4xForecaster
Long

$JNUG: High-Prob. Rally Into 23.0 | $NUGT $GLD #gold #euro $AUD

AMEX:JNUG   DIREXION DAILY JUNIOR GOLD MINERS INDEX BULL 3X SHARES
945 25 15
2 years ago
Friends,

I prefer not to dwelling in lower timeframe charts (e.g.: M15, H1) simply because they are often subjected to aleatories of higher timeframes where institutional traders tend to live.

However, I have been in this one right before the splits, entering at 2.061 this past mid-December 2015, and been following this pawn either directly, or via other gold             correlates.


In this particular case, I simply want to mention that, following a successful series of "Target-Hits" using the Wolfe Wave and Geo             principles, there appears to be yet another opportunity at this point to consider a LONG opp             , based on the attainment of an ectopic Point-5 position via its (not-so-random wandering) Point-5-prime excursion, or 5' - See chart below:


snapshot


Using the Off-Set Rule of the Geo             , which states that:

1 - If price rallies from Point-5, it will seek to attain 1-4 Line as its highest probability event (This is the Wolfe Wave expectation),

Whereas,

2 - If price rallies from Point-5', it will seek to attain the price level corresponding to Point-4 as its highest probability event;

and

3 - If price rallies from Point-5'', it will seek to attain the price level corresponding to Point-3 as its highest probability event.

In this particular condition, we are looking at the Geo's OffSet Rule from the perspective of a 5-prime position. Hence, the highest probability event that could ever occur here is the rallying of price to the level correspinding to Point-4, namely the 23.00/23.38 range.

Note that an earlier predictive analysis and forecasting was effected on this ETF , in which 29.16 would represent the timeframe shifting value (i.e.: the level beyond which an analysis would require a 4-fold level timeframe of consideration, as a condition of the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which defined that 29.16 target this past May 02nd 2015). This simply mean that a 4-fold consideration would bring the analysis from a H1 to a H1 x 4 = H4, or 4-hour timeframe.


OVERALL:

The background geometries are calling for a rallying into the high-probability level defined by the OffSet Rule of the Geo             , whereas a foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model maintains a bullish outlook on a much larger time scale.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----


.
a year ago
Comment: 02 NOV 2015 - I will bring in the most recent analysis to keep chart chronology separate from discussion thread - Following is a cut/paste of recent analyses:

=======================
14 OCT 2015 - Educational Trade Info (not a trade recommendation):

Just entered this short-opp based on completion of expanding triangle, targeting the travel height of Point-A:

snapshot


David Alcindor


TYPO - Target date is 14 OCT 2015 (i.e.: today's date, and not 24 OCT) - Reporting chart:

snapshot


David Alcindor


Chart as of market close ... After market activity:

snapshot


David Alcindor


15 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:

$JNUG falls at the open; Entry occurred at Point-E - Target remains unchanged:

snapshot


David Alcindor


16 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Using the "ATHENA | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chatroom, where I post most of my pre-publihshing analyses on this new geometric methodology, here is what was written about the most recent price action concerning $JNUG:

==============================================
16 OCT 2015 - Re: $JNUG:

Whereas the prior bars validated the A-C Line to the downside, it alerted traders of the market's intention to decline further (orange square). The next bar was short, but validated the A-C Line's underside as added confirmation that the rallying above the A-C Line was probably over:
snapshot



What occurred next was the validated of the internal B-D Line off of Point-C, where the 1-hour bar prior to market closing rested but did not close below. Here too, market offers a respectable signal on its intention.
snapshot



Only the next bar down - during the market's after hour activity - do we get added confirmation that price is bound to the opposite sides of the ATHENA geometry.

Have a fantastic week-end!


David Alcindor
==============================================


19 OCT 2015 - Re: $JNUG:
After Point-E completion, price marches precipitously across opposite side of the geometry:
snapshot


David Alcindor


... Chart Update:
snapshot


David Alcindor


Re: $JNUG - Just got out of a sold-put at 75+% gain. Staying out and awaiting this potential retracement ... From an Elliott Wave standpoint: Looking at a protracted consolidation in this upcoming wave-4 correction. Rule of Alternations should apply, but look at the line interaction as well.

