However, it seems at least in this cycle a pull back could be anticipated for the following reasons:
1. at potential support.
2. suggesting that the move is very stretched and corresponding pull back in price might be already in progress.
The Fib Extensions could often help but most of these are failing due to lack of proper and the fact that it has declined so much. Nevertheless I have adjusted the counts for wave (iv) & (v) suggesting that wave (v) is well advanced and could complete soon but caution should be exercised.
Conclusion is that once we get a pull back we still have 1 more drive to compete wave iv of (v) that could form a bottom near 8 or probably 5.
noted above is also showing larger divergence in formation which if it holds could support the idea that final low could develop around 8 -5 zone.
LTC/BTC ratio chart has also broken down and is shown below with counts adjusted accordingly.
Similarly, the we have been following as our roadmap also has some way to go yet, hence further weakness is expected and may be both will bottom together.
So unfortunately the light of day will shine through but appears to be postponed for now.
As always, do you own analysis and be quick to adjust you views according to progression of price data with time.
Even less LTC, its fundamentals are completely destroyed, developers abandoned it, people are losing hope in it, chinese scrypt mining cartels mine and sell, at one point buyers will disappear and it will die.
If BTC is falling, imagine how hard LTC will fall, when its sole purpose was to provide an alternative to the ASIC mined BTC? (you can now mine LTC with scrypt asics, making it completely inaccesible and unprofitable for the common folks, the play toy of the few who can manufacture their own asics for low cost and run them on free or ridiculously cheap power, whilst selling expensive mining machines that will never ROI to the bigger fool).
Fools will get bored of getting scammed one day.
How familiar are you with the mining industry Dan?
BTC had the first mover advantage, LTC had the first altcoin (that became popular) advantage.
It doesn't have anything else going for it, specially after the developments in this field, and how the community evolved (and how many times they were scammed).
If you read bitcointalk.org and twitter, you'll understand what's driving the moves, and in general, outside the BTC field, it's manipulation and irrational speculators driven by greed who know nothing about financial markets.
Have a great week Dan!
IMO, thinking in terms of developments and innovation is a fundamental mistake when considering litecoin's utility. "Innovations" are usually just marketing tools used to promote various shitcoin PnDs. LTC, on the other hand, has significant MARKET advantages, advantages that make it a powerful tool for speculators. It's a brand name. It's tradable directly for USD on some exchanges. It's also available on exchanges where it's possible for Americans to deposit USD directly (BFX, Cryptsy). It's cheap and liquid. And as I mentioned before, it's bitcoin's natural trading partner. That means its fate—and price—are essentially tethered to bitcoin. Some may see that as a fatal flaw/liability, but I don't. It means that litecoin still has significant value to market making speculators, because it's relatively easy to manipulate, and it serves as an alternate entry/exit point into the bitcoin market.
Maybe I'm nuts, but I think litecoin's future is virtually assured, and least in the short-term, BECAUSE of its position as bitcoin's speculative little brother. Obviously its position could easily change as the crypto currency ecosystem matures, for now, I think it's too useful (and profitable) a tool to just be left by the wayside. When bitcoin turns bull again, IMO litecoin will follow—spectacularly, if history rhymes.
My money's where my mouth is on this one, so let's hope I'm not barking at the moon here. :)
Could there be a lot more room to the downside? Yes, absolutely. But take a look at the historical behavior of the LTC/BTC ratio when bitcoin bubbles. In the past two bubbles, IIRC, the ratio shot from around .0075 to .05 in a matter of WEEKS. That means essentially taking bitcoin's USD appreciation, and multiplying that by a factor of 6.66. Are market makers/manipulators going to just walk away from this golden goose? They may certainly manipulate the price into oblivion to shake out all of the true believers (and mining competitors), but I doubt they walk away from litecoin entirely. In fact, looking at the obviously manipulated nature of the LTC/BTC ratio cycle, one could plausibly make the argument that bitcoin bubbles are specifically engineered so that the majority of this wealth can be extracted on the sly... through LTC.
I'd love to hear some feedback on these ideas... crazy talk?
Sure would welcome this debate from others with more input.
It's more work sure, but I can reliably make certain % per month, whereas with altcoins it's more akin to gambling.
Some miners are indeed mining and dumping straight away however this selling pressure will be halved around June/July, when Litecoin encounters its first block half event. I do agree that Litecoin was originally intended to avoid ASIC miners with the scrypt algorithm, however no coin can be made ASIC proof. The cost of mining hardware currently does centralise mining however over time we should see them become cheap and widely available similar to how mainframes in the early days were centralised until it was cheap enough for personal computers to become common place.
Liquidity for Litecoin is the second most traded coin with millions of dollars worth of Litecoin traded per day and is the only other coin accepted on all major exchanges. It is also the only other coin which has a derivatives market.
People would be losing hope in it due to the declining price, but the same can be said for Bitcoin until it bottoms out. When these coins turn bullish then you'll see the hope renewed and another crazy rise like when it went from $1 to $48 in a week.