p4917

Bullish triangle pattern - waiting to be resolved

Long
ICEUS:KC1!   COFFEE C® FUTURES
The bottom side of this triangle was confirmed multiple times now. Waiting for a test of the upper side and/or just a breakout.

The next target zone will be around 250-255 USX.
Comment: It seems like this triangle pattern will be solved to the downside. So a daily close at the current level (183.35 USX) would render this technical setup useless.

Nevertheless, I would stay away from shorting this commodity at the moment because it is against seasonality and other fundamental data.
Trade active: Adjusted point B of the triangle. Still not broken - so technical it's all intact. Waiting for the move ...

Comment: Adjusted point D of the triangle. So it's now drawn to its extreme points. Price remains still inside the triangle but another adjustment won't be possible. Let's see which side the price breaks.

Comment: This is not a breakout but a fake-out. Depends of course how the day does end but it looks like a fake-out. So I'm not only fundamentally long in KC but also still technically.
Comment: Finally - coffee makes a move:

Comment: Valid triangle - looks bullish. It wouldn't wonder me if we achieve a new yearly high within this week ...

Comment: Coffee looks good now. ;)
Short-term target of around 225 USX should be achieved already within the next days. ATM I'm very confident that the coffee price reaches also the original target zone around 250 USX.

Comment: Looks like the coffee futures are forming the next bullish chart pattern (a bullish wedge) which could result in a continuation of the upwards move later this week:

Comment: One triangle follows the next one ...

Comment: Alright, 225 USX has been reached, and it doesn't look toppy, nor does the seasonality implies a change of price direction. So the next target is 257 USX. If not this month then it will be reached in December properly.

Comment: So the coffee futures are consolidating in the next symmetric triangle. As always - it's possible that this triangle gets resolved to the upside OR to the downside. According to the technical market structure and the fundamental data, it is much more likely that this triangle gets resolved to the upside.

Nevertheless, a correction to the downside, reaching 233 USX, is possible and does not destroy the bullish outlook at all.