JPY/USD - 1H analysis (29/9/2025)

1. Main Trend
The H1 trend is currently downward (bearish), shown by lower highs and lower lows.
The two red arrows mark significant resistance points where price reversed downward.

2. Key Support & Resistance Levels
Near-term resistance: ~0.006720 (recent swing high, point A)
Further resistance: ~0.006780 – 0.006850 (previous highs as marked on the chart)
Near-term support: ~0.006660 – 0.006670 (recent swing low)
These levels follow the swing high/low principle on H1.

3. Short-term ABC Wave Scenario
The chart shows a potential ABC corrective wave:
(A) – first upward retracement after the low
(B) – corrective downward wave following A
(C) – expected next upward wave to test higher resistance

This is a counter-trend retracement pattern, meaning price could bounce up but still faces bearish pressure if it fails to break strong resistance.

4. Trading Strategies
Strategy 1 – Follow the main trend:
Wait for price to retrace to zone (B) ~0.006685–0.006690
Open a short position aiming for continuation of the downtrend
Stop-loss above recent resistance (A) ~0.006720
Take-profit near the previous low ~0.006660

Strategy 2 – Short-term reversal trade:
If price breaks resistance A (~0.006720) with a strong bullish candle
Open a long position targeting the next resistance ~0.006780–0.006850
Stop-loss below the B low ~0.006685

5. Supporting Tools
Trendline: Connect highs/lows to identify breakouts
Short-term EMA (9/21): Crossovers indicate retracement waves
H1 RSI: Check overbought/oversold zones to confirm strength of the move

Summary
Main trend: bearish
Key levels: Resistance ~0.006720, 0.006780; Support ~0.006660
Strategy: Wait for ABC completion → sell with the trend or buy on resistance breakout

Use EMA + RSI + trendline to confirm entries/exits