Four days ago, 1.5 Million LINK were transferred out. One week before that other 1.5 Million. And two weeks before that too. To put it simply, we’re 3 weeks away from emptying this wallet.
Ok but, what does that mean?
Token Distribution Let’s begin to remember how the tokens have been distributed.
There is a maximum supply of 1 Billion tokens. This is the total number of LINK that will be ever created. This is still far from being the number of LINK in the circulating supply. As of today, there is only 408.5 Million LINK of circulating supply. That’s only approx. 40.85% of the maximum supply.
On its ICO , this was how LINK was distributed:
35% to Node Operators
35% to the Public Token Sale
30% to the Company
So, 300 Millions LINK go to the company, in 6 publicly known Chainlink wallets with 50 Million LINK each (in 2017).
So the circulating supply has been increasing since 2017 with transactions mostly from Chainlink’s Team wallet 1 (in orange) and wallet 5 (in blue) to other wallets (e.g. exchanges). Other wallets have stayed untouched with 50 Million LINK each. The last transaction out of wallet 5 occurred August 2019 and to this day it has 37.4 Million LINK left. The wallet 1 has been the more active and has still 4.09 Million LINK left and if we keep the same rate of the previous weeks (i.e. 1.5M LINK per week), we’re 3 weeks away from emptying this wallet (dotted line in orange).
So after the wallet is emptied-out, the longer it gets without Chainlink moving LINK from one of the their wallets, the more significant the case for price going up (i.e. reducing supply).
When will Wallet 1 be emptied-out?
I'm expecting Wallet 1 to be emptied on March 12th but they could just sell all of the remaining LINK sooner on any day or more probably on a Friday.
So watch out for the following days:
February 26 (assuming they move everything left in one go)
March 5 (assuming they move everything left in one go)
March 12 (if same rate is kept i.e. 1.5M LINK per week)
What comes next?
Let’s entertain the idea for a moment that they do stop selling for some time. This is one of those cases, where the why they would do that becomes less important than for how long. Wouldn’t you say that 50 Million+ LINK would be enough to support the development of the Chainlink protocol for some time? We’re most probably 3 weeks away from emptying the wallet, and 4 weeks away to find out what comes next. And if this happens, it helps the case for upward movement.
They unload during the uptrend especially on Fridays that's the reason why LINK's price is lagging compare to other ALTS. LINK & NEO were that the same price at $24 on the 7th of Feb. NEO topped out at $55 on the 21st and LINK topped out at $36. This is the reason why I'll reduce my LINK position and pick up on better performing ALTS. The LINK team really pissed me off!
wurucututu
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@DukeDinhd6, it's fair. But, keep an eye on those addresses for the next Fridays. It might be worth it.
ich1baN
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@DukeDinhd6, but remember, once that address is exhausted - there is no more selling pressure and LINK will significantly outperform the alts you buy. This wallet address is likely an advisor to the ChainLink team before they properly formed as a company which makes sense b/c they began selling in the very beginning. Could be a BCG or Bain kind of group who has no need for crypto.
DukeDinhd6
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@ich1baN, they most move more coins out to exchanges today from another wallet. It's disappointing man.