In the middle of the bull... do you honestly think BTC is going to 10k ? Otherwise LINK isn't going to $10 lol
RizeSenpai
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@ich1baN, I'm honestly not ruling that out, I think BTC has a likelihood of seeing, at the highest, 14K again before continuing the bull market and even if BTC doesn't go that low it doesn't mean LINK will follow it, LINK looks technically ready to fall regardless of what BTC does.
ich1baN
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@RizeSenpai, respectfully disagree - we have a much higher chance of seeing $1.4 million than 14K again lol
RizeSenpai
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@ich1baN, We'll see. I'm generally bullish on the US Dollar right now and i'm bearish on many stocks you can check out some of my other setups to get a grasp of that if you want, but this Bullish setup on the USD does not look very good for Bitcoin, Stocks, or anything else to me.
ich1baN
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@RizeSenpai, bro, you do understand this is an utterly non-sensical chart to use? DXY is a measurement tool ONLY against other fiat currencies ... it has nothing to do with other assets... so many traders on TV continually don't understand this.
RizeSenpai
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@ich1baN, Yes i understand this but generally if money rushes into the USD from pairs such as the CAD, the EURO, the GBP, there's also cash rushing in from other places like the stock market and gold.
It's the big guy deleveraging and taking off risk and this tends to trickle down to BTC in a negative way.
ich1baN
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@RizeSenpai, good points but I don't see dollar strength ocurring here with the $2 trillion print + MMT maximization with Yellen in at Treasury and an MMT in at Fed
RizeSenpai
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@ich1baN, Yea i can see where you're coming from, i personally don't think the "printing" (credit injection) is going to cause as much inflation as it's been hyped up to be. There's simply too much demand for dollars, the global economy is literally starving for dollars so i don't believe that all this credit that's been pumped into the market is really going to cause much inflation (if any at all)
If anything this will likely increase the demand for dollars once this credit bubble pops which in this case will be somewhat deflationary (in my opinion)
ich1baN
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@RizeSenpai, I see where you're coming from too and this was my macro view from 2010 to 2015ish, then I realized the Fed does truly want to create inflation through MMT. Although there is immense demand for dollars globally there is also an immense demand from the Fed to embark on Modern Monetary Theory by levering up mechanisms to hit a 2% CPI inflation target - you and I both know the basket that makes up the CPI is completely ridiculous meaning inflation is actually much higher meaning the value of the dollar is actually weakening.
AT THE SAME TIME I completely agree with your deflationary view 100% .... we are on the knife's edge of massive deflation and also inflation at the same exact time. HOWEVER, with rates perpetually at 0% and with the Fed signaling they will keep them there for over a decade, we will continue to see ASSET inflation which is what we've seen with certain stocks, real estate, gold, etc over last 10+ years.
I really do view that the default view should be inflation in a normal world but with the Fed clearly on a warpath of MMT - we will continue to see a bubbling up of assets while at the same time experiencing deflation in wages and incomes - it's the worst of both worlds - your cost inputs increase but your income sources are flat or decrease.... a la stagflation.
Good post mate. Jim Rickards is someone that probably has our views more aligned than not aligned - I think you would really like his thoughts on macro view of deflation / inflation (he views it that both are true as well)
B_Musk
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@ich1baN, This is an interesting perspective, econ is clearly in your wheelhouse. Why do you think organizations in particular will be choosing to pump cheap capital into assets but limit wage growth of its employees?
Is it a matter of limited aggregate wage growth due to a challenged economy -> reduction in consumer purchasing power -> reduced organization revenue -> compensation for reduced revenue through asset acquisitions and appreciation?