COFFEE - Possible "coffee break" ahead

Coffee is back around the price of the beginning of the month.

Since OCT 2 we have a shy uptrend forming for coffee’s standards, in the 4h time frame (TF).

The price went up from its lowest of the current month and $104.90 to $113.35 (+8.04%) on OCT 12 and $111.70 (+6.45%) today so far.

The trend on the Higher TFs is still bearish and technically this is where are now.

We have some indications suggesting that we might be in front of a total reversal for the price of Coffee .

There are:

1) Higher lows since OCT 2

2) at the 4h TF since OCT 9 from the 10 bars 8 of them are above the 50MA

3) we had two major tests (and rejections) for price to break above two week resistance

4) we expect the price to reach at some point soon the monthly Fib 0.382 level

Against the above are the latest data from the COT report of OCT 6 where hedge funds closed 3.207 positions and opened 4.219 bringing the Net Long positions to 47.505 from 54.931 the previous week. Of course we still don’t know what their positions are for the current week.

So what we make out of all this.

To put it in simple terms with what I know so far the longer the price remains above the 50MA the more the chances of it breaking the $112 and move towards the Fib 0.382. The “Decision lvl” is where the two weeks resistance meets the blue trendline. Break it and we buy.

If on the other hand price breaks below the green trend line and the 20MA then we might be looking for more to the down.

Good luck traders

Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the ambition to become one! The above is just an idea that I share with the intention of attracting comments and perhaps become a better trader.

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