After rebounding on the bottom of our long-lasting channel on 9 December, Chainlink got back almost straight to the S2 where it faced a substantial rejection. It is currently holding the S1, but it may not last long. I'm expecting Chainlink to retest the bottom of the channel a second time, and potentially visit areas below it to meet the S3 at 10.93$ before finding significative support to rebound more firmly this time. Should this scenario take place and that we can close a 4H candle with just a wick below the channel to demonstrate strong support, I would then expect upside, with a quick retest of the median of the channel. The median being in confluence with the Pivot at 13.76$, we could expect a cool down at this level. However, in a scenario where the candle was to close below the bottom of the channel, near the S3, I would expect more downside.
Let me know in the comments if you'd like this idea to be updated over time.
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Let's start with a correction on my first update, first sentence, where I mingled the S2 and S1. Sorry about that :) Now that it is clarified, let's get to the update:
We are now touching the bottom of the channel. The lack of substantial rebound makes me think we will break it on the downside. Potentially testing the daily S3 at 10.96$, or a little bit lower to meet the golden pocket of our Fibonacci (between 10.50$ and 10.80$). The Fibonacci golden pocket is also in confluence with the monthly S1 (10.70$) - see below. So this is a really critical area where I truly anticipate a rebound.
If the aforementioned region does not hold, we have the 200 EMA at 10.16$ and the 200 MA at 10$. The latest has not been tested since the Black Thursday on 12 March.
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Very good news, it seems like the channel held. LINk is now going back up and being slightly rejected at the daily S1 (12.69$). If it can break and hold above with a candle close, I would be expecting a test of the monthly pivot (13.65$).
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Note that it should ideally hold and close above the 12.80$ level to print a higher low.
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A test of the daily R1 (13.47$) is imminent.
Once tested, I would expect a slight pull back to consolidate before the monthly Pivot at 13.68$ and possibly the median of the channel at 13.83$. The median being almost in confluence with the daily R2, I would expect a temporary rejection at this level.
If the target is reached, the next update will be in another post. Follow me to be alerted.
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Additional note to support the above point. There is a RS flip on the diagonal resistance. See below: