DanV
Short

LTCCNY - Litecoin Could Be About To See The Day Light - Updated

OKCOIN:LTCCNY   Litecoin / Chinese Yuan
Unfortunately, the support we identified in previously published chart gave way for another bearish move. Reviewing the wave counts are not made easy in instruments likes this particularly with lack of historical data.

However, it seems at least in this bearish cycle a pull back could be anticipated for the following reasons:

1. RSI at potential support.
2. ADX suggesting that the move is very stretched and corresponding pull back in price might be already in progress.

The Fib Extensions could often help but most of these are failing due to lack of proper pivot points and the fact that it has declined so much. Nevertheless I have adjusted the counts for wave (iv) & (v) suggesting that wave (v) is well advanced and could complete soon but caution should be exercised.

Conclusion is that once we get a pull back we still have 1 more drive to compete wave iv of (v) that could form a bottom near 8 or probably 5.

RSI noted above is also showing larger divergence in formation which if it holds could support the idea that final low could develop around 8 -5 zone.

LTC/BTC ratio chart has also broken down and is shown below with counts adjusted accordingly.

Similarly, the BTC daily chart we have been following as our roadmap also has some way to go yet, hence further weakness is expected and may be both will bottom together.

So unfortunately the light of day will shine through but appears to be postponed for now.

As always, do you own analysis and be quick to adjust you views according to progression of price data with time.
DanV MOD
2 years ago
LTC/BTC Spread Ratio Chart
snapshot
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jacek.walewski.5 DanV
2 years ago
0.05 is still possible in August? This will be 5 Waves...
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DanV MOD jacek.walewski.5
2 years ago
You could be right. It's very hard to be precise for the reasons I gave earlier. But one to keep under review. Thanks.
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harposox jacek.walewski.5
2 years ago
Coincidentally (?), I believe August also coincides with litecoin's next halving.
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DanV MOD harposox
2 years ago
Interesting. Though I don't know how it might inter play with the price action. Thanks for your comment.
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harposox DanV
2 years ago
Me neither. It's a common justification used by crypto currency watchers to justify price action... whether it has any value or not in this regard is an open question. Reducing the supply of coins mined theoretically SHOULD cause a significant price bump, but in a market this manipulated and illiquid, who knows. The tin foil hatter in me kind of suspects that prices are controlled entirely by market makers, and that basing price analysis on "fundamentals" is a fool's errand.
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harposox jacek.walewski.5
2 years ago
In the past two cycles, .05 has indicated the blow-off top of the bitcoin and litecoin bubbles. Let's hope so!
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I think the problem is the lack of real liquidity in the early times...I don't think these instruments will have a bottom any time soon.

Even less LTC, its fundamentals are completely destroyed, developers abandoned it, people are losing hope in it, chinese scrypt mining cartels mine and sell, at one point buyers will disappear and it will die.
If BTC is falling, imagine how hard LTC will fall, when its sole purpose was to provide an alternative to the ASIC mined BTC? (you can now mine LTC with scrypt asics, making it completely inaccesible and unprofitable for the common folks, the play toy of the few who can manufacture their own asics for low cost and run them on free or ridiculously cheap power, whilst selling expensive mining machines that will never ROI to the bigger fool).

Fools will get bored of getting scammed one day.

How familiar are you with the mining industry Dan?
+2 Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
You could be right with your comments. I have no knowledge of the mining industry or more structural fabric around this. I am purely going from Technical Analysis and on the assumption that it continues. If it fails as an entity along with some of other Cryptos then I think many of the active traders and possibly investors will have learned or should learn a valuable lesson in that just focusing on positivity do not necessarily make a particular invention a success. Will follow development with keen interest. Thanks for your comments. Appreciate it.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
Indeed, I think of these as penny stocks...houses of cards.
BTC had the first mover advantage, LTC had the first altcoin (that became popular) advantage.
It doesn't have anything else going for it, specially after the developments in this field, and how the community evolved (and how many times they were scammed).
If you read bitcointalk.org and twitter, you'll understand what's driving the moves, and in general, outside the BTC field, it's manipulation and irrational speculators driven by greed who know nothing about financial markets.
Have a great week Dan!
+1 Reply
harposox IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Agree entirely that litecoin is driven entirely by manipulation and speculation, and yes, it's FULL of market noobs. No argument here. And yes, most alt coins are essentially penny stock pump and dumps. I'd even agree that litecoin itself is a pump and dump (see my earlier reply)—in a sense it's the grandest pump and dump of them all.

IMO, thinking in terms of developments and innovation is a fundamental mistake when considering litecoin's utility. "Innovations" are usually just marketing tools used to promote various shitcoin PnDs. LTC, on the other hand, has significant MARKET advantages, advantages that make it a powerful tool for speculators. It's a brand name. It's tradable directly for USD on some exchanges. It's also available on exchanges where it's possible for Americans to deposit USD directly (BFX, Cryptsy). It's cheap and liquid. And as I mentioned before, it's bitcoin's natural trading partner. That means its fate—and price—are essentially tethered to bitcoin. Some may see that as a fatal flaw/liability, but I don't. It means that litecoin still has significant value to market making speculators, because it's relatively easy to manipulate, and it serves as an alternate entry/exit point into the bitcoin market.

