btc_joe
Long

LTC/BTC finally ready for the bull market?

BTCE:LTCBTC   Litecoin / Bitcoin
1221 18 14
I've been watching (and accumulating) ltc for almost a year now, I'll admit I was fooled by the false break out in April-May but I have used the last few months as an opportunity to pick up more at lower levels and improve my cost basis. The risk vs reward seems like a great play here. To me the upside potential is much greater than the downside unless you believe ltc is on the brink of existential collapse (possible but unlikely). As alway be safe, use appropriate stops, and consider all possibilities.

The chart is pretty self explanatory--the price is acting very similarly to what preceded the last bubble. Of course that in it of itself does not mean another bubble will come to fruition, but the timing and fundamentals also seem to corroborate:

Yuan devaluation (ltc market is dominated by the yuan pair unlike any other alt, an under appreciated fact)
*Hype dying down from other alts
Recent addition to GDAX
Roadmap/plans for new features added to the protocol (segwit, confidential transactions, possibly smart contracts)
New found appreciation for scarce, immutable, thermodynamically secured (POW based) blockchains

Also, in terms of the technical picture, LTC/CNY is very close to clearing both its 100 and 200 Day MA’s, where as btc             is already well above them. If and when it does--the momentum should pick up. Interestingly enough, both LTC/CNY and BTC/CNY             are each setting up for their 50's to crossover their 100's, but for LTC/CNY there's also a Golden Cross (with the 200 day MA) in the works.

*Eth has stolen the spotlight and liquidity from ltc over the last year, but now it would appear the hype has died down after all of the ongoing crises's (DAO collapse, Bailout, HF/ETC, ongoing DDOS attacks, now another dual hard fork on the way, blah blah). ETC had its big bubble, but has yet to reflate (has to do it's own HF as well). The privacy coin play got a huge bump with XMR and its adoption in a big dark market, but now that bubble has popped. Zcash still on the way, worth keeping an eye on, but still many questions remain about it. Haven’t followed Ripple much but I know it had a big bump in recent months that died down as well.

Comment: For whatever the reason a lot of the notes on the chart as well as on the MACD and RSI are not coming out clearly on the published version, so here is a much clearer screen shot of the chart if you want to catch the details: http://imgur.com/a/WUN0U
Comment: Even clearer (made the MACD notes in black text): http://imgur.com/a/9eSor
Comment: Here is how things look a bit closer in (this is a daily chart)...i'm not an expert in EW but to me it looks like we may have just had an ABCDE divergent triangle for wave 4--and now we have either just completed or should soon complete wave 5:
LTC/BTC EW 1D
Comment: Nice bullish div forming here on the 1d RSI:  
Comment: So, we have a massive triangle building up on LTC/CNY with a 1 wk bband squeeze: http://imgur.com/a/2mRoo …there is no more room in this triangle it should resolve within the next week or two. In terms of LTC/BTC, the bad news is that we fell below my pink danger line of support (drawn from the double bottom on the 1 wk chart), but we have reached support from the descending black trendline (drawn from the most recent highs on the 1 week chart).

If you take a look at this 1d chart...we are very oversold (also on the 3d and 1 wk as well!), we have a bullish div on the MACD, and we are due for a reversal--either here or if the black trendline breaks—then at the next level of support .0048-.005. So, taking the above into consideration--coupled with the pressure building up on LTC/CNY, the moon is still very much in sight but keeping a close eye on that triangle.
ltc/btc
Comment: LTC/CNY broke down out of the triangle, but found support on the 1d chart while BTC/CNY took a much bigger dive % wise: http://imgur.com/a/2EzwX This is interesting, it would have been a perfect opportunity for market makers to wreck ltc but it held up well and the ratio is creeping up. Now, ultimately ltc/btc must rise in a btc bull market for it to be sustainable...but this seems like a good sign, as long as btc reverses sometime soon ltc/btc can rally:
ltc/btc
Comment: Nice break out since my last update on the ratio, but pulled back and still below the major resistance at the moment (from the pink trendline on weekly). LTC/CNY has just broken out of the major triangle though: http://imgur.com/a/VZ3gm

So, to me that means the pull back in ltc/btc is likely over, we shall see, sort of looks like we just completed a corrective wave (expanding triangle) on the 2h chart:
ltc/btc
Comment: Bullish divergence on 4h RSI for ltc/btc
ltc/btc
Comment: An analysis in time (see text description in chart):
ltc/btc time analysis
Comment: https://twitter.com/btc_joe/status/800365108803170304
Comment: Looks like break out coming, possible we could flash to bottom trendline, but all higher Time Frames are exhausted...moon soon:
ltc/btc
Comment:  
Comment:
ltc/btc
Comment: Also forgot to add the 1 week view...RSI most oversold in history:
LTC/BTC
Comment: patience:
ltc/btc
Comment: diamond bottom?  
Comment: Posted this on twitter a few days ago, forgot to add here:
ltc/btc
Comment:
ltc/btc
Comment: Here is the zoomed out view (1d) which shows what one could interpret as a messy H + S pattern. At the beginning of a new trend, the bears always think they are still in charge, and thus wave 2 of the trend can retrace very far, but as long as their are no new lows here we are looking good:
ltc/btc
Comment: If anyone's still following this idea lol ill update, it looks like .0035 may fall here if bitcoin continues on up, *if it does--here are some good disaster targets (I personally will use it as an opportunity):
ltc/btc


Yes the timing of this idea was a complete bomb, so no need to rub that in my face, or feel free to but i'm aware and couldn't care less. With Litecoin, its not so much of a trade as it is an investment for me (sure I wish to sell most of my litecoin for bitcoin but there is some I will never sell and hold for the future).

