Possible decrease to $0.83 to $0.96 bottom by 2022-02-16, then up to $2.36 by 2022-04-20, after such an incredible increase throughout all of 2021. Long-term by 2025 there could be much higher prices; perhaps above $6.96 by 2025-04.
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Excitement for lithium is increasing earlier than expected during the largest consumer spending month of the year (estimated NOV 27th 2021 to DEC 27th 2021). However, if and only if consumer spending rapidly declines in early FEB 2022 or if there are any declines in consumer demand, then this could perhaps be reflected in a 2 week or 6 week decline in the Lithium prices. After consumer demand picks back up (if there is a decline), then this could increase Lithium to much higher levels between MAR 2022 and DEC 2022.
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WW3/WW4 may indirectly cause more lithium shortages; especially over the next 24 months. Shortages can cause the market price to increase.
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I am very satisfied with this forecast, as the dip did in fact occur slightly after the estimated time-frame. The velocity and depth of the dip are very similar to the forecast.
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Risk of recession and / or a decline in consumption can decrease the demand for the lithium; which can help lower the price of lithium even-though there may be some shortages at times. These two factors are actually balancing or stabilizing the price of lithium.
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Stabilization effects as mentioned on 2023-05-12 (comment directly above):
Do you think it will slightly dip around 2022-12-12 or 2023-01-12?
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@public000000000000000, $2.43 was the bottom. There may be a tiny dip if there are massive lockdowns (deflation induced) or massive deflation. However, generally, it is expected to continue upward. There may be sudden pumps, followed by natural tiny dips for corrections. Overall the trend should remain upward over the next 4 years.