Congratulations to people who invested/traded LINK. It was an extraordinary performance, while the entire crypto market was in a bear market, LINK was in its biggest bull run ever. I believe this month was like the Dec 2017 cryto bull run euphoria
From an Elliott wave perspective,
The entire move from $0.16 to $20 can be considered as wave 3 (green) and the last few months being the (5)th subwave (blue)
Why I think the macro green wave3 is finished (or close to finishing)
- Macro wave3 is 1.75x of Wave1 (green)
- Subwave (4) divides the move at 0.5Fib
- Volume decline between subwave (3) and subwave (5)
- RSI bearish divergence (making lower low) while price makes a higher high (green line between subwave 3 &5)
- Weekly RSI hit 90 overbought, last time this happened at end of June '19, then price dropped 70%
What Next?
- Expecting a drop of 50-70%
- Expecting a macro wave4 (green) correction to 0.382Fib or 0.5Fib
Last few months was the 5th subwave playing out
Bull Case:
If this was indeed the macro wave 3, I expect wave 5 to rally to $65-$100 after the wave4 correction
Bearish case:
In case this entire move was an ABC, we can drop to 0.618Fib ($1.5)
Invalidation: It is difficult to call the top, so if price makes a new high then I will rethink analysis and update here. I also think if there is a chance, we may see 1 last move to $22 before the correction happens
LINK BTC ratio also looks done at macro level
Don't take anything for granted, lot of investors including me wished we took more profits in Dec 2017. So take profits or move up your stop loss
All the best
p.s- If you don't agree with this Analysis, feel free to ignore. Constructive feedback along with charts is welcome
From an Elliott wave perspective,
The entire move from $0.16 to $20 can be considered as wave 3 (green) and the last few months being the (5)th subwave (blue)
Why I think the macro green wave3 is finished (or close to finishing)
- Macro wave3 is 1.75x of Wave1 (green)
- Subwave (4) divides the move at 0.5Fib
- Volume decline between subwave (3) and subwave (5)
- RSI bearish divergence (making lower low) while price makes a higher high (green line between subwave 3 &5)
- Weekly RSI hit 90 overbought, last time this happened at end of June '19, then price dropped 70%
What Next?
- Expecting a drop of 50-70%
- Expecting a macro wave4 (green) correction to 0.382Fib or 0.5Fib
Last few months was the 5th subwave playing out
Bull Case:
If this was indeed the macro wave 3, I expect wave 5 to rally to $65-$100 after the wave4 correction
Bearish case:
In case this entire move was an ABC, we can drop to 0.618Fib ($1.5)
Invalidation: It is difficult to call the top, so if price makes a new high then I will rethink analysis and update here. I also think if there is a chance, we may see 1 last move to $22 before the correction happens
LINK BTC ratio also looks done at macro level
Don't take anything for granted, lot of investors including me wished we took more profits in Dec 2017. So take profits or move up your stop loss
All the best
p.s- If you don't agree with this Analysis, feel free to ignore. Constructive feedback along with charts is welcome
