JP MORGAN topped on its 17-year Channel Up. Bear Cycle started.

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) has been trading within a 17-year Channel Up since the March 2009 market bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. Last month the price hit the exact top of that multi-year pattern and got rejected. Despite the recent rebound, we expect that to be short-lived, as it's not just the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern that is being formed but that Channel Up Top alone calls for a strong, potentially 1-year long Bear Cycle.

Such have historically been most major corrections within this pattern, with the last two (2022 Inflation Crisis and 2020 COVID crash) bottomed near the 1M MA100 (red trend-line), which is the utmost long-term Support and the before (2015) bottoming on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).

With the 1W RSI currently on a huge Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs against price's Higher Highs) since March 2024, we expect the stock to drop to at least $215.00, which like 2015 will make contact with both the 1W MA200 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. At most, if the market repeats the -41.90% decline of 2022, we expect it to hit $195.00 just above the 1M MA100.

A deeper correction (which is quite unlikely based on the current fundamentals) would see JPM target the 0.618 Fib, which is where the 2022 and 2020 corrections bottomed, at $160.00.

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