Perma_Pig

When LB touches purple line, short it.

Short
NYSE:LB   L Brands, Inc
99% sure this works. NYSE:LB
Trade active: Long Retail Put Holders, You're Day Has Come.

Don't think I'd take more than half today, the retail crap is over for the next foreseeable and likely distant future.

This one should've paid everyone by now, so roll those profits.

- P, Pig.
Trade closed: target reached: Forgot to close this, but it did work if I recall. Will be time to short again soon, see latest post for little-to-no insight.
Perma_Pig

Comments

Didn't work, it's almost 20
Reply
Perma_Pig StanMacro
@StanMacro, true, if you held short for two-weeks, it didn't work. I guess that is my fault for not closing it when it seemed obvious that the move was over.
Reply
XRT is now overbought, would add to short positions in FL, URBN and KSS on this dead cat.
Reply
maxpowers67 Perma_Pig
@Perma_Pig, whats your thoughts on lulu
Reply
Perma_Pig maxpowers67
@maxpowers67, exempt since it doesn't miss estimates by > %150. I mean, of all the companies in the space, that one would be my last choice, and quite possibly, a hedge within a diagonal strangle. Definitely don't short LULU, since Urban-fuggin-outfitters is about to head higher after a %550 miss and likely bankruptcy.

Helpful Tip: Put XRT on your watchlist and have it display the 14-Day RSI. It's already overbought, but if you see it pass 75, then you're very close to a potential entry (In foot locker or any other apparel retailer that is not LULU).

Let me know if this all makes sense.
Reply
maxpowers67 Perma_Pig
@Perma_Pig,

sounds great I'm new to this and just by chance the companies you are looking and posting info on are similar to what I'm thinking especially DKNK. I cant see retail hanging on to much longer when we open up and the initial wave of stimulus check holding people dies down and we still posting major losses each day. Thanks for the info just trying to figure out if these gains are going to hold up tomorrow so i can get a better deal for next week.
Reply
Perma_Pig maxpowers67
@maxpowers67, yeah, im predicting pretty nasty day tomorrow, so perfect short opp. Retail is my number one candidate for a swift, unsurprising death. DKNK works just fine.

I am a bit too short URBN as it stands, with my protective calls hedged in there. So I'm good from retail POV, but have two others that I plan to increase put size on tomorrow:

-DKNG - Way overbought, looks like a blow-off top forming. Stocktwits feed is manic, which is biggest tell before a huge drop. (See VTIQ chat 2 weeks ago for reference).

-ROKU - Just look at the chart. Also, see 002 Piggish Play for details.

Longs - NBIX, CRWD

NBIX - Longa BIO in general bc I noticed some sector rotation out of retail and into Bio, probably bc of the big conference next Tuesday = catalyst for pumping rest of week sector-wide.

CRWD - See 003 Piggish Plays for details.

Good Luck!
Reply
maxpowers67 Perma_Pig
@Perma_Pig,

Right now i have a few oil puts that about to pay off USO and UCO( thought i would double dip, not saying it was smart) I figured every thing got pumped up to send us in to a nice 3 day weekend last week hoping we would drive across the U.S., that did not happen. Also, figuring 100K covid related death will be all over the news around mid week, just as every one is about to completely open up, volume was so low Yesterday.
Thanks for all your info you post, already fallowing u, gotta go through all your info and study your strategy, good luck to every one tomorrow. I know we all have the same idea, make enough money to pay off our debt from the last crash 8*(
Reply
Perma_Pig maxpowers67
@maxpowers67, Haha indeed. You might wanna glance at my latest post first (Pig-Peg) because if it's right, we'll know very quickly the info can be very helpful for next two days. Terms of oil plays, I know nothing because I base all my trades on "feel" and tape-reading ability. Technicals are good for crafting plays after hours imo, but I wont look at a single chart more than once from 930 - 5. Point is that when I read the tape of any oil-related ETF, derivative, future, etc. I get zero read and my edge is useless. Have little experience, so can't help much there.

One important thing tho - there was a period of about 2 weeks during April when Oil would uncannily selloff at 2 pm, causing equity prices to fall for about 45 mins. This pattern royally f'd up my volatility short more times than I can count. Turns out that a bunch of institutional quants were dumping oil, then buying equities at a discount into the close. While I suspected something like this after having gotten screwed on multiple ETF intraday setups, it makes Oil a no-trade category for me altogether and I'd suggest staying away for good. Those quants are currently being investigated, fyi.

Regardless of what you choose to trade, stay strong my friend and be sure to make cake rest of the week. Going to bed (hopefully).

GL,

-P
Reply
Are you shorting now or waiting until tomorrow
Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar About Chart Features Pricing Refer a friend House Rules Help Center Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Lightweight Charting Library Blog & News Twitter