LMT LONG — 12H ALMA Setup (WR 77%)

█ SETUP

Lockheed Martin · NYSE:LMT · 12H · long only.

ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1 bar to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.

Strategy Tester (LMT 12H · OV460):
Win rate 77% · profit factor 1.8 · max drawdown 6%
Typical hold ~72 bars on winners · defense prime sleeve

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█ WHY NOW

Defense names filled on the same US opening bell that closed power and software legs elsewhere in the book.

Fresh 12H ALMA long at 23 Jun 13:30 UTC ~$493.4 — first bar on the template, slightly green.

Hard stop −10% from entry ~$444. Exits follow Pine ALMA rules or the hard stop — no price target picked by hand.

LMT here is the defense / aerospace refill after Monday's GEV power exit — related sector theme, different ticker and slower 12H clock.

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█ MACRO

Geopolitics: Middle East de-escalation headlines (60-day roadmap talk) did not remove defense bid — primes still trade as long-duration capex, not one-day oil beta.

Calendar: PCE week — defense can outperform when growth scares meet sticky inflation (mixed macro, not a clean risk-on day).

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Base case: 12H ALMA stays long-biased · LMT consolidates above the $493 entry while defense sleeve builds in the journal.

Bear case: risk-off + yield spike into PCE · 12H ALMA flips · −10% stop near $444.