Just released are two targets and a solid support referenced by the RED dashed line. Several technical events worth noting, most noticeably a positive divergence conjugated with a volume spike. These two events are multiplicative ... NOT random, hence our BULLISH targets.
Cheers,
David Alcindor | 4xQuad.com
Comments
flibbr
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Any attempt to trade LTC/BTC will fail due to 1 wildly swinging variables. Only LTC/USD or BTC/USD can be traded profitably imo.
ronfkingswanson
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I made all my coin profits trading only LTC/BTC from the beginning. Only trading into USD recently because of all the fiat I was sitting on after the bubble.
flibbr
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Problem is, 99% of the time, any swings in BTC/LTC/USD values ~ LTC/BTC has very little unchanged because the LTC/BTC ratio doesn't change much as LTC seems to follow BTC.
ronfkingswanson
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yes it does track closely - and it has certain average ratios it prefers to maintain. That's what makes it so profitable when you can see that ratio deviate for too long off the mean...
flibbr
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Ah you see.. thats the kind of thinking which will get you in trouble and make you lose LOADS of your coins. . . "it has certain average ratios it prefers to maintain" .. <-- that. Is 100% false.
If it had a 'certain average ratio to maintain', then this would imply, no matter how much adoption, acceptance, integration BTC has... LTC will always follow, which is of course, completely untrue.
wonderful essay. valid arguments. and yes I'm aware (having walked the summer LTC/BTC death march) of just how much the ratio can stretch. But I'm not making a case for the "true" value of LTC. I'm talking about trading opportunity. And if you know that there's a market "perception" - true or false - that LTC should snap back to certain ratios, then you have a pretty good indicator of where many traders will aim for when correcting, and you can anticipate those support levels.
ronfkingswanson
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and I mean very-long-term movements, not swing trading
flibbr
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Yes.. the last 6 months of decline was a brutal run, I did keep trading it down though but wow that hurt.. . the reason why it went down, from 0.036 to 0.007 was because BTC went up.. and LTC has no reason to go up.. only 75k USD Supporting it.. the only reason it bounced up now is so many noobs buying it (looking at the historical LTC/BTC ratio and thinking its cheap for example) and the old 'poor mans btc' syndrome. But really.. what does LTC offer that BTC doesn't ? Hence, I only think of LTC as a good way to take money off noobs.
ronfkingswanson
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LTC did not have any independent reason to move up more than bitcoin, no. Doesn't mean it's public awareness and utility was decreasing during that period. I personally watched wall after wall smothering LTC/BTC near the end, ratcheting down over a long period. I think it was easy to do with such a tiny market, and little reason for litecoin bullishness. But I also think it was done knowing that when the walls were removed, not only would there be an initial pop, but the hope would return to the chikuns and they would go nuts with rumors, which they did. Thus I see the summer bottom NOT as an indicator of how litecoin was getting worse *as a coin*, but how it was being surpressed for later profit.
4xForecaster
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RON: "... and it has certain average ratios it prefers to maintain ..."
This represents the crux of our consistent dead-on hits and precise forecasting of reversals. Traders have two options: 1) Realizing this "market physiologic" fact and derive profit from it, or 2) Postpone the acceptance of basic truths and delay their chance to live from it. The former mindset will tend benefit from profitable trading, as the trader rows his little dingy boat with the market stream; the latter mindset will tend to keep the trader from discovering new truths, as he depletes more energy than the market has time to outlive all allusions to the contrary.
I say this not to participate in any polemic, but to confirm years of painful experience and tedious learn, when in fact a shortcut existed all along, which was to accept simple facts about the market. What @ronfkingswanson mentioned is one central and so simple fact about this trading activity of ours.