Jnug to Gold
As my data changes, I will update posts and charts as early as possible.
Is anyone not confident that we go up?
I believe we had our bottom today and a nice reversal. Gold should follow soon. I believe that we are going to get some economic data in our favor either tomorrow, but most likely Friday, that will launch this thing. I am looking at reaching $16 by Friday. That would affectively close that gap that was made yesterday and put us back into the blue . It also looks like we may stay inside the blue for the next 2 - 3 weeks until we break down hard again. But I digress. Back to the short term. I believe that the economic data will be bad enough to propel Jnug and gold up. That momentum will carry us through to the upside until at least Wednesday morning for the JOLTS reports. SO I have a target of approximately $21.50ish for a top by mid next week. So for those of us that bought Jnug today or yesterday, you could have a 100% gainer on your hands. Not bad. A gift set up by our big money bank robbers.
When we do break down from that , I cannot begin to predict where it might bottom. I have a hard time believing that we make a new deeper bottom, but then again, if we are left translated as it appears we will be, then that is possible. Too early to tell. However, the blue trading channel appears to be our course for October into November. If anything changes then I will update.
Then if the pattern is in fact going to play out, then it makes sense that we turn sideway for mid November and early December to complete the shoulder. We will see. If we are going to create a pattern then it makes sense that we do not break the neckline which we came very close to hitting today. So late October early November could bounce off that neckline instead of the channel bottom. Just something to think about and be prepared for.
Hope this helps.
So I zoomed out a little to get a better perspective. Couple things I would like to address.
1st - After breaking the blue channel today, I wondered....HMMMM WTF!?
So I copied the black broken pattern resistance line at the top and pasted it to todays bottom to see how it would fit. Perfect fit. Just when I think I've got a trading channel they (their Algorithm's) can tweak it. And this does not mean that we will stay in this channel. However, it is possible that we hit the top of it by next week. So I am counting on the numbers tomorrow to be bad and for this to gap up. The biggest that I have found Jnug to gap up was 6/02 (2 hr Chart) approx. $2.15. More likely though it will gap between $1 and $1.50.
2nd - I was just curious, about a head and shoulders pattern so I drew it out. Also, If you notice the long Purple line coming down from the top left. It is almost perfectly identical to the black uptrend line going the opposite direction. Just something to keep in mind. None of this has to happen.
3rd - If you change over to the weekly, the Ichimoku Cloud suggests further weakness ahead. Does not mean we cant bounce.
We KNOW there is action coming up... either we recover and JNUG goes back up or JNUG goes into free-fall and JDST goes up.
Logically: See which way we move and either double down on JNUG or JDST - one will go up and will go up hard!
My money is on JDST by Monday - I lived in China for years... they really do like gold A LOT. I forsee 20's within a week!
And, aside from charts, indicators also show that both Gold and miners are in the oversold territory.
We could even potentially have one of those skyrocket Fridays tomorrow after the morning volatility around the NFP. Another option could be hungry for cheap Gold Chinese market participants getting back online on Monday as SalN mentioned earlier.
However, having said all that, keep in mind that this is market and nothing is impossible. It's all the game of probabilities.
The only thing that puzzled me is his Fib 0.618 retracement price of $1,267.20. According to my estimate below, measured between $1,046.54 lowest low and $1,3754.15 highest high for the recent bull run, that price sits at $1,249.62. That's two mere cents away from today's low of $1,249.60 so far!