USD/JPY H1 - analysis (26/9/2025)

1. Overall Trend
The chart shows a strong downtrend.
Lower highs and lower lows (marked by red arrows) confirm sustained selling pressure.
The current corrective bounce is a potential opportunity to sell at resistance.

2. Entry Zone
SELL Entry: 0.006678 – 0.006694 (green box on the chart)
This area aligns with EMA20/short-term resistance—ideal for trend-following shorts.
Confirm entry with a reversal candle or RSI > 70 signal.

3. Stop-loss (SL)
SL: above 0.006694 (top of the green zone)
Limits risk if the price breaks the short-term resistance.
Matches the recent swing high before the downtrend continuation.

4. Take-profit (TP)
TP: 0.006637 – 0.006630 (red zone at the bottom)
Matches strong support and the recent swing low.
Risk-reward ratio ~1:2 vs SL, suitable for disciplined risk management.

5. Trading Plan
Wait for price to retrace into the 0.006678 – 0.006694 zone.
Confirm reversal with candle pattern or RSI/EMA signals.
Enter SELL with SL = 0.006694, TP = 0.006637.
Keep risk at 1–2% of trading capital per trade.
Insight:
The market remains in a strong downtrend, so selling with the trend is higher probability than attempting to catch the bottom. The bounce to resistance offers a high-probability setup.