I'm eyeing up a long entry on coffee. I'll look at trading this through the 3CFL ETF. If the trade goes as envisaged and hits my wave 3 target, it could yield 100% profit thanks to the leveraged ETF.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do not follow my trades. Do your own analysis, make your own trading plans. I am not an Elliot Wave analyst and only use the tool to map out a general idea of how price may move. Constructive comments are welcomed and encouraged.
So why am I taking this trade?
The recent move up from the late September low looks pretty impulsive and price is currently printing what looks to me like a bull flag; As price has been falling throughout this year, volume has started to swell, giving clear bullish divergence More recently, in the July to September period of this year, the swelling volume could be considered stopping volume Price has bounced off the $96 dollar level (12 year low) a level which has previously been a springboard. Monthly / Daily RSI and stochastic RSI look bullish
Why am I targeting $148 by end of year?
Historical resistance level Confluence with specific, modest fib extension level Use of fib time tool to project key dates for pivots
Any reasons to be cautious?
Weekly RSI and stochastic RSI look bearish Price could possibly make a W bottom and even make a lower low, with strong bullish divergence on stoch RSI / RSI - which would provide another good entry for a long.
Stop loss? Subject to the opening price on the ETF tomorrow, I'll consider placing a tight stop around the $110 mark.
@scampeas, I've actually just opened a long position again on coffee. What I thought was a wave 1 in my original analysis, was perhaps just a wave 4 of the 5 wave down trend. So know that price is back in an oversold position, I have opened a long and set a stop just below the low of September 2018. An alternative strategy would be to set an alert for when price crosses the EMA21 on the daily chart and perhaps go long there. As you can deduce, I have a tendency to try to pick bottoms and tops - it's a costly habit!! Good luck.