The rally appears to be over on the long term and the short term for LEN
and other home-builders. There is a good trade setting up here to go short LEN
and look for downside in the neighborhood of 10% over the next quarter. The risk is a rally of 10%, so unfortunately the risk is equal to the reward but I believe the odds of the decline are greater, far-greater than the odds for a rally.
Note the distribution pattern just above current levels. This is long term sellers unloading shares and that is an indication of a change in trend.
Target under $34
Risk to the highs $43
Tim 12:27PM EST
, Thursday Feb 28, 2013