Yes, the overall pattern is an Elliott Wave Expanding Triangle, wherein the internal are typically 3-3-3-3-3. However, upon completion of Point-E, expect a forceful motive wave or leading triangle formation.
snapshot


David Alcindor


21 OCT 2015 - Re; $JNUG:

It appears that a Leading Diagonal formed the recent downswing, followed by a 5-wave bullish impulse, then a 5-wave bearish impulse with price closing market at a B-D Line resistance:
snapshot


David Alcindor


26 OCT 2015 - Re: $JNUG-H1:

... Price continues to validates B-D lines moving forward, following last validation of the A-C line on last spike:
snapshot


David Alcindor


28 OCT 2015 - Re: $JNUG-H1:

Expecting rejection from internal EW's ET:
snapshot


David Alcindor


29 OCT 2015 - Re: $JNUG:

Just a beautiful completion of the ATHENA along the method's opposite predicated B-D Line parallels.
snapshot


David Alcindor


02 NOV 2015 - Re: $JNUG ... Hit contra-lateral B-D Line:
snapshot


David Alcindor
=====================================================
a year ago
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Here, we close this trade with a straight-forward "Target hit', as the market closed in slight excess of the 32.55 target, defined this past October, 14th, 2015.

This represents one of the many educational opportunities I freely share on TradingView. Feel free to share this and other on-going educational trades I constantly offer. Simply follow me, share with friends, peers and family if you believe this might enhance their interest in advanced technical analysis.

Thank you for your kind referrals I continue to receive. If you are interested in discovering high-probability set-ups, follow me to receive educational trades in Forex, commodities, metals, stocks and indices - See link following this update.

Best,


Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: @4xforecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
-----
a year ago
Comment: ANNOUNCEMENT: "Brain Chatter Rooms"


There are several "Chatrooms" in which I do most of the "brain chatter" with myself. These rooms are more like back-stage "ateliers" where I prepare trades in advance. You are welcome to wipe the dust off of the windows and peek in. The glass is rather thick, so I rarely reply to taps on the glass or even shouts from the door. I work very late hours in the ER and I use these moments to collect thoughts, ideas, concepts, and lay it out there in the open.

Following are a few of the rooms where I prepare trading ideas before they become shared on Twitter, Linked-In, Google, Facebook, StockTwits and TradingView communities - So, if you want to have first peek, feel free to stop on by. If I don't reply and it smells like coffee, it's because I might be in the basement, hammering other charts in another "brain chatter" room:


$BTC | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#nG7jDhaJhHHw8Vya


$GBP | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#bZqW5FlhT8pAHG3O


$CAD | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#HdxRFUvVWTjG9b6T


$EUR | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#7HTVurNyJ5DowtvZ


$NZD | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#bgEqXd7ORktSJznD


Metals | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#QHPeo09xhTSe8Chl


Stocks | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#XlzEojkKuqMNZchu


Indices | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#PXhY0z4cjc1NGGnB


Commodities
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#PjgJtIACnrHizR6O


* * * Archives of Hit Targets * * *
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#i3wn5TOs6r0WY2p2



===================================

* * * NEW PATTERN METHODOLOGY * * *

ATHENA - Geometric Methodology Of An Elliott Wave Pattern:
... Letting the reciprocal lines tell you where to hold, stop and go

Here is the latest room I opened - Here too, not much peer to peer chatter. Just free-sharing a new pattern methodology. If you liked the "Geo", then have fun with this one:


ATHENA | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
- https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#x0ZJVZ9JQjlrtd7Y
===================================


Feel free to capture and share links - I do apologize ahead for not immediately or rather rarely replying to inquiries within these chatroom - Best is to contact me through the threads, such as this one, where the discussion can reach a far greater number of traders and benefit not just the chatroom participants, but the larger community of traders here on TradingView and outside.

