LTCCNY - Litecoin Could Be About To See The Day Light - Updated

OKCOIN:LTCCNY   Litecoin / Chinese Yuan
Unfortunately, the support we identified in previously published chart gave way for another bearish move. Reviewing the wave counts are not made easy in instruments likes this particularly with lack of historical data.

However, it seems at least in this bearish cycle a pull back could be anticipated for the following reasons:

1. RSI at potential support.
2. ADX suggesting that the move is very stretched and corresponding pull back in price might be already in progress.

The Fib Extensions could often help but most of these are failing due to lack of proper pivot points and the fact that it has declined so much. Nevertheless I have adjusted the counts for wave (iv) & (v) suggesting that wave (v) is well advanced and could complete soon but caution should be exercised.

Conclusion is that once we get a pull back we still have 1 more drive to compete wave iv of (v) that could form a bottom near 8 or probably 5.

RSI noted above is also showing larger divergence in formation which if it holds could support the idea that final low could develop around 8 -5 zone.

LTC/BTC ratio chart has also broken down and is shown below with counts adjusted accordingly.

Similarly, the BTC             daily chart we have been following as our roadmap also has some way to go yet, hence further weakness is expected and may be both will bottom together.

So unfortunately the light of day will shine through but appears to be postponed for now.

As always, do you own analysis and be quick to adjust you views according to progression of price data with time.
Hi DanV, new ltc chart in the making? At least I would appreciate one.
+2 Reply
any update?
LTC seems to be on the upswing now. Are we still following this setup? Any new observations? Thanks for your hard work.
DanV MOD rivet.popper
Hi. With these volatile instruments it is harder to grill down to very small time frame. However it seems that this sharp bounce might only be retracement with possible another leg down due. Unless we continue higher then it might suggest that the low is in but probably not the major low.
+1 Reply
I think the problem is the lack of real liquidity in the early times...I don't think these instruments will have a bottom any time soon.

Even less LTC, its fundamentals are completely destroyed, developers abandoned it, people are losing hope in it, chinese scrypt mining cartels mine and sell, at one point buyers will disappear and it will die.
If BTC is falling, imagine how hard LTC will fall, when its sole purpose was to provide an alternative to the ASIC mined BTC? (you can now mine LTC with scrypt asics, making it completely inaccesible and unprofitable for the common folks, the play toy of the few who can manufacture their own asics for low cost and run them on free or ridiculously cheap power, whilst selling expensive mining machines that will never ROI to the bigger fool).

Fools will get bored of getting scammed one day.

How familiar are you with the mining industry Dan?
+2 Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
You could be right with your comments. I have no knowledge of the mining industry or more structural fabric around this. I am purely going from Technical Analysis and on the assumption that it continues. If it fails as an entity along with some of other Cryptos then I think many of the active traders and possibly investors will have learned or should learn a valuable lesson in that just focusing on positivity do not necessarily make a particular invention a success. Will follow development with keen interest. Thanks for your comments. Appreciate it.
+1 Reply
Indeed, I think of these as penny stocks...houses of cards.
BTC had the first mover advantage, LTC