4xForecaster
Long

$JNUG: High-Prob. Rally Into 23.0 | $NUGT $GLD #gold #euro $AUD

AMEX:JNUG   DIREXION DAILY JUNIOR GOLD MINERS INDEX BULL 3X SHARES
955 25 15
Friends,

I prefer not to dwelling in lower timeframe charts (e.g.: M15, H1) simply because they are often subjected to aleatories of higher timeframes where institutional traders tend to live.

However, I have been in this one right before the splits, entering at 2.061 this past mid-December 2015, and been following this pawn either directly, or via other gold             correlates.


In this particular case, I simply want to mention that, following a successful series of "Target-Hits" using the Wolfe Wave and Geo             principles, there appears to be yet another opportunity at this point to consider a LONG opp             , based on the attainment of an ectopic Point-5 position via its (not-so-random wandering) Point-5-prime excursion, or 5' - See chart below:


snapshot


Using the Off-Set Rule of the Geo             , which states that:

1 - If price rallies from Point-5, it will seek to attain 1-4 Line as its highest probability event (This is the Wolfe Wave expectation),

Whereas,

2 - If price rallies from Point-5', it will seek to attain the price level corresponding to Point-4 as its highest probability event;

and

3 - If price rallies from Point-5'', it will seek to attain the price level corresponding to Point-3 as its highest probability event.

In this particular condition, we are looking at the Geo's OffSet Rule from the perspective of a 5-prime position. Hence, the highest probability event that could ever occur here is the rallying of price to the level correspinding to Point-4, namely the 23.00/23.38 range.

Note that an earlier predictive analysis and forecasting was effected on this ETF , in which 29.16 would represent the timeframe shifting value (i.e.: the level beyond which an analysis would require a 4-fold level timeframe of consideration, as a condition of the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which defined that 29.16 target this past May 02nd 2015). This simply mean that a 4-fold consideration would bring the analysis from a H1 to a H1 x 4 = H4, or 4-hour timeframe.


OVERALL:

The background geometries are calling for a rallying into the high-probability level defined by the OffSet Rule of the Geo             , whereas a foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model maintains a bullish outlook on a much larger time scale.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----


.
Comment: 02 NOV 2015 - I will bring in the most recent analysis to keep chart chronology separate from discussion thread - Following is a cut/paste of recent analyses:

=======================
14 OCT 2015 - Educational Trade Info (not a trade recommendation):

Just entered this short-opp based on completion of expanding triangle, targeting the travel height of Point-A:

snapshot


David Alcindor


TYPO - Target date is 14 OCT 2015 (i.e.: today's date, and not 24 OCT) - Reporting chart:

snapshot


David Alcindor


Chart as of market close ... After market activity:

snapshot


David Alcindor


15 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:

$JNUG falls at the open; Entry occurred at Point-E - Target remains unchanged:

snapshot


David Alcindor


16 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Using the "ATHENA | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chatroom, where I post most of my pre-publihshing analyses on this new geometric methodology, here is what was written about the most recent price action concerning $JNUG:

==============================================
16 OCT 2015 - Re: $JNUG:

Whereas the prior bars validated the A-C Line to the downside, it alerted traders of the market's intention to decline further (orange square). The next bar was short, but validated the A-C Line's underside as added confirmation that the rallying above the A-C Line was probably over:
snapshot



What occurred next was the validated of the internal B-D Line off of Point-C, where the 1-hour bar prior to market closing rested but did not close below. Here too, market offers a respectable signal on its intention.
snapshot



Only the next bar down - during the market's after hour activity - do we get added confirmation that price is bound to the opposite sides of the ATHENA geometry.

Have a fantastic week-end!


David Alcindor
==============================================


19 OCT 2015 - Re: $JNUG:
After Point-E completion, price marches precipitously across opposite side of the geometry:
snapshot


David Alcindor


... Chart Update:
snapshot


David Alcindor


Re: $JNUG - Just got out of a sold-put at 75+% gain. Staying out and awaiting this potential retracement ... From an Elliott Wave standpoint: Looking at a protracted consolidation in this upcoming wave-4 correction. Rule of Alternations should apply, but look at the line interaction as well.