Also, these chatrooms are not spaces where I would engage traders into circular arguments, as I really have no opinion of the underlying market for which the analyses are provided. This is all educational, and if you need real trading advice, seek that of a certified professional - I am a non-certified life-time student of the market. I am the author of several proprietary (i.e.: not for sharing) patterns (Great White, Janus, Euclid) and lesson-based shared methods (EAGLE, AFT), but I do spend most of my time double tasking between broken people and breaking markets.

Best,


David Alcindor


PS: If you like certain charts, ideas, concepts, then given it a thumbs-up so I know which one to delve into and which one to lay off of. And, if you think these are ideas that can advance the edification of a peer, then I thank you ahead for sharing - I don't make money via memberships. Just trading my own ideas and free-sharing ... Just a better credential, if I may say so.

Cheers to your profitable trades,

David
a year ago
Comment: 08 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As just explained to @millie, while this lower-frame set-up presented itself as a high-probability educational trade, there remains the fact that targets that were defined this past summer (July 20th, 2015) still remain unanswered.

So, I will continue the analysis of $JNUG on this page, now calling in the DAILY and 4-Hour charts, with an update on the morphology of the geometry - See the early discussion thread below, where the targets and geometry were defined and discussed at length.

Here is for now an update of the DAILY chart:
snapshot


Note that the background geometry remains that of a Geo, whereas the foreground targets from the Predictive/Forecasting Model remain intact and still in force, namely:

1 - TG-Lo = 6.23 - 20 JUL 2015

AND

2 - TG-Lox = 3.52 - 20 JUL 2015

Whereas this are Quant-Target, they behave in increased reversible power, but have a lower probability of attainment. This simply means that the "extreme-low ("TG-Lox") offers a lower probability of being hit, but if it did, it would tend to impact a much more forceful reversal on price than if price hit TG-Lo instead.

I have NOT ascribed a WL value (which can be considered as an invalidation level), considering the single-digit level that are present.

More on this DAILY chart as price evolves.

Best,

David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
MaxKobe
2 years ago
Very nice chart and analysis. Thank You very much for sharing both! GL
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO MaxKobe
2 years ago
Welcome - Thank you for recognizing my contribution.

I hope it helps.

David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
20 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
-----
$JNUG mulls these two bearish Predictive/Forecasting Model targets in nascent Wolfe Wave:

snapshot


#gold $USD $AUD $CAD
-----


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
20 JUL 2015 - Tech-Note:

As price is carving out deeper lows, the overall geometry is also bringing up a larger encompassing WOlfe Wave.

For this reason, I have effaced the lesser, internal geometries and brought up this dominant Wolfe Wave ("WW") instead.

Although most WW require that Point-5 validates the 1-3 Line, it is not a requirement, as long as the gist of the 5-point moves remains intact.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
24 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$JNUG nears its bearish target; Increases reversal probability:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $GLD $AUD $CAD $CHF #euro #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
As $JNUG traverses WW, Predictive/Forecasting model remain unanswered following 1.414 #fibonacci hit:

snapshot


$XAU $NUGT
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
11 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$JNUG remains open to limited downside; Predictive Model unanswered at 6.23 and 3.52 bearish targets:

snapshot


#gold $XAU


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
17 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
14 OCT 2015 - Educational Trade Info (not a trade recommendation):

Just entered this short-opp based on completion of expanding triangle, targeting the travel height of Point-A:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
TYPO - Target date is 14 OCT 2015 (i.e.: today's date, and not 24 OCT) - Reporting chart:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Chart as of market close ... After market activity:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
15 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:

$JNUG falls at the open; Entry occurred at Point-E - Target remains unchanged:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
16 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Using the "ATHENA | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chatroom, where I post most of my pre-publihshing analyses on this new geometric methodology, here is what was written about the most recent price action concerning $JNUG:

==============================================
16 OCT 2015 - Re: $JNUG:

Whereas the prior bars validated the A-C Line to the downside, it alerted traders of the market's intention to decline further (orange square). The next bar was short, but validated the A-C Line's underside as added confirmation that the rallying above the A-C Line was probably over:
snapshot


What occurred next was the validated of the internal B-D Line off of Point-C, where the 1-hour bar prior to market closing rested but did not close below. Here too, market offers a respectable signal on its intention.
snapshot


Only the next bar down - during the market's after hour activity - do we get added confirmation that price is bound to the opposite sides of the ATHENA geometry.

