Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X SharesArca
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With the break of the black trend line yesterday, that suggest that there is much more downside ahead for Jnug. I did not think this drop was coming so soon. I was thinking in a month or two. So I was wrong. But now it appears that we are in a downward channel. And I have a feeling we are going to fill at least the next gap if not the December low gap. The 50 DMA crossed the 100 DMA a week earlier than I was predicting which led to a big sell off. Especially once that trend line was broken. Once the trend line was broken, all the stops that were set just below it were triggered and that led to a very big sell off. The next set of stops may be around the $4.20 mark. But we could get a small bounce to retest that trend line that we broke yesterday. Not to mention, gold is starting it trek down to its ICL. That will bring this down more IMO. We should get a little bounce soon but nothing too big. Sell off are called bloodbaths for a reason. IT can be a brutal market and just when you think you are on top of everything, it throws you a curve ball a little early. That is why you must have stops in place. I am out of Jnug for now until I see it reach a strong support area.
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watching price action today...with that dip below that gap fill...I am thinking a good place for a short term bounce (one to two days) may be the next gap fill at 3.77ish. If we drop there today or tomorrow, I think a bounce would follow before the final big drop. And yes there is going to be room to drop more. The reverse split for Jnug will make more room.
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Jnug 1 hour chart
I still think we are going to drop further. It appears to me that the latest big drop that occurred the last couple of weeks, was a wave 3 down. I believe that that wave 3 is complete and we are now working on wave 4. I showed how I think there will be more upside early next week to at least touch the black trend line at just under $5 which should also coincide with the falling 10 DMA. There are still two gaps below and plenty above now. The lowest one is down to $3. While spot gold may bounce around for a little bit longer before a big drop, I am sure that the big drop in gold will begin soon. This drop will take us down to 1220's at the very least. This is just my opinion. And that kind of drop will create a lot of downward pressure on Jnug. So I am going to probably buy JDST around the $18 range and see what happens. If we do get another good drop, I look forward to buying into Jnug to fill all those gaps above. Remember that the reverse split is this week. That means that all the prices that we are referring to right now will visually change but be the same relatively speaking.
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I'm expecting that Jnug rally starting tomorrow. However, I'm looking for a little more of a drop in the morning to completely fill the gap at the very least. We had a partial fill today. I can't post a chart because my lines did not adjust with the reverse split. I'm bummed.
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So for this bounce in Jnug which should get going after tomorrows FOMC meeting (they will not raise rates). I am calling for a bare minimum Jnug price target of the top of the 2nd gap ($22.27 area). But if you look at the chart, that is really not that far away. So I am really looking at $26.30 to $27.80, which would be the top of the channel. GL I still cant post a chart because it is still messed up from the reverse split and Tradingview is not getting back with me about fixing it.
So ure thinking 4.3ish for JNUG on Monday? Then a bounce to 4.9ish?
Well, without the split of course...
SalN
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@Matce, i'm not so convinced it will go much lower than were closed I think it's pretty good chance it will just go up
dickinson
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@SalN, not sure, if your count is correct. In my mind last high was at Friday and now started final wave down. So question is how deep. Dependence of wave structure. We will see later.
dickinson
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@Matce, I my mind started c wave down, not going up at 5´.
SalN
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@dickinson, that's fine. Maybe I'm off a little bit. But I also think down medium term. I just usually expect a back test of broken trend lines before dropping further. Maybe we got close enough last Friday. Maybe not.
SalN
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@SalN, I probably should have been more clear. When I said Jnug go up, I meant very short term. Like just for the day. And then down.
dickinson
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@SalN, After this retracement (micro wave a bit up), then lower low.
SalN
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@dickinson, i'm expecting at the very least the first two gaps to be filled above
MrRick
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@SalN, That's all I ask. Fill the 2 gaps and I'll have a few bucks in my pocket. Then let the dump trucks move in.
SalN
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@MrRick, trust me. The dump truck will move in. Especially when gold itself finally starts its sell off
Well, without the split of course...