LINK 3 scenarios at the first quarter moon
I have outllined 3 scenarios.
First, there is the green line where we break up out of this triangle and retest the dotted trendline. This would likely be sparked by bullish news about staking. There was this article that came out yesterday where we are finally given an estimate of staking which is rather sooner than most anticipated. thedefiant.substack....-neglecting-data-33a
"In the coming months, he’s most looking forward to continue supporting DeFi, increasing the number of data inputs Chainlink provides, and adding staking to better align incentives for node operators."
Personally I do not see this as having a big impact on price in the short term, as it could be any number of months. Furthermore, this is a secondary source so it could be misquoted or even fabricated outright. However, it is possible that LINk breaks up out of this triangle anyway, announcement or not. This could be a "buy the rumour, sell the news" outcome.
The second scenario is the red line where it fakes out with low volume and slides along it then dumps. This is quite a common pattern historically for LINK. If this happens, it could turn into a wedge (yellow line) then probably put in bearish divergence and dump. It could still go as high as 4.34 from this.
Thirdly is the orange line where we simply reject the trendline and eventually break down. This is supported by declining volume in this greater uptrend (click and drag scale to zoom out.) However this is normal in a triangle or wedge formation for breaking in either direction.
Between today and tomorrow is a half-full moon, or first quarter so I expect some action between today and then. Have a look at what happened halfway between new and full moons in the past if you are interested. ;)
Until then, watch volume and let me know your analysis in the comments.
Love,
Etch <3
First, there is the green line where we break up out of this triangle and retest the dotted trendline. This would likely be sparked by bullish news about staking. There was this article that came out yesterday where we are finally given an estimate of staking which is rather sooner than most anticipated. thedefiant.substack....-neglecting-data-33a
"In the coming months, he’s most looking forward to continue supporting DeFi, increasing the number of data inputs Chainlink provides, and adding staking to better align incentives for node operators."
Personally I do not see this as having a big impact on price in the short term, as it could be any number of months. Furthermore, this is a secondary source so it could be misquoted or even fabricated outright. However, it is possible that LINk breaks up out of this triangle anyway, announcement or not. This could be a "buy the rumour, sell the news" outcome.
The second scenario is the red line where it fakes out with low volume and slides along it then dumps. This is quite a common pattern historically for LINK. If this happens, it could turn into a wedge (yellow line) then probably put in bearish divergence and dump. It could still go as high as 4.34 from this.
Thirdly is the orange line where we simply reject the trendline and eventually break down. This is supported by declining volume in this greater uptrend (click and drag scale to zoom out.) However this is normal in a triangle or wedge formation for breaking in either direction.
Between today and tomorrow is a half-full moon, or first quarter so I expect some action between today and then. Have a look at what happened halfway between new and full moons in the past if you are interested. ;)
Until then, watch volume and let me know your analysis in the comments.
Love,
Etch <3
Comment:
Comment:
looking like it might be following the green path, which would mean some consolidation here. no major sign of macro weakness yet.