Have a fantastic week-end!


David Alcindor
==============================================

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
millie PRO
a year ago
Hi David,

Is the model bullish after hitting the B-D line or the target 32.55? Thanks.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
a year ago
Hello @millie - The orange triangle implies a cautionary action (in a trade, I would have taken my position out by about 80%), whereas the red implies a full exit:

snapshot


David
+1 Reply
AdrianM 4xForecaster
a year ago
I think millie is asking for next target
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO AdrianM
a year ago
@AdrianM - 32.55, IF and once B-D line gets crossed.

David
+1 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
If price breaks below 32.55 - is there a projected downside from the wedge?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
a year ago
Hello @millie - At this point, since the geometry completed, it might be best to return to the higher timeframe.

As you may recall, the DAILY and 4-hour charts defined a probable Geo, with targets defined as:

1 - TG-Lo = 6.23 - 20 JUL 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 3.52 - 20 JUL 2015

It is these targets that we should be turning to, since the higher timeframe remains a controlling actor when compared to smaller timeframe - As these targets remain in force and unanswered, it is now most prudent to simply return to the DAILY and perhaps the 4-hour frames.

I will post an update on these in a few moment.

David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO AdrianM
a year ago
Hello @AdrianM - Yes, Got it.

Next target remains the same as what was defined this past summer, on July 20th 2015:

1 - TG-Lo = 6.23 - 20 JUL 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 3.52 - 20 JUL 2015

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
rvg 4xForecaster
a year ago
Did you realize your 17 Sept 2015 post with TG-Lo = 6.23 and TG-Lox = 3.52 was prior to JNUG's reverse split? I think $6.23 would be today's equivalent of around $30?
Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
a year ago
Hello @millie - I am reviewing the messages, and see that I have not completely answered your question ... In a way, I did by suggesting that all analyses of $JNUG are best recovered off of the DAILY chart (and perhaps the 4-hour chart as well), but the direct (belated) answer is NO.

No, the line I defined was NOT a Model's target. If was defined off of the base that defines the amplitude (height) of the corrective wave which defined point-A, as well as a reversal off of Point-B. I chose this target as a probable level of retracement, but NOT reversal. Applying the Model here defined a quantitative target as well, so no likely that a reversal would occur at this level.

Thank you kindly for your patience.

David
+1 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,

No problem! Thanks for the excellent analysis.

I had recalled the lower targets you gave before the 1/5 split. So the next lower target could be in sight given 31.15 (6.23) was hit Friday.
+1 Reply
rvg 4xForecaster
a year ago
Your 17 Sept 2015 post with TG-Lo = 6.23 and TG-Lox = 3.52 was prior to JNUG's reverse split. Did you realize this?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO rvg
a year ago
Hello @rvg - Yes. I realized this. @millie was also pointing this out in a recent comment, and somehow it had not occurred to me to revise the values within the Predictive/Forecasting Model

Here is the WL line value as of today ... I will keep the older targets in the field with a "pre-reverse split" qualifier (just curious to see whether the Predictive/Forecasting Model carries any surviving relevance relative to the pre-reverse split event) - Thank you @rvg and @millie for this kind nudge.

I am also keeping the larger (blue) geometry in sight, as its morphology remains intact, but not necessarily relevant, now that the reverse-split may risk a change in price pathway ... Both of these situations have never been tested before, so beware - Still, the new WL is now in force and the only relevant feature of the Model in this chart.

snapshot


David
+2 Reply
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