I don't have a doubt that when segwit eventually goes through this will moon as bitcoin can not get consensus and lots of that market value will flow into litecoin. It is a matter of time before the cryptocurrency world realizes that litecoin is the answer to their problems or at least a great aid to them in terms of scaling. A win win for everyone involved. It makes perfect sense and is clear as day to me, eventually they will embrace this.

Segwit also opens the door for the lightning network which is in my opinion the single most exciting technology in cryptocurrencies, and further, it enables cross chain atomic transfers which can help make bitcoin and litecoin seamlessly interoperable and exchangeable. The future of litecoin is bright despite all the hate that exists, ns why (maybe b/c it was one of the first alts? and litecoiners were ridiculous and said it could replace bitcoin? idk but the hate is there).

Value will flow to litecoin organically, as water flows to an empty space. Considering all the BU fud with bitcoin, and the real possibility that bitcoin will fail to get consensus on any change (maybe thats a good thing for digital gold?) the possibility of litecoin becoming "the payment network" of cryptocurrencies is becoming a very realistic possibility. Jeff Garzik has even hinted at this a few times recently. Anyway, I digress, when LTC/CNY finally takes off which could be any week now the ratio will go with it, until then it can fall.

At a current price of $3.7, if we look at the first disaster target of
.00315 this implies a bitcoin price of $1174, which is interestingly enough around the all time high for bitcoin. The next targets of .0023-.0025 would imply a bitcoin price of between $1480 and $1600 for bitcoin, so if that happens in the coming weeks and litecoin is stable, sure the ratio can go that low.

I will use it as an opportunity. Best of luck to you all, don't risk what you can't afford to lose, and if you can't make up your own decision on investments or trades and blame others for that, you probably should not be trading. Patience is a virtue. Those are my thoughts, good luck.
Comment: Was in a bit of a rush when i made that chart, here is the neater, cleaner version:
LTC/BTC
Comment: Since China has been in dead fish mode since the PBOC suspension of withdrawals...i've been watching US$ levels on BTC-E. Lots of resistance on the daily chart in the $3.85-$4 range, good level to keep any eye on.
Hey Mr. Joe, what are comments on recent dump action? Is market preparing for some volume and then pump it or is it dead because Litecoin developers didn't keep their word and didn't release update?
+1 Reply
btc_joe PRO Sharkwinn
@Sharkwinn, Pretty wild eh? As i said before this week market was most oversold in history, amongst other conditions showing exhaustion...but there was yet to be a selling climax, so it seems like we are in the midst of capitulation, unfortunately LTC/CNY broke all support for its major triangle which is not a good sign! I would like to see us back above 26 CNY before ltc/btc can really move. So what do I think? I don't think ltc is dead, could be wrong (have been wrong in recent months a bunch : )). We shall see, ltc/btc certainly can fall further down, but its often darkest before the dawn. So time will tell, I think the update can be a catalyst for sure, but wouldnt be surprised to see ltc/btc fall further before reversing. A lot depends on btc also. Have to see how things play out : )
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Sharkwinn btc_joe
@btc_joe, TY and I have a special talent to buy just seconds before shit hits the fan. Watched this for a year and decided to buy few days ago :)
+1 Reply
btc_joe PRO Sharkwinn
@Sharkwinn, hahaa feel ya...i was buying in the .007xx and .006xx's so feel your pain. Quick look at the chart...possible we are getting support from green trendline, would like to see us back over .0048 by the end of the week if this is going to reverse soon, check back later on to see how things are going:
ltc/btc
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LTC is bloody torture. I'm sure you are right but it might kill you first. It's always been this way for me. I usually avoid it but decided to hold some and I will not let it's lackadaisical attitude beat me. But boy its a shit of a coin to get going. It will though, after its near dead body has been kicked around a while, it will jump up like a cadaver injected with adrenaline. Honestly its a fucker lol
+1 Reply
@dub00, Well said, as I mentioned in the update, a flash down to bottom trendline not out of the question but zooming out downtrend seems totally exhausted. So with LTC/CNY appearing to break out, I think "this time is really different" so to say : ) And ya thats the thing, ltc is literally dead for 99% of its life or has been I should say, but if you have a position for that 1% of the time...boy oh boy does it pay off! In other words, as i'm sure you have heard, with stocks there is a saying that it likes to take the stairs up, and the elevator down, I think the perfect description of litecoin price action overall is that it likes to take the stairs down and the elevator up : )
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@btc_joe, With ltc/cny *appears to be ready for a break out I should say:
LTC/CNY
Would like to see us above horizontal resistance for full confirmation
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