Johanes
Long

JLS: USDIDR Underway to 15,900-16,100 from 13,850-14,000

FX_IDC:JPYIDR   JAPANESE YEN / INDONESIAN RUPIAH
Indonesian rupiah ( IDR ) is resuming to be weaker against USD and underway to 15,900-16,100 in medium term after strengthened to 13,850-14,000 in short term. The long term price stability of USDIDR is to upward direction and the medium term price stability is to upward direction but the short term price stability is to downward direction. Visiting the USDIDR 15,900-16,100 is in compliance to the global monetarists' consensus on emerging market currencies and assumed to be stable. The IDR may resumed to be strong in short term, subject to however her weighted rates with other major currencies.

The weakening IDR against USD in long term and medium term prohibits capital inflow in the form of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Indonesia (except for export-oriented FDI) and the lowest FDI by emerging market. Capital inflow into portfolios generally in short term in parallel to the IDR short term price trend by speculative investors.

Indonesian rupiah ( IDR ) not only weakened by USD in long and medium terms but the currency is weakened by all global currencies to confirm the limited capital inflow in the form of FDI as well as in the form of investment into portfolios. The Indonesian economy is fueled by mainly foreign debts exceeding 2/3 of the current corporate and consumer credits to confirm the domestic wealth too low to support the economic growth and high dependant on foreign debts. The capital market dominated by short term foreign capital investment on the portfolios.

The combination of foreign debts dependant on the fueling of the economy, low FDI flow, short term capital flow into portfolios will continue to hammer Indonesian economy. And at such, the long term economic trend is down-trending, the medium term economis trend is down-trending and the short term economic trend is up-trending (rebound only). Therefore, the short term economic up-trending is limited for repayment and payment of debt obligation dues and left nothing to build national wealth to put Indonesia economically and financially powerless by endless.

It seems only by total reforms then Indonesia may survive and to grow, primary on ideology, mentality and morality. Unless this foundation to be reformed (beyond the IMF, World Bank and ADB's missions), less likely global investors will risk their funds to support Indonesia in long term and only by economic and financial political rethorics.
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