Etch1234

LINK: Macro Analysis Part 2- Parabola Broken

BINANCE:LINKUSD   ChainLink / US Dollar (calculated by TradingView)
Hello everyone. I recommend to read part 1 of this analysis before continuing if you have not. If you a follower, then welcome back, and I just wanted to say thank you to my new followers as well who have been waiting for this one.

To put it simply, my original EW count has been invalidated by this gruesome price action over the weekend where no doubt many stops were hunted and some pain was felt on both sides. However, those who have been following me will remember that this is a macro analysis, and I did indeed have a plan B for what if that failed. Well you can see this post as just a restatement of that previous point! I mentioned that for the macro EW count to be valid, wave 4 must not intersect with wave 1, which means we could go as low as 2 dollars and 8 cents and bounce there, and the 5th wave targets would STILL be in play. I truly believe this whole move is bullish for LINK in the long term, and some real institutional money is coming in. That being said, we've just had a lot of what I would call "reddit money" moving in as well, which is normally a sell signal :^). That being said, let's examine what we see on the daily chart here.

Firstly, the daily candle of yesterday gave us a DISGUSTING false breakout of the triangle (Thanks CZbots) and the close now looks something like a bearish shooting star candle or a doji of some sort. It really shows lack of strength from the bulls who were trying to buy up everything without waiting for a pullback.

As a result, my friends, what we are now seeing is a bearish MACD crossover on the daily chart which is in my opinion a pretty big sell signal. If you traded with this strategy of buying when it crosses up, and selling when it crosses down, which is a very common strategy, you would have bought at between 1 or 2 dollars and be selling right now. There is a pretty good case for trying to do this rather than selling at the top because it is more reliable although there is less ROI than trying to sell the top. This is not really my style of trading but many people will be selling now because of that.

My final point that I would like you to know about is the 11 MA is ticking down, as well as the RSI which was already at resistance.

So my target to buy would be where that green horizantal line is, which fits with the 0.5 retracement level at exactly 2.87 USD. This would be a very healthy retracement and create a double bottom if we bounce there.

The other scenario is that the bulls manage to create a huge downwards wick in the green buy zone and push above the upwards sloping trendline in order to liquidate the bears. I would personally be happy with either option, but I'm really doubting the bulls have that much fuel to throw at it right now.
My buy signal will be either a daily close above the green zone, or a bounce off the 0.5 fiv level.

Log chart, showing the break of the parabola and symetrical triangle.


Please don't forget to leave a like! There is much more to come.

Previous analysis:
Comment:

This just shows how important it is to look on all timeframes. 1 hour could even close as a bullish engulfing candle.
Comment:
Bullish spinning top just confirmed on 4 hour. We are still waiting for daily close.
Comment: Okay above was a complete fakeout, and infact not a bullish candle but an indecision candle before making a drop. Stop hit from my long in profit, and now waiting for buy signal. It should bounce with some decent volume, or we will likely see even lower prices than this.
Comment: This is not looking good guys. Bulls really not showing any strength at all and in fact bears have clearly taken over as I am now seeing a DOWNWARDS parabola forming.
Comment: Seems very likely that the retrace to wave one (0.236) scenario will play out now.
Comment: Current bounce looks convincing
Comment:

Still waiting patiently for daily confirmation.
Comment:
Likely to see a bounce here and possibly temp low.
Do you think the $2.95 touch we just had was your bottom? Or do you still believe that $2.87ish is still the number? Thank you! I just started following very good content.
+2 Reply
Etch1234 antman24
@antman24, thank you. Not the bottom for sure now. Pretty certain it can go lower than this, see latest update.
Reply
antman24 Etch1234
@Etch1234, thank you for the reply! I will check it out for sure and thank you for the content.
Reply
Thank you for sharing with the community, great work :)
Reply
I agree to your count and analysis. I have made exactly same TA on link. I am waiting for the pump soon.
Reply
mrx993 mrx993
@mrx993, i went out
Reply
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