I hope no one got trapped in this nasty scam of a coin that is Litecoin. The accumulation was brief, and it seems like the scammers behind it are taking profits, so prepare for a 9 day decline back to where it started to rally, unless support holds. I would still, not like to be involved with something so easily manipulated and shaken around due to being illiquid, and supply concentrated in very few huge holders' hands.
Trade larger, safer markets, with a better and fairer distribution method.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Comment
⋅
If it doesn't fall within 4 more days, and holds above the yellow line, it might form an uptrend continuation setup. If you're trading it, look for that level to hold.
Comment
⋅
It's now looking to be supported, early to tell. You could look to reenter longs soon, but there are safer markets to trade...unless this one really becomes more liquid, but there's always risk with the huge concentration of coins in few hands.
Comment
⋅
By tomorrow, the market will have spent enough time going sideways, to justify assuming the uptrend can continue higher. A dip just a tad lower would set up a low risk buy, if you want to give it a try. Factor in volatility to size the trade correctly. An 11 period ATR indicator value is a good measure of risk.
Comment
⋅
The market would need to accumulate in this zone to launch a new uptrend signal from here.
Overall, the problem with LTC, is that the huge quarterly mode in fiat charts, is mostly miners unloading coins. Miners can easily hold off from selling, and since the market isn't too liquid it can rally rapidly. That is a big problem with coins that had unfair distributions initially, or that are held by few large holders. It can be easy to manipulate them.
If the Segwit activation takes place, I assume the hype could last longer, propelling LTC higher, but right now there is no solid technical setup to buy into now. If you bought lower, you could just reduce your exposure to minimize risk and wait if you believe in this coin. Personally I don't like it, so I prefer not to trade it.
Comment
⋅
It might be interesting to watch it though, since it might be a 'testnet' of sorts for Segwit, which could translate into BTC adopting it, and eventually launching into a rally, if LTC's experiment proves to be a bullish catalyst.
The problem with that logic is that since this market is so easy to manipulate, the rally might NOT be due to Segwit, and it might just be a way of making Segwit appear bullish, which is something BTC core devs might want, and could have arranged together with Charlie Lee and LTC miners...so, yeah, I don't like this coin nor trust the market data. There are better things to trade. Do your due diligence.
Comment
⋅
If it holds around here it might continue to be accumulated, I'm flat but watching it.
Comment
⋅
The catalyst is out now, and it can rally for some time. I was wrong about this one, but ok since I didn't trade it. I still would rather tread carefully with it and not trade big overall.
Comment
⋅
-I did tell some people who asked to go long...last night though, I can post screenshots for the potential ltc fans who might hate on me haha-
Comment
⋅
16.99 is target #1, above that it could go to $30, but there is lower odds of that happening without seeing a reaction at 16.99 first. It can rally for a week more give or take.
agreed, hype is over. Made 600 btc on it. Time to short!
ltc-joe
⋅
Love your work, but this negative attitude towards ltc is off. Things have changed. Ltc very much deserves a place in the market. The mindset should be buy the dip, not short the top. I think we are going to .0061-0071 then sideways, then eventually start making new highs again. Should be interesting to see how it plays out. Thanks.
blackswan
⋅
by the way your previous chart still seems valid... :)
IvanLabrie
⋅
@blackswan, that old chart hit the top and stopped trending very quickly. The timeframe for it isn't valid to analyze now, because so many weeks took place since then.
blackswan
⋅
this is the first time i hear from you calling ltc as "scamcoin" lol... why the sudden negative attitude? is that another way of you spilling sorrows? this is the only coin that retained one of the top positions since its inception in 2011... a true scamcoin wouldn't last even a year...
modiX
⋅
This was a poor hype, screw this LTC. BTC, once to rule them all. BTC will always get back to its old high and beat it. LTC? What's that? Just an altcoin nobody cares of, cmon.
blackswan
⋅
@modiX, you sound sour grapes. perhaps this was "poor hype" for unlucky traders like you? Also as an "altcoin nobody cares of" seems to be no 4 position with global marketcap of $533,183,559. it's been longer than most of the current alts and yet still around.
coinmarketcap.com/currencies/litecoin/
IvanLabrie
⋅
@blackswan, hi, no sour grapes or anything. I am just updating the analysis. I never reccomended a short, mind you. I was simply stating what to look for. And if the market didn't follow through (it didn't continue falling!), it was actually a potential bullish signal, given the importance of the yellow box resistance level.
I also pointed out that in an old forecast I had stipulated a level for a potential bottom target, that since LTC surged after hitting it, it could have been a long term bottom for it.
Trading is not about predicting, but more about reacting and letting the market show its hand first.
You simply didn't get what I was saying.
ltc-joe
⋅
@IvanLabrie, I don't think he was responding to you, he was responding to the comment of @modiX ...which was a silly one.
I appreciate your ability to remain objective. In reference to your update--not sure where you are coming from on the liquidity risk, large number of coins in a few hands is just a characteristic of alt coins in general IMO...looking at liquidity from a broader perspective, I would say ltc is actually the most liquid alt, as it is traded on more exchanges than any other alt. Now the pair of ltc/btc is admittedly highly volatile, there is a clear pattern of taking the elevator up and the stairs down, but ltc/usd has been extremely stable until this bull run. Anyway thanks for your analysis.
blackswan
⋅
@IvanLabrie, wasn't calling you sour grapes cause i know you're a good trader, it was directed at someone else more suitable to that term...
i have high respects for your knowledge in fact you improved a lot lately but calling litecoin a scamcoin kindda sounded biased and unprofessional of you. Not that i'm hardcore ltc fan or what. i usually trade everything and i get the trading part.. i'm just trying to point out that litecoin doesn't fall into the category of scamcoins not even by a mile... :)