USD/JPY Technical Outlook

USD/JPY Technical Outlook – Bearish Pressure Remains Dominant
On the 1H timeframe, USD/JPY continues to respect the descending trendline that has been guiding price action since mid-October. Every test of this structure has resulted in a clear rejection, confirming ongoing selling momentum.

Currently, price is consolidating below 0.00648, showing weak bullish reaction after a strong impulsive drop. The EMA curve (purple line) acts as dynamic resistance, aligning closely with the descending trendline — a confluence zone that traders should watch carefully.

Key Levels
Resistance: 0.00649 – 0.00652 (trendline & EMA rejection zone)
Support: 0.00645 – 0.00643 (previous low and liquidity zone)

Trading Strategy
Scenario 1 – Sell on pullback:
If price retests the 0.00649–0.00652 resistance zone and fails to close above the trendline, short entries may be considered with a target at 0.00645, extended towards 0.00643.

Scenario 2 – Breakout confirmation:
A clear break and close above 0.00652 (with volume) could invalidate the short bias, opening the door for a corrective move toward 0.00658.

Technical Bias
The market structure remains bearish with lower highs and lower lows intact. As long as price stays under the descending trendline, the probability favors continuation to the downside.

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