Nikkei 225 (JP225) LONG — 4H ALMA Setup (WR 77%)

█ SETUP

Nikkei 225 · JP225USD · 4h · long only.

ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 4 bar to add / 3 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.

Strategy Tester (JP225 4H):
Win rate 77% · profit factor 2.1 · max drawdown 10%
Avg winning trade +2.9% · avg losing trade −2.8%
Typical hold ~54×4h bars · Japan cash / Asia session index sleeve



█ WHY NOW

Asia morning bar — 4H ALMA long on 2 Jul 05:00 UTC ~69,447 as regional indices sold off on the global AI-chip scare ( KOSPI halt · NIKKEI suppliers weak in headlines).

Systematic refill on the same 77% WR 4H template that has carried the index sleeve since late June — strategy fired on bar close, not a discretionary dip-buy.

Hard stop zone −10% from this add ~62,500. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop.

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█ MACRO

Sector: Nikkei 225 = Japan large-cap beta — exporters, banks, and chip-linked suppliers drive the index more than a single macro print.

Tape (2 Jul): Asia session opened red — chip-led selloff on OpenAI efficiency / Meta compute headlines while US jobs data loomed; Japan underperformed alongside Korea on the same narrative.

Execution is 4H ALMA on the OANDA index proxy, not a BoJ or yen forecast.

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█ OUTLOOK

Positive factors
- 77% WR · PF 2.1 · max DD 10% · avg win +2.9% vs avg loss −2.8% — tight index sleeve with positive skew
- EMA — execution TF: 4H Below · Cur S:7 vs Avg S:8.6 · Dev +2.1% — young below-session, price near the line (mean-reversion fuel for the long)

- EMA — LTF: 1H Cur S:2 vs Avg S:9.7 — compressed hourly sell-time before the Asia refill bar
- SMC — 4H demand: FVG Enter Bull ~69,788 on the 2 Jul 06:00 bar — bid-side inefficiency tagged just after the 05:00 entry print

- SMC — 4H events: same session FVG Raid Bull at ~69,688 — liquidity grab into demand, not a clean breakdown
- June 4H index journal tagged multiple strategy take-profits on sister legs before this refill — sleeve has recent exit history on the same underlying

Negative factors
- SMC — 4H supply: In OB Bear (Breaker) at ~69,688 · OB Enter Breaker Bear on the entry-day bar — long into active bear breaker on the execution TF
- SMC — overhead: FVG Enter Bear ~69,858 (1 Jul 22:00) still in the recent 4H ladder above spot

- EMA — HTF overheat: 1D Cur L:16 vs Avg L:14.5 · Dev −0.9% — time-overheated above on the daily chart
- EMA — slow stretch: 3D Cur L:23 vs Avg L:13.7 · Dev −8.4% · 1W Cur L:58 vs Avg L:15.4 · Dev −20.5% — extended above-runs cap upside on slow TFs

- Asia tape headline risk — chip scare can extend before 4H bar closes
- Index proxy (OANDA:JP225USD) vs cash Nikkei — small tracking drift vs `^N225` marks

Takeaway: the 77% WR 4H ALMA sleeve and young below-EMA 4H session support the Asia refill, but daily/weekly time-overheat and an active 4H bear breaker OB frame a grind on a red regional tape — hard −10% caps script risk.

Base case: follow the 4H ALMA strategy · 4H young-below holds · stabilize if Nikkei suppliers stop dragging after the chip headline flush.

Bear case: lose 4H bull FVG ~69,788 · breaker OB extends · 1D time-stretch mean-reverts · −10% toward ~62.5k from the add.

Chart: JP225USD 4H — ALMA Averaging Strategy.

Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.