$LCID Dilution, bankruptcy, or significant dilution IMMIMENT

First, in December last year I was very bearish on EOSE on social media. I got a lot of pushback, with people saying I had a low IQ and didn’t understand the company or its financials.

A hedge fund manager stepped in and addressed every argument they made. He told me privately that he hadn’t looked at the chart at all, but instead focused on SEC filings and the company’s financials.

According to him, management wasn’t being transparent and the goals they had set were unrealistic. He believed the company would likely see a sharp collapse within the next one or two earnings releases.

He didn’t look at the chart at all, just SEC filings and financials. His conclusion was clear: management wasn’t being transparent, targets were unrealistic, and a major downside move was likely within 1–2 earnings cycles.

As you probably know, EOSE totally collapsed at the first earnings.

This weekend, he reached out to me again, this time about $LCID. His view: dilution, or worse, is likely coming.

🧠 My take (structure + fundamentals)

From a technical perspective:

The chart isn’t as stretched as EOSE was back then

No clear blow-off or buy climax

Bears may even be somewhat exhausted short term

But:

Price has been range-bound for ~3 months

👉 Given the fundamental backdrop, a downside break is more likely

📉 Scenarios

Severe dilution → ~$5 area

Worst case (bankruptcy risk) → sub $1

👉 The asymmetric reward is there

⚠️ Execution challenge

Price is sitting near all-time lows, which means:

Short covering rallies can be aggressive

Easy to get stopped out too tight

👉 My approach:

Start with smaller size + wider stop

Add more later if we get a good setup like a range break with tension.

📊 Trade plan

Entry: $9.87

Target: $5 or lower

Stop: $12.20