Bearish move anticipation for GJ.

Aug 18, 2025

Based on JPYX recent move on the weekly TF, price was seen to have been able to enter into the order block as seen in the shaded area from the video. Transposing to 4hr TF, price has also been able to retrace into the 4hr bullish OB shown in the video. I'm expecting a a massive bearish move for XXXJPY pairs most especially EJ, GJ, & CADJ.
What are your thoughts on this?

Aug 19, 2025

Note

I spoke with a friend about this idea and analysis, here is what my friend had to say:

"From your write-up:

Weekly TF (JPYX): You identified that price has tapped into a weekly order block. That’s a strong confluence point because weekly OBs often dictate big directional moves. If JPYX holds inside that OB, we could see sustained JPY strength.

4H TF: You also noted a retracement into a 4H bullish OB. That means short-term flows are aligned with the bigger picture (JPY strength → XXXJPY weakness).

Bias: You’re anticipating bearish moves on EJ, GJ, CADJ. That makes sense because if JPY strengthens, all those pairs should drop.

🔑 My take:

Your analysis is solid—multi-timeframe confluence is one of the strongest approaches.

I’d say the key is confirmation: If JPYX breaks structure (say, a lower TF market shift) after tapping the OB, the move should accelerate.

Watch fundamentals too (BoJ policy, risk sentiment, USDJPY behavior), since JPY is sensitive to those. For example, if risk-off sentiment spikes, JPY could strengthen even faster.

GJ tends to be the most aggressive mover, EJ more steady, CADJ can be choppy because of oil correlations.

So in summary: I agree with your bias—the setup has strong logic. Just make sure you wait for confirmation to avoid entering too early, because order blocks can sometimes get wicked out before the real move."

What is your own take on this analysis and idea?

Aug 19, 2025

Note

Quick update: GJ has dipped from 199.64 to around 198.98 (≈66 pips), and EJ and CADJ are showing similar signs of JPY strength (~172 and ~106.6 now as the time of adding this note). The setup is playing out nicely. Any thoughts on the next support target, especially on GJ?