Maybe I'm nuts, but I think litecoin's future is virtually assured, and least in the short-term, BECAUSE of its position as bitcoin's speculative little brother. Obviously its position could easily change as the crypto currency ecosystem matures, for now, I think it's too useful (and profitable) a tool to just be left by the wayside. When bitcoin turns bull again, IMO litecoin will follow—spectacularly, if history rhymes.

My money's where my mouth is on this one, so let's hope I'm not barking at the moon here. :)
+2 Reply
DanV MOD harposox
2 years ago
Thanks that is interesting.
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harposox IvanLabrie
2 years ago
That's certainly the conventional wisdom, but I'm not buying it. It's no accident that there's an awful lot of money invested in litecoin mining infrastructure, and its symbiotic relationship as bitcoin's natural trading partner gives it the potential to be a ridiculously profitable speculative vehicle. Despite's LTC's current price woes, that potential still exists.

Could there be a lot more room to the downside? Yes, absolutely. But take a look at the historical behavior of the LTC/BTC ratio when bitcoin bubbles. In the past two bubbles, IIRC, the ratio shot from around .0075 to .05 in a matter of WEEKS. That means essentially taking bitcoin's USD appreciation, and multiplying that by a factor of 6.66. Are market makers/manipulators going to just walk away from this golden goose? They may certainly manipulate the price into oblivion to shake out all of the true believers (and mining competitors), but I doubt they walk away from litecoin entirely. In fact, looking at the obviously manipulated nature of the LTC/BTC ratio cycle, one could plausibly make the argument that bitcoin bubbles are specifically engineered so that the majority of this wealth can be extracted on the sly... through LTC.

I'd love to hear some feedback on these ideas... crazy talk?
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP harposox
2 years ago
Might be the case, but there is simply no way to know.
If you want to invest into this be ready to lose 100% of the invested money, so a 3-5% exposure wouldn't be that bad.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thanks for that. I agree.
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DanV MOD harposox
2 years ago
Thanks for your comments and observations. I personally cannot comment beyond the ratio charts and agree that if BTC is to make new bullish leg to the upside even to say 600. LTC would explode based on the ration chart. So I agree that fantastic opportunity exist for the long when it finally bottoms. But I have feelings that BTC is risky enough so to go to LTC would be even riskier for me. But other with more experience could take advantage assuming timing s good.

Sure would welcome this debate from others with more input.
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afbitcoins DanV
2 years ago
This is a very interesting thread. Have heard the argument about ASIC mining spoiling litecoin but the litecoin has a strong brand which counts for a lot in the alt-coin game if you ask me. I've seen many alt-coins appear full of promise only to dissapear just as quick, and been burned by some of them. I might buy into litecoin at some point but something making me hold back for now. I think I want to see bitcoin turn bullish first.
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IvanLabrie TOP afbitcoins
2 years ago
I think there are far more reliable instruments out there. Forex with its cheap entry price and huge leverage and even hedging facilities is a way more productive way of spending one's time, instead of waiting on striking it big with an altcoin.
It's more work sure, but I can reliably make certain % per month, whereas with altcoins it's more akin to gambling.
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afbitcoins IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Yes I know what you mean, it does feel uncomfortably like gambling going into alt-coins, I don't do it anymore.
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IvanLabrie TOP afbitcoins
2 years ago
You need a crowd to analyze crowd-behavior (technical analysis).
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thrasher IvanLabrie
2 years ago
The developers haven't abandoned it, versions 0.9.3 and then 0.10 are scheduled for release shortly. The founder of Litecoin is coblee and works for Coinbase - one of Bitcoin's largest companies at this point in time and the lead developer is Warren who was the founder of Fedora Linux. Both are actively engaged in it and innovations can easily be incorporated into the code base.

Some miners are indeed mining and dumping straight away however this selling pressure will be halved around June/July, when Litecoin encounters its first block half event. I do agree that Litecoin was originally intended to avoid ASIC miners with the scrypt algorithm, however no coin can be made ASIC proof. The cost of mining hardware currently does centralise mining however over time we should see them become cheap and widely available similar to how mainframes in the early days were centralised until it was cheap enough for personal computers to become common place.

Liquidity for Litecoin is the second most traded coin with millions of dollars worth of Litecoin traded per day and is the only other coin accepted on all major exchanges. It is also the only other coin which has a derivatives market.

People would be losing hope in it due to the declining price, but the same can be said for Bitcoin until it bottoms out. When these coins turn bullish then you'll see the hope renewed and another crazy rise like when it went from $1 to $48 in a week.
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP thrasher
2 years ago
Stating things like you WILL see, or WHEN these coins turn bullish.
That is a possibility, but not guaranteed.
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rivet.popper
2 years ago
LTC seems to be on the upswing now. Are we still following this setup? Any new observations? Thanks for your hard work.
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DanV MOD rivet.popper
2 years ago
Hi. With these volatile instruments it is harder to grill down to very small time frame. However it seems that this sharp bounce might only be retracement with possible another leg down due. Unless we continue higher then it might suggest that the low is in but probably not the major low.
snapshot
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srd10
2 years ago
Hi DanV, new ltc chart in the making? At least I would appreciate one.
+2 Reply
Douglas-Squirrel srd10
a year ago
any update?
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