The chart is pretty self explanatory--the price is acting very similarly to what preceded the last bubble. Of course that in it of itself does not mean another bubble will come to fruition, but the timing and fundamentals also seem to corroborate:
Yuan devaluation (ltc market is dominated by the yuan pair unlike any other alt, an under appreciated fact)
*Hype dying down from other alts
Recent addition to GDAX
Roadmap/plans for new features added to the protocol (segwit, confidential transactions, possibly smart contracts)
New found appreciation for scarce, immutable, thermodynamically secured (POW based) blockchains
Also, in terms of the technical picture, LTC/CNY is very close to clearing both its 100 and 200 Day MA’s, where as btc is already well above them. If and when it does--the momentum should pick up. Interestingly enough, both LTC/CNY and BTC/CNY are each setting up for their 50's to crossover their 100's, but for LTC/CNY there's also a Golden Cross (with the 200 day MA) in the works.
*Eth has stolen the spotlight and liquidity from ltc over the last year, but now it would appear the hype has died down after all of the ongoing crises's (DAO collapse, Bailout, HF/ETC, ongoing DDOS attacks, now another dual hard fork on the way, blah blah). ETC had its big bubble, but has yet to reflate (has to do it's own HF as well). The privacy coin play got a huge bump with XMR and its adoption in a big dark market, but now that bubble has popped. Zcash still on the way, worth keeping an eye on, but still many questions remain about it. Haven’t followed Ripple much but I know it had a big bump in recent months that died down as well.
If you take a look at this 1d chart...we are very oversold (also on the 3d and 1 wk as well!), we have a bullish div on the MACD, and we are due for a reversal--either here or if the black trendline breaks—then at the next level of support .0048-.005. So, taking the above into consideration--coupled with the pressure building up on LTC/CNY, the moon is still very much in sight but keeping a close eye on that triangle.
So, to me that means the pull back in ltc/btc is likely over, we shall see, sort of looks like we just completed a corrective wave (expanding triangle) on the 2h chart:
Yes the timing of this idea was a complete bomb, so no need to rub that in my face, or feel free to but i'm aware and couldn't care less. With Litecoin, its not so much of a trade as it is an investment for me (sure I wish to sell most of my litecoin for bitcoin but there is some I will never sell and hold for the future).
I don't have a doubt that when segwit eventually goes through this will moon as bitcoin can not get consensus and lots of that market value will flow into litecoin. It is a matter of time before the cryptocurrency world realizes that litecoin is the answer to their problems or at least a great aid to them in terms of scaling. A win win for everyone involved. It makes perfect sense and is clear as day to me, eventually they will embrace this.
Segwit also opens the door for the lightning network which is in my opinion the single most exciting technology in cryptocurrencies, and further, it enables cross chain atomic transfers which can help make bitcoin and litecoin seamlessly interoperable and exchangeable. The future of litecoin is bright despite all the hate that exists, ns why (maybe b/c it was one of the first alts? and litecoiners were ridiculous and said it could replace bitcoin? idk but the hate is there).
Value will flow to litecoin organically, as water flows to an empty space. Considering all the BU fud with bitcoin, and the real possibility that bitcoin will fail to get consensus on any change (maybe thats a good thing for digital gold?) the possibility of litecoin becoming "the payment network" of cryptocurrencies is becoming a very realistic possibility. Jeff Garzik has even hinted at this a few times recently. Anyway, I digress, when LTC/CNY finally takes off which could be any week now the ratio will go with it, until then it can fall.
At a current price of $3.7, if we look at the first disaster target of
.00315 this implies a bitcoin price of $1174, which is interestingly enough around the all time high for bitcoin. The next targets of .0023-.0025 would imply a bitcoin price of between $1480 and $1600 for bitcoin, so if that happens in the coming weeks and litecoin is stable, sure the ratio can go that low.
I will use it as an opportunity. Best of luck to you all, don't risk what you can't afford to lose, and if you can't make up your own decision on investments or trades and blame others for that, you probably should not be trading. Patience is a virtue. Those are my thoughts, good luck.