LRCX very bullish yet very volatile setup. I posted recently but have recognized my initial count was not correct. The correct count is the following:
- LRCX is completing the final leg of an Expanding Triangle as the 5th wave of a larger Expanded Flat, which is the wave 4 of a larger motive sequence that started a decade ago off the low around 31.17.
- the B wave of the Wave 4 expanded flat was its all time high of 731.85 in Jan 2022, which was a 1.418 extension of the A of EF (thus, the A of 4)
- There are multiple indications that Friday May 20 was bottom (f leg of expanding triangle, c of v of C of 4):
1) pinbar candle on the daily chart
2) showed support at the A level around 450 and at the same time found support at the downtrend off the Jan high - the pinbar tail got bought up quick at that 450
3) 3 counts down off the e leg completed Friday May 20 - it is currently on second count of 3 up
4) the retracement of B of expanding flat showed equality with the previous extension at about 1.418
*Minimum target is the upper trendline of expanding triangle around 520 (should test that this week and attempt breakout)
**Intermediate target if we get breakout is 548
*** Goal target is new All time high above 731 (estimating 786) to complete wave 5 of the bullish impulse by August-October of 2022.
I will post a bigger picture view idea to reference for the overall counts, this idea was meant to focus on the zoomed in expanding triangle which indicates breakout is imminent. Interesting that breakout attempt is aligning time wise with NVDA earnings May 25. If they beat it would likely provide catalyst for the inductry to run and LRCX perfect setup to move big up.
Best,
A. Crawley
- LRCX is completing the final leg of an Expanding Triangle as the 5th wave of a larger Expanded Flat, which is the wave 4 of a larger motive sequence that started a decade ago off the low around 31.17.
- the B wave of the Wave 4 expanded flat was its all time high of 731.85 in Jan 2022, which was a 1.418 extension of the A of EF (thus, the A of 4)
- There are multiple indications that Friday May 20 was bottom (f leg of expanding triangle, c of v of C of 4):
1) pinbar candle on the daily chart
2) showed support at the A level around 450 and at the same time found support at the downtrend off the Jan high - the pinbar tail got bought up quick at that 450
3) 3 counts down off the e leg completed Friday May 20 - it is currently on second count of 3 up
4) the retracement of B of expanding flat showed equality with the previous extension at about 1.418
*Minimum target is the upper trendline of expanding triangle around 520 (should test that this week and attempt breakout)
**Intermediate target if we get breakout is 548
*** Goal target is new All time high above 731 (estimating 786) to complete wave 5 of the bullish impulse by August-October of 2022.
I will post a bigger picture view idea to reference for the overall counts, this idea was meant to focus on the zoomed in expanding triangle which indicates breakout is imminent. Interesting that breakout attempt is aligning time wise with NVDA earnings May 25. If they beat it would likely provide catalyst for the inductry to run and LRCX perfect setup to move big up.
Best,
A. Crawley
Comment:
Taking some off here (calls, shares just hold its got a lot more in the tank), could retest the low 520 breakout area next week to establish support before going higher.