Yes, the overall pattern is an Elliott Wave Expanding Triangle, wherein the internal are typically 3-3-3-3-3. However, upon completion of Point-E, expect a forceful motive wave or leading triangle formation.
snapshot


David Alcindor


21 OCT 2015 - Re; $JNUG:

It appears that a Leading Diagonal formed the recent downswing, followed by a 5-wave bullish impulse, then a 5-wave bearish impulse with price closing market at a B-D Line resistance:
snapshot


David Alcindor


26 OCT 2015 - Re: $JNUG-H1:

... Price continues to validates B-D lines moving forward, following last validation of the A-C line on last spike:
snapshot


David Alcindor


28 OCT 2015 - Re: $JNUG-H1:

Expecting rejection from internal EW's ET:
snapshot


David Alcindor


29 OCT 2015 - Re: $JNUG:

Just a beautiful completion of the ATHENA along the method's opposite predicated B-D Line parallels.
snapshot


David Alcindor


02 NOV 2015 - Re: $JNUG ... Hit contra-lateral B-D Line:
snapshot


David Alcindor
=====================================================
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Here, we close this trade with a straight-forward "Target hit', as the market closed in slight excess of the 32.55 target, defined this past October, 14th, 2015.

This represents one of the many educational opportunities I freely share on TradingView. Feel free to share this and other on-going educational trades I constantly offer. Simply follow me, share with friends, peers and family if you believe this might enhance their interest in advanced technical analysis.

Thank you for your kind referrals I continue to receive. If you are interested in discovering high-probability set-ups, follow me to receive educational trades in Forex, commodities, metals, stocks and indices - See link following this update.

Best,


Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: @4xforecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: http://www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
-----
Comment: ANNOUNCEMENT: "Brain Chatter Rooms"


There are several "Chatrooms" in which I do most of the "brain chatter" with myself. These rooms are more like back-stage "ateliers" where I prepare trades in advance. You are welcome to wipe the dust off of the windows and peek in. The glass is rather thick, so I rarely reply to taps on the glass or even shouts from the door. I work very late hours in the ER and I use these moments to collect thoughts, ideas, concepts, and lay it out there in the open.

Following are a few of the rooms where I prepare trading ideas before they become shared on Twitter, Linked-In, Google, Facebook, StockTwits and TradingView communities - So, if you want to have first peek, feel free to stop on by. If I don't reply and it smells like coffee, it's because I might be in the basement, hammering other charts in another "brain chatter" room:


$BTC | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#nG7jDhaJhHHw8Vya


$GBP | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#bZqW5FlhT8pAHG3O


$CAD | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#HdxRFUvVWTjG9b6T


$EUR | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#7HTVurNyJ5DowtvZ


$NZD | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#bgEqXd7ORktSJznD


Metals | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#QHPeo09xhTSe8Chl


Stocks | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#XlzEojkKuqMNZchu


Indices | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#PXhY0z4cjc1NGGnB


Commodities
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#PjgJtIACnrHizR6O


* * * Archives of Hit Targets * * *
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#i3wn5TOs6r0WY2p2



===================================

* * * NEW PATTERN METHODOLOGY * * *

ATHENA - Geometric Methodology Of An Elliott Wave Pattern:
... Letting the reciprocal lines tell you where to hold, stop and go

Here is the latest room I opened - Here too, not much peer to peer chatter. Just free-sharing a new pattern methodology. If you liked the "Geo", then have fun with this one:


ATHENA | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
- https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#x0ZJVZ9JQjlrtd7Y
===================================


Feel free to capture and share links - I do apologize ahead for not immediately or rather rarely replying to inquiries within these chatroom - Best is to contact me through the threads, such as this one, where the discussion can reach a far greater number of traders and benefit not just the chatroom participants, but the larger community of traders here on TradingView and outside.

Also, these chatrooms are not spaces where I would engage traders into circular arguments, as I really have no opinion of the underlying market for which the analyses are provided. This is all educational, and if you need real trading advice, seek that of a certified professional - I am a non-certified life-time student of the market. I am the author of several proprietary (i.e.: not for sharing) patterns (Great White, Janus, Euclid) and lesson-based shared methods (EAGLE, AFT), but I do spend most of my time double tasking between broken people and breaking markets.

