OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 106.95 ct / lb .
The pandemic continues unabated, we have just passed 50 million cases worldwide, with over 1.250 million deaths . Faced with the 2nd wave, Europe is confining itself or imposing curfews. The United States is the first country to exceed 100,000 new cases in one day. Joe Biden wants to set up a crisis unit. In Europe, many non-essential businesses are closed such as bars and restaurants.
Bars and restaurants are places of high coffee consumption, and their closure in Europe will weigh on demand.
The end of the year marks the arrival of production from Central American countries, or Colombia, which adds downward pressure to the market.
According to the International Coffee Organization, world coffee exports in 2019/20 fell by 4.9% to 126.9 million bags. Production in 2019/20 is estimated at 168.84 million bags, down 2.5%, and consumption fell by 0.9% to 167.59 million bags. This would lead to a surplus of 1.24 million bags.
In the United States, Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, 2021, the Senate remains Republican for the time being, but there will be a second round in Georgia on January 05. If the Democrats win both seats, that would bring the distribution to 50-50 seats, and Vice President Kamala Harris could constitutionally break the tie. In the absence of a majority in the Senate, voting on a plan to support the U.S. economy would be made more difficult. This leaves uncertainty as to the timing and amount of the plan. Last week the Fed reaffirmed its willingness to support the US economy and is ready to "increase its firepower" if necessary. The dollar fell sharply, with the DXY dropping from over 94 at the beginning of last week to close Friday at 92.236, a drop that benefited all dollar-denominated .
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Last week the rains were below normal. Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo received 50 mm, while further south Sao Paulo and Parana were drier. According to the forecast, next week the rains will be in line with normal with a probability of rainfall above 50 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.170 million 60 kg bags compared to 1.129 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on contracts.
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week, down sharply at 92.236. The U.S. elections will continue to bring to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be needed in Georgia. Therefore, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy.
Last week's statements by the FED certainly weighed heavily on the dollar. The FED announced that it could increase "its firepower" if necessary. Forex traders are therefore anticipating an increase in the money supply.
On Sunday, the United States experienced a record covid-19 for the 4th consecutive day, and even though the news was dominated by the elections, the pandemic could be remembered by investors if the US faces a 2nd wave similar to the one hitting Europe. A return of the dollar as a safe haven is not a possibility to be ignored. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months.
A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets.
Last week, the Brazilian Real closed sharply higher at 0.1862, breaking Friday's 0.1750/0.1810 range in which it had been trading since the end of September. The fall of the Dollar allowed the Brazilian Real to rebound. The BRL /USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
The weekly ( ) report of the Commodity Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the coffee futures markets is down this week to 28,021 K instead of 35,421 K.