Kumowizard
Long

Fear of shortage in coffee?

ICEUSA:KC1!   Coffee
197 6 7
I read some articles about possible shortage building in coffee             production side compared to increasing global consumption. Some coffee             experts and insiders like Illy already warn that the World will run into serious supply crisis within next 5-10 years, and that an additional supply equal to size of Brazilian production will be needed just to ballance the exponentially increasing consumption. Do they really see something strategic, or would they just like to see coffee             prices a bit higher from multi year lows? I have no clue, so check the charts, as market will tell us the story in time.

Weekly:
- Bearish Ichimoku setup, price trades below all avearages. Strategic bears should have their trailing stop ard Kijun Sen + buffer, so probably in the 131-135 zone. Above 135 the bearish bias and trend would be questionable.
- Heikin Ashi weekly is counter bullish . If market will ever think or start to fear about a shortage, you will see something wild like in Jan/2014 - March/2014! So if you look to trade long based on a short squeeze, you have to first focus on a weekly close above Kijun Sen!

Daily:
- Well well, maybe the time for that reversal and short squeeze is getting close? Ichimoku setup is neutral now: weak bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross, Price above Kijun with future Kumo shade ahead.
- Heikin Ashi signal has been bullish short term. Price also reched the major bearish trendline! Actually the whole pattern may develop further to a bullish wedge .
- Key reversal area is 125-128. If price breaks above the trendline and Kumo, then probably the fear of short squeeze will send it a lot higher!
- As haDelta is not yet extreme, maybe it is not a bad idea to enter small long, however major bullish position requires the break of 128-130!
I think it's just fabrication to pull from multi year-lows, in my opinion.
Reply
Kumowizard PRO Tom_Killick
We'll see. As US enterred, price immediately jumped to 127,50. Coffee can trade like a beast.
Anyway, I enterred 0,5 risk unit long, looking to add above 130.
+1 Reply
Kumowizard PRO Kumowizard
I worked enough for today. Now I go to drink one more coffee to increase demand! :-)
Reply
Hehehe :-)
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Tom_Killick
Sign me up for one. Nice chart, and yes, fabrication or not I think this has some decent upside.
Reply
Check Green mountain coffee roasters during the correction in 2007 - probably one of the best stocks at that time. Feels similar?
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