P.S. This is not to say there won't be better opportunities elsewhere. In fact, the S&P 500 could outperform the Nikkei. But this trade is extremely interesting because of its relative certainty. There are more data points on the long term scale than many other indices out there today. The more certain the risk is, the better the trade.
Additionally, perhaps I read the above idea incorrectly, but not the level. And while I read the direction wrong initially in the short term, I am still profiting on this trade. I am not saying this to pat myself on the back, but simply telling my experience that execution is far more important than having ideas going in your planned direction. You could miss a trade. You could over-bet/use too much leverage on a trade, then you get stopped out before it goes your direction. You could second guess your initial analysis because you no longer trust what you planned. All this happened to me countless times. I have lost money in trades that I planned perfectly. Many times.
Great execution > great ideas.
Price has a lot of downside if my indicated level is broken. First target is as follows: