Looks like we've hit the bottom of the new channel twice, and it's currently trying to break through the next level. If it fails, expect to hit the bottom again before going up (or going down and breaking out of the channel, but I don't believe it'll do that considering all the good things happening with LTC). This has likely been a "sell the news" drop, I expect it to recover and rally again pretty soon.
The red dashed line near the top is a trendline created by the biggest previous tops - so it'll be major if we break it and it turns into support.
Will update as things progress...
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Just realized the red trendline I was talking about didn't show up, here it is:
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Wider view:
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Moment of truth - it's trying to decide if it wants to leave the channel right now. It's dipped out of it slightly but not in any way I'd call a breakout yet - it's fighting to stay in it. If it successfully breaks back in and starts going up again, it might be a good buy in point.
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Here's a closer up view. Not sure what it's going to do yet, but if it were going to try to go back up, there's a thin point on the Ichimoku Cloud that would be easy to break through.
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Stochastic is low on a wide range of timeframes, looking good for some UP
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Back in the channel! Let's see if it holds up - stochastic is high on the 5 minute chart so it'll probably need to recharge, maybe test the channel boundary again, but otherwise everything else is low. Once that 5 minute stochastic hits bottom again and starts to reverse, I'm in.
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Trying to break through the thin part of the cloud I was talking about! But stochastic is still high on the 5m, let's see if it gains the momentum it needs...
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Watching closely because it's possible this might be an expanding wedge:
If it doesn't break through that cloud I'll be a little worried.
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looking pretty god but there is a lot of resistance, let's see
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Those walls are being chewed up like crazy! I think we might have successfully invalidated that broadening wedge!
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Testing that line - watch for opportunities to buy the dip. Low stochastic on the 5m chart might be one of them
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still holding up really well. if we can get that stochastic back down to the bottom without making a new low, we're good to go. Even better if we get it down to the bottom without even breaking that line...
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Back under the line, but both the stochastic & the RSI are falling fast. Now I'm watching to see if it breaks
1) the bottom of the channel (pink line), 2) the ichimoku cloud 3) the previous low
Breaking the previous low would be bad. But otherwise, if the stochastic or the RSI bottom out without making a new low, we'll have a nice bullish divergence and it would be a great entry point once it starts to climb again.
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Bounced off the bottom of the cloud, RSI getting low...
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still doing battle with the bottom of the channel. Stochastic is low but no divergences so far - and I'd like the stochastic on the 15min chart to get a little lower too. But overall looking like the bottom of the channel is holding up well so far. If we start pulling up and away from the bottom, I'll feel very bullish.
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testing the cloud again, on the edge of my seat...
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would be surprised if it broke downwards through the cloud in the short term, think it's going to hold the line for the moment:
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So it did break below the cloud, but not in any kind of worrying way and it looks set to tackle it again:
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Bitcoin is crashing and Poloniex is getting DDOS'ed again...someone's trying to keep alts from rallying and spook the markets.
Right on a knife's edge here...if it doesn't fall lower than the last peak we have a really nice bullish divergence...if it does fall below I'll re-evaluate.
I'll start to get worried and potentially reduce my long if we break below 0.01618
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palms are sweaty....mom's spaghetti...
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Getting some strong buy signals on the 5m and 15m charts - this may have been a short term double bottom...
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Blasted through the cloud & back up into the channel - 1000 btc buy wall being flashed on poloniex. That usually mean manipulation, but hey if someone's manipulating it UP that's fine with me, as long as we start getting some real power behind the rally...let's see what happens
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Welp, that's a pretty convincing downward breakout. Reducing my position for now and waiting to see what happens
ok im short, ok im long, no, im short, non no im long WTF man?! Stop to post this shit!
Oops_I_Charted
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@atractor19655, If you read through, I was already long...the only actual trade I made was at the end, when I reduced my long once it was clear that it wasn't going to stick to the channel.
Everything I wrote was about whether or not it would stay in the channel - just trying to let people know what to watch for, because I thought we may have been at a bottom. I didn't tell anyone they should be going long (actually in one of the comments I told someone I DIDN'T think it was a foolproof entry), if you think anything I said was bad advice let me know...but anyway I'm sorry if you're offended by all the effort I put in yesterday trying to help people out lol
sashorx
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@Oops_I_Charted, Awesome job and analythical thinking. Thank you for sharing.
Maximus100
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Scrolling through these graphs feels like I'm on LSD--take it easy with all those colors! :P
donmecha
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great updates thank you for this post
UnknownUnicorn788630
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Good decision. LTC rally is over. THere might be one more dead cat bounce, but previous high won't be broken for at least 12 months (maybe next year during the next halving?). It's over; longing LTC now is way too risky, little reward. Shorting is the way to go :).
MTraveller
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Very detailed, I like that. High five.
baker13
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thanks man for live updates! keep on doing great job