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eyupium
Jan 16, 2019 8:00 PM

KMD/BTC Wyckoff accumulation range Long

Komodo / BitcoinBinance

Description

I am not familiar with the fundamentals of this coin, nor have I read any news about it.
However, a very good example of a Wyckoff accumulation range, complete with the matching volume profile on each step and phase of the accumulation has been formed here.

Waiting for the last step before the markup (phase E) begins.

Needs to show a "sign of strentgh" (SOS) and break above the range high followed by a confirmation of the range high as a new support (not necessary but healthy for further growth).
When we see that happen, this trade has been validated.

Keep in mind, this is a daily timeframe chart, and it might take weeks to play out.
Looking for a potential move of 50-60% here.

Invalidated if the price makes a new low (below 1350)

An illustration of a Wyckoff accumulation schematic can be seen here:
steemitimages.com/DQmWKV2f8XxCiQZLE4JygsSjU91LTtgfu4isnHafQbpfUM6/image.png

For those curious about how Wyckoff method works, more details with the description of each step and phases can be found here:
stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

Comment

+30% pump since touching the LPS with a perfect wick as per the line in the chart.

Now touching the upper range resistance.
This is playing out in the most ideal way possible so far.

A break above the range high should create some nice fireworks.

Comment

KMD has reached our target at 3489.

Made a whopping 63% candle in one day. Beautiful.

Since our initial entry at the LPS point 1705 (when I first posted the analysis more than a month ago), this has made a 126% move in an explosive expansion candle today.
Seemingly out of nowhere, but we already saw the accumulation that lasted for months, and we managed to enter before the markup phase.

Since our first target was reached and half of the profits locked in already, we can either leave the rest for a possible second push in the coming days, or close it all here, depending on your trade management.

Either way, if you are not in from lower, this is not the place to enter anymore, especially not after this kind of a long wick candle.
Depending on how the weekly candle closes on this coin, it is also possible that this was it, so keep that in mind.
If the weekly candle closes above 2950-3000, I will expect continuation upwards.
But there's still a few days until that, so definitely lock in partial profits if you already haven't done it at the first target near 3400.

Comment

Buying some KMD here at 2246 while it's retesting the old range-high.

This is a longer term play (few weeks up to a few months), so not expecting a quick pump/dump action.

If you've followed my analysis on KMD here, you know that it had a 7+ months long Wyckoff accumulation range, which we played here and profited greatly off of that (100%+) move.

Now after a few weeks, the price is coming back to retest the range from which it broke out on high volume.
The volume is low on this retest/retrace, which is what I like to see.
Expecting a reaction from these levels.

I will be slowly scaling in more buys if it dips further towards 2100.

Daily candle close below 2000 level will be the red flag for this setup.

Comments
Dagbit81
What's your strategy here, do you risk buying at LPS or wait for SOS/breakout and retest of the range high? Thank you.
TradingRange
Not really, Volume has to decrease during this range, from high sell volume until to spike in a buyers during AR. This range suppose to exhaust the market participants. Here its quit opposite. Plus there was rebranding event few days ago, so buy the rumour phase is over. But lets see
eyupium
@SHOP, If you're talking about the phase A, then I agree, selling climax volume here is not ideal, but phase A is not as crucial as phases C and D (when it comes to volume), and this being a low liquidity coin, I know I can't expect it to show me 100/100 points, so I'll take the 80/100 in this case.

What I like about the volume in this range is, each buying rally / advance has been followed by large volume, and the subsequent sell-off / corrections were all on low and diminishing volume, even the potential spring in the range where it went below the support lines happened on low selling volume.

This is what I look for, when trying to estimate the accumulation inside the range.
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