Best,


David Alcindor


PS: If you like certain charts, ideas, concepts, then given it a thumbs-up so I know which one to delve into and which one to lay off of. And, if you think these are ideas that can advance the edification of a peer, then I thank you ahead for sharing - I don't make money via memberships. Just trading my own ideas and free-sharing ... Just a better credential, if I may say so.

Cheers to your profitable trades,

David
Comment: 08 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As just explained to @millie, while this lower-frame set-up presented itself as a high-probability educational trade, there remains the fact that targets that were defined this past summer (July 20th, 2015) still remain unanswered.

So, I will continue the analysis of $JNUG on this page, now calling in the DAILY and 4-Hour charts, with an update on the morphology of the geometry - See the early discussion thread below, where the targets and geometry were defined and discussed at length.

Here is for now an update of the DAILY chart:
snapshot


Note that the background geometry remains that of a Geo, whereas the foreground targets from the Predictive/Forecasting Model remain intact and still in force, namely:

1 - TG-Lo = 6.23 - 20 JUL 2015

AND

2 - TG-Lox = 3.52 - 20 JUL 2015

Whereas this are Quant-Target, they behave in increased reversible power, but have a lower probability of attainment. This simply means that the "extreme-low ("TG-Lox") offers a lower probability of being hit, but if it did, it would tend to impact a much more forceful reversal on price than if price hit TG-Lo instead.

I have NOT ascribed a WL value (which can be considered as an invalidation level), considering the single-digit level that are present.

More on this DAILY chart as price evolves.

Best,

David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Hi David,

Is the model bullish after hitting the B-D line or the target 32.55? Thanks.
+1 Reply
Hello @millie - The orange triangle implies a cautionary action (in a trade, I would have taken my position out by about 80%), whereas the red implies a full exit:

snapshot


David
+1 Reply
AdrianM 4xForecaster
I think millie is asking for next target
+1 Reply
@AdrianM - 32.55, IF and once B-D line gets crossed.

David
+1 Reply
millie 4xForecaster
If price breaks below 32.55 - is there a projected downside from the wedge?
+1 Reply
Hello @millie - At this point, since the geometry completed, it might be best to return to the higher timeframe.

As you may recall, the DAILY and 4-hour charts defined a probable Geo, with targets defined as:

1 - TG-Lo = 6.23 - 20 JUL 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 3.52 - 20 JUL 2015

It is these targets that we should be turning to, since the higher timeframe remains a controlling actor when compared to smaller timeframe - As these targets remain in force and unanswered, it is now most prudent to simply return to the DAILY and perhaps the 4-hour frames.

I will post an update on these in a few moment.

David
+1 Reply
Hello @AdrianM - Yes, Got it.

Next target remains the same as what was defined this past summer, on July 20th 2015:

1 - TG-Lo = 6.23 - 20 JUL 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 3.52 - 20 JUL 2015

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
rvg 4xForecaster
Did you realize your 17 Sept 2015 post with TG-Lo = 6.23 and TG-Lox = 3.52 was prior to JNUG's reverse split? I think $6.23 would be today's equivalent of around $30?
Reply
Hello @millie - I am reviewing the messages, and see that I have not completely answered your question ... In a way, I did by suggesting that all analyses of $JNUG are best recovered off of the DAILY chart (and perhaps the 4-hour chart as well), but the direct (belated) answer is NO.

No, the line I defined was NOT a Model's target. If was defined off of the base that defines the amplitude (height) of the corrective wave which defined point-A, as well as a reversal off of Point-B. I chose this target as a probable level of retracement, but NOT reversal. Applying the Model here defined a quantitative target as well, so no likely that a reversal would occur at this level.

Thank you kindly for your patience.

David
+1 Reply
millie 4xForecaster
Hi David,

No problem! Thanks for the excellent analysis.

I had recalled the lower targets you gave before the 1/5 split. So the next lower target could be in sight given 31.15 (6.23) was hit Friday.
+1 Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
Deutschland
France
España
Italia
Polska
Türkiye
Россия
Brasil
Indonesia
Malaysia
Việt Nam
日本
한국
简体
繁體
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Priority Support Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out