of March. I also drew an orange downtrend line from two recent peaks. I am not sure if it is relevant yet but I like to try to draw stuff in so I don't forget about it. GL
About two weeks ago I thought that gold breaking above a certain level nullified the 5 wave structure. But now I have to wonder if this was just a false breakout. And maybe gold is making a head and shoulders pattern inside a 4th Wave. I don't like to be biased and completely sell myself to one side. I like to keep an open mind to all that is presenting itself to me. So like I said earlier, after this rate hike, gold will rally BUT if it doesn't breakout of the wedge, then that would be very very bearish and I would be leaning towards seeing a much lower low.