vlad.adrian
Short

Market Top for Abenomics

FX:JPN225   Nikkei 225 Index
278 0 5
Japan offers a different bet, when compared to US, Europe and Australia. The Nikkei has been in good correlation with the US market, but when the US market reached previous highs, Japanese market only retested a broken support, current resistance (15000 area) . This shows that Japan has become weaker than the US. Look at the bottom indicator, correlation coefficient , and compare the correlation at the market peak with today's correlation.

I outlined a month ago the posibility of a weird H&S pattern forming, when it was clear there was a double left shoulder. Well, now it looks like we have also the double right shoulder, and it looks like a good spot to go short. There are two stops levels, outlined on the chart.

I don't usually use trendlines , but here they work fantastic. The down trendline has rejected the fourth time now.

If you look at the bigger picture, you can see a double top pattern, with a divergence (weekly chart) and a false breakout. So, having two reverseal patterns, one on the weekly, one on the daily, makes me very bearish on this market.
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