Lanmar
Long

The most obvious buy in the market is ...

FX:JPN225   Nikkei 225 Index
Nikkei

P.S. This is not to say there won't be better opportunities elsewhere. In fact, the S&P 500 could outperform the Nikkei. But this trade is extremely interesting because of its relative certainty. There are more data points on the long term scale than many other indices out there today. The more certain the risk is, the better the trade.
Comment: I've pulled positions until the S&P turns. If the S&P heads lower then every index does.
Comment: We are sitting at a big support now. The 1 year chart will be intact as low as the low 19000s. If support breaks we are headed lower. Simple as that. Flexibility is key
Trade active: I AM SHORT. 4hr trading time frame execution. We have confirmation on the 4hr. As I stated, this level has been extremely significant, break that level, and it is meaningful.
Comment: First, no 'idea' in trading is ever obvious, so it was a mistake to label this idea as such. But most importantly, what I've found over the years about being a trader is being right is not at all important, but knowing what the implication is if you're wrong is important. This is why flexibility is critical. How often do you label a level a great entry and see price fall dramatically below or above it? (depending if you are long or short). How many times has your stop been triggered, and then you say to yourself, "wow, I'm glad I got out." Did you ever notice that there was more money to be made being wrong - by trading the exact opposite side of what you intended on doing? Some failed patterns provide signals in themselves. To my point, a sign of great analysis is when you find levels that are extremely meaningful to that market - regardless of the direction it goes, and determine why it is meaningful. It means you've indicated a level that's pivotal in that particular market. I call these binary opportunities and they are my favorite. It's when an idea makes so much sense, that if it goes against you, it really crashes, or it really explodes higher. In other words, it makes a major move. I am not saying flip in reverse every time you get stopped out - this would be a recipe for huge disaster. I am talking about discovering ideas where the conviction is so high on one side, if it doesn't work, it becomes meaningful. This does not have to be a major long time frame. It could be short as well. This may also not work for everyone. But if it works for you... next time you have so much conviction in an idea and the market breaks that conviction, treat it as an opportunity.

Additionally, perhaps I read the above idea incorrectly, but not the level. And while I read the direction wrong initially in the short term, I am still profiting on this trade. I am not saying this to pat myself on the back, but simply telling my experience that execution is far more important than having ideas going in your planned direction. You could miss a trade. You could over-bet/use too much leverage on a trade, then you get stopped out before it goes your direction. You could second guess your initial analysis because you no longer trust what you planned. All this happened to me countless times. I have lost money in trades that I planned perfectly. Many times.

Bottom line:
Great execution > great ideas.

Price has a lot of downside if my indicated level is broken. First target is as follows:
Comment: I got played beautifully by this market (the market has a way of doing it so well). Let's see how it closes this week.

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