AMEX:JNUG   DIREXION DAILY JUNIOR GOLD MINERS INDEX BULL 3X SHARES
2 months ago
3 Hours Chart

Well this is the first week in the last several weeks that I did not hit my mark. We gapped up and that looked like a strong opening but then went down the rest of the day. Can’t be right 100% of the time. But I am still confident that we will go higher in the coming couple weeks.

1st – lets address the yellow arrows that I put in my chart for this last week. That is put there to show my mistakes on Friday of last week calling price direction for this week. So what did I do wrong? Last Friday, Price dropped into my target area and filled the gap just like I thought. My thought was that it would bounce from there and on Monday, that’s what it did until an intraday turnaround lower. What I forgot to do was check Volume to help me see that we hit a low and short term trend change. Had I not forgotten that, I would have seen that we had diminishing volume suggesting that we had further downward price movement to go. Earlier I said that usually, but not always, I have found that these trend changes tend to happen on Tuesday or Wednesday. Well on Wednesday it dipped deep and then swung up huge with a volume spike and that should have been my signal to sell Dust and buy Jnug             . I left several thousand dollars on the table with that mistake. So shame on me for forgetting. Ill try not to forget about that next time. Someone remind me for the end of October.

Moving on to next week

I should start off by saying, I am simply not sure. Jnug             and gold             both showed weakness this week. The economic data on Thursday and Friday was slightly better than expected with the exception to PCE. However, Monday is Day 1 of China’s currency being allowed in to the SDR             currency basket. I am not sure if that will have any positive affect for gold             so we will have to wait and see. I doubt it will have any affect. We did see a nice rally in the broader market today, the day after Germany announced their Deutsche bank collapse. This might be the start of people pulling their capitol out of Europe and trying to find a safe haven in the US markets. This could be the start of a strong rally in the markets. Jnug             seems to usually go up when our markets go up, just not today. That being said, I’m just not sure about price direction for next week. So while we could have a typical Jnug             spike for a day or two, which I would welcome, I feel we are going to churn mostly sideways, relatively speaking. I hate sideways movement.

My strategy for next week

I am holding my Jnug             . I will be watching to see if we have a decent spike in Jnug             early next week. If we spike to reach the top of the wedge, then I will sell Jnug             no later than the 4th to allow my funds to settle for the Oct             7th unemployment report. IF I sell, I will be looking for a buying opportunity on a dip. That would be the best case scenario I could see for next week. Worst case scenario, that I see, is a sideways grind along the bottom edge of this wedge. I do not see us breaking down below the wedge. My data does not point to that happening yet. I see us finding a top in mid October before starting a two week decline to end this cycle. The data on October 7th will be the key to how high we go the following week. As of today, my price target for October 14th is the $23 range. If October 7th data is worse than expected then I see us running up high and then settling there on that Friday. That would also coincide with spot gold             possibly finally breaking out of its bull flag. I just don’t think its going to be a huge break out. Not even to $1400. I’m looking at a minimum of 1345 but most likely 1360 1370’s. Otherwise, it might be just a hard climb for Jnug             . After that, we should stair step down the rest of the year.
2 months ago
Comment: So what just happened this morning is called an undercut low. There is nothing to predict such a move. All cycle analysis goes right out the window. There was nothing significant about any economic data today to have a move. All that happened to trigger this move was Hawkish words from a Fed Member. That's it! So people will call this type of move, "manipulation". I would tend to agree. About two days ago, a veteran cycle analyst, Gary Savage, said he would not be surprised to see an undercut low in gold. What he was referring to was big money creating this move so that people freak out and sell them their shares at a very low price. That way big money gets to buy at a phony bottom. Its real in that it is happening as we speak but phony because it should have never happened. So, since I have seen this before, and since the veteran analysts have seen this before, I will not sell and try to leverage down. I will weather the storm. It sucks short term. But the rally that should follow should be quite big.
AaronSwan PRO
2 months ago
Very good analysis, I am holding as well and looking for an exit strategy with some profits. It is also nice that you use cycles as well, I have been explained that there will be new highs in gold in October based on cycles. October is a long month and exactly when these highs will come is key. Where do you have your cycle count?
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SalN AaronSwan
2 months ago
I am toying with the idea that miners has their own cycles not too far removed from spot gold. A couple posts ago I wrote about how in August, Jnug put in a decline that resembled a ICL while gold only put in a short term DCL. I have also noticed that jnug was forming what appears to be a shorter short term cycle that seems to last 4 - 5 weeks. So to answer your question, I think Wednesday was the end of this short term cycle, so day two.
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SalN SalN
2 months ago
The fuchsia vertical lines are my estimate for short term cycle and the thicker black vertical lines (4 - 5 months) are my estimate for ICL cycles.
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VirtualFax
2 months ago
Your analysis gets better and better. Thanks for your hard work.
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AaronSwan PRO VirtualFax
2 months ago
Yes spot on with our other friend
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Billeci
2 months ago
Thanks for the insight, SalN!

As you noted, this morning looked very strong for the miners! I waited for a pullback off the premarket and made a small entry in the lower $18's. Clearly, wasn't the right entry point, but should prove to be good enough if your analysis holds true. As you've noted, I've been playing JNUG/JDST based on gold's up/down action within the triangle. When we're getting close to the top, I look for an entry in JDST. If I make a lackluster entry, I hold my trade(s) until the price moves favorably as gold drops towards the bottom.

With this morning's price action, I thought we were getting the nod that we would be consolidating back up towards the top of the triangle (knowing the action will get tighter). Gold's waterfall clearly put a damper on things. In fact, without it, I think this would have been a 20% plus day for JNUG with the Dollar dropping and the stock market popping. If you were holding JDST, you had to wonder why you didn't see the 20% plus day!

Moving forward, I held my JNUG position, along with another I took on Wednesday when I cleared my JDST position and swung into JNUG (unfortunately, even though it was a profitable move, I didn't play the trade nearly as good as I could have!) with today's strength in lieu of gold dumping and with the plan that gold will move higher towards the top of the triangle.

Thank you again for your insight, SalN, it's greatly appreciated!
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VirtualFax
2 months ago
Still Gold seems to want to revisit $1,300 area again (at a minimum), I still think the best case scenario would be re-tagging $15.20 line; while, in the worst (and likely) case, a support line able to put a stop to the current downtrend needs to be found below that price.

There is, obviously, also a gap in between $10.60 - 12.90. If Gold slides below $1,300, anything is possible.

Personally, I've been on side lines since I was stopped out last Tue. I'm not willing to commit my money until I see Gold bottomed in the recent downward move.
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SalN VirtualFax
2 months ago
Yes. I saw that gap today actually. Still we are very oversold. I think we are still due for one more pop and then probably down to fill that gap. The economic data keeps holding things up. Somethings gotta give either way soon. One analyst that I follow was talking about an undercut low to Get big money the best position for the leg up. We will see
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VirtualFax SalN
2 months ago
Mind sharing your analyst? : )
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SalN VirtualFax
2 months ago
Yes. I follow two. I do not ever believe everything they say. I follow them because they are both slightly in opposition as to what comes next. I like to compare their points of view. 1st - Gary savage. 2nd. Larry edleson.
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VirtualFax SalN
2 months ago
Yes, I know exactly what you mean by not believing everything. Neither do I. Whatever I read, I only do so for the sake of scanning for new ideas that might enhance my own analysis. I never rely on other people's conclusions.

Anyway, thanks for sharing.
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VirtualFax SalN
2 months ago
And I wouldn't call it very oversold. RSI is 41, while both MACD and Stoch still have room underneath on daily. And, obviously, with each s/t pop that room gets only roomier to accommodate even more downside if needed.
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VirtualFax SalN
2 months ago
Now we have a chance to close the gap as soon as today or tomorrow...
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VirtualFax VirtualFax
2 months ago
200 MA as a first potential reversing point??

If doesn't hold (and, honestly, I don't expect it to hold), then there seem to be nothing else preventing JNUG from closing the gap.
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VirtualFax VirtualFax
2 months ago
Will be placing my buy order at $9.63 with a tight stop. Yes, very conservative, I agree, but Gold seems to be targeting its own 200 MA.
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SalN VirtualFax
2 months ago
hey. draw a trend line from the last two big dips. approx. 7/25 and 8/31 and then extend it to just past today. This may be a channel that we are in. This also might bottom today or tomorrow and bounce. I am not sure if that gap gets filled this time. Just a heads up.
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VirtualFax SalN
2 months ago
Thanks man, appreciate the heads up!

I'll draw the lines as suggested and will analyze.
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VirtualFax SalN
2 months ago
I think this what you meant, which, based on my scrambling below, also gives her time until the election to close the gap. Thanks again, SalN, your tip was very helpful for putting things in prospective. Let's now see how it actually plays out...

snapshot
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SalN VirtualFax
2 months ago
yep.. That's what I was looking at. Hey I have not been able to figure out how to add charts in the comments section or my update section. Can you tell me how
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VirtualFax SalN
2 months ago
Easy - there is a little camera icon on the left from the "PUBLISH IDEA" button. You click on it, it'll generate a link of the chart on the screen at the moment.

You just copy the link and paste it into your comment anywhere. Once you hit "Post Comment" the link turns itself into the chart you captured.
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SalN VirtualFax
2 months ago
Yeah.. I got as far as seeing the link but did not hit post comment so I never saw if a chart would appear. ok thanks
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