It looks like it is the end of this wonderfull bull market in Japan, started by the Abenomics. The fundamentalist that I closely watch see's Japan as the weakest market in G7, so this confirmes my bearish technical bias.
Starting with the weekly, things are pretty simple. A nice class A bearish divergence has allready decreased the Nikkei a lot, but I believe there's more downward movement to come. We are in a transitional market, I explained on the chart why with the use of EMAs.
Moving on to the daily, where price action gives us more hints... Around 15000 there was a strong resistance zone a while back, which, after being broken acted as support, but this time it was broken quickly. Now the Nikkei is at the same zone, again 15000 acting as resistance. A shooting star has formed yesterday. Another way to loot at the chart is through the trendine, which was broken around 15000, and now it is getting retested at 15000. Same level everywhere, 15000. Over this psychological level, a small H&S formed being the multi anual top. This H&S pattern was confirmed my the breakdown of the 15000 support, and the pattern was completed at 14000. Looking at the bigger picture, we can spot another H&S, with two left shoulders, its target being aroung 12000.
In conclusion, we have bearish weekly divergence, transitional weekly market, broken support retest, daily broken trendline retest, shooting star, possible H&S. Taking into account all this information, I think a bet on the short side is very good, risking about 200 points for a gain of minimum 1000, in the first place.
Comments
vlad.adrian
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only half of the target reached. at least it wasn't a loser and that's always good!
warmandfuzzy
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of course!:)
pradafx
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Awesome analysis. Agree
vlad.adrian
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Thank you!
warmandfuzzy
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fantastico!
vlad.adrian
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ohh rez ???
sushi816
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Need JPY to rally big time keep waiting on it...
vlad.adrian
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yes, the charts of JPY are very simillar with the Nikkei and usually they move together, so if I'm right, probably JPY is going to rally too, idk againts which pairs though...