What’s up warriors? I’m shorting Lennar from $107.50 down to the $2 gap in the volume profile. Any more price drops and incentives put them at break even on the homes which they can’t sell. They refused to see how late credit cycle we are, and they pushed forward with 10% YOY builds, despite the housing market being down nationally 10% YOY, and 20% in some regions. They’re new build neighborhoods are ghost-towns, and who would want to live in a ghost town at these prices and interest rates? Nobody. It’s game over. They go bankrupt
They still have to pay interest on loans that they took out in order to build out their ghost-towns. That’s their problem. That puts them from break even now, to underwater very quickly. The fed is not going to stop raising interest rates. Have fun being that frog that gets slow-boiled.