To put it simply, my original EW count has been invalidated by this gruesome price action over the weekend where no doubt many stops were hunted and some pain was felt on both sides. However, those who have been following me will remember that this is a macro analysis, and I did indeed have a plan B for what if that failed. Well you can see this post as just a restatement of that previous point! I mentioned that for the macro EW count to be valid, wave 4 must not intersect with wave 1, which means we could go as low as 2 dollars and 8 cents and bounce there, and the 5th wave targets would STILL be in play. I truly believe this whole move is for LINK in the long term, and some real institutional money is coming in. That being said, we've just had a lot of what I would call "reddit money" moving in as well, which is normally a sell signal :^). That being said, let's examine what we see on the here.
Firstly, the daily candle of yesterday gave us a DISGUSTING false breakout of the triangle (Thanks CZbots) and the close now looks something like a candle or a of some sort. It really shows lack of strength from the bulls who were trying to buy up everything without waiting for a pullback.
As a result, my friends, what we are now seeing is a crossover on the which is in my opinion a pretty big sell signal. If you traded with this strategy of buying when it crosses up, and selling when it crosses down, which is a very common strategy, you would have bought at between 1 or 2 dollars and be selling right now. There is a pretty good case for trying to do this rather than selling at the top because it is more reliable although there is less ROI than trying to sell the top. This is not really my style of trading but many people will be selling now because of that.
My final point that I would like you to know about is the 11 MA is ticking down, as well as the which was already at resistance.
So my target to buy would be where that green horizantal line is, which fits with the 0.5 retracement level at exactly 2.87 USD. This would be a very healthy retracement and create a if we bounce there.
The other scenario is that the bulls manage to create a huge downwards wick in the green buy zone and push above the upwards sloping in order to liquidate the bears. I would personally be happy with either option, but I'm really doubting the bulls have that much fuel to throw at it right now.
My buy signal will be either a daily close above the green zone, or a bounce off the 0.5 fiv level.
Log chart, showing the break of the parabola and symetrical triangle.
Please don't forget to leave a like! There is much more to come.
This just shows how important it is to look on all timeframes. 1 hour could even close as a bullish engulfing candle.
Bullish spinning top just confirmed on 4 hour. We are still waiting for daily close.
Still waiting patiently for daily confirmation.
Likely to see a bounce here and possibly temp low.