Jnug to Gold Mid October 2016
Are we about to start wave 5? I say yes and I am excited for it.
If wave 5 is the same or bigger (as I have heard some analysts say for ) than wave 3, then I have worked out two possible price targets to reach probably Tuesday or Wednesday. A 100% Fib gain of wave 3 is approx. $16.58 which is coincidently right at about a resistance line, and near a down (marked with the tan oval). My best case scenario price target is a measured move of the potential pattern that appears to have been formed (refer to chart). The next move up (which is also wave 5) is supposed to be similar to the depth of the cup to the brim. So I drew a pink vertical line to measure the depth and then move it up. The approx. price target from that measurement is $18.36 (2nd tan oval). Oh and by the way….the 2nd oval happens to be the approx. level that the 50 DMA will be by Tuesday or Wednesday. Reversion to the mean??? Lets also not forget that the upper BBands are also descending fast with the 50DMA. HMMMMM!
report shows a reduction even though the price went up for the most part. This suggest strength.
dried up during the wave 4 consolidation. So I am looking for a Volume/price push early next week.
Lets talk about Gaps.
I have no doubt we fill that big gap just above up to the $16.12 on the 2 hour chart. Also keep in mind that there are two smaller gaps that just formed below our current price during the last week+. This suggests that we come back down to fill the gaps.
The questions that remain is what comes next after wave 5? Well typically there is a correction. Elliot wave suggests a 50% - 60 % correction of the entire move. But this is a micro impulse in a correction and the open interests price targets have some low PT’s in the next 3 weeks which leads me to believe that we are in an ABC correction pattern where we will finish “A” at the end of wave 5 and then a sideways to lower chop for Correction wave B through November. November 2nd is FOMC day which might carry a little bit of pressure for gold.
Then there is the dollar. My chart should explain it all. But longer term, I think we push up to just over the 100 mark through January 2017.
There just so happens to be a plethora of Fed speakers at the beginning of the week. Maybe that aides the price push up as they have recently turned dovish in their comments. On Tuesday the 24th, Consumer confidence is expected to be down and that might really give the big gap up bounce I am hoping for. On Wednesday the 25th, there is the Advanced goods trade balance and PMI. There is also the oil report. I am expecting the oil to go up for its next wave and that will help prop up the markets which will in turn “help” prop up jnug. Thursday though, I am expecting the Durable goods and jobless claims to be good and turn gold and Jnug down. And the nail in the coffin is on Friday. GDP is expected to be good and that will tank gold and Jnug short term into the following week.
Last little note I forgot to add. Options just expired on Friday and “they” say that once that clears then price should go up the following days. We will see.
With so much stuff happening in the coming weeks, I expect a lot of volatility. I obviously disagree with some other analysts that say we go up up up from hear.
So I am actually interested to see who gets it right. I am also expecting a big spike in Jnug end of November beginning of December. But that’s a little too far out to call yet. Though it would complete the right shoulder.
As always, if I forgot something I will update it later. Thanks
So I was looking at my chart and other peoples charts and realized that it appears that the micro 5 wave count for corrective wave C might not be finished yet. Even though we have had a huge correction and even though you have heard others say we have bottomed and it is up up up from here, we must consider this very possible alternative which I put in the above chart.
If wave 5 of C is not complete then Jnug might drop all the way to mid $7 down to $6.25 before shooting back up. So lets keep that in mind. While I do believe we move up early next week, IF this new theory is correct, then the most upside we may see could end at $15.73.
IT sure looks like we are not down with our Wave 5.
Today's low was spot on previous Fib 23.6 level and I think we saw a small dead cat bounce (or half of it) at the second half of the day.
The new "micro"-Fib from todays high/low would bring us down to 10.63. Previous "major" Fib would bottom out at 9.5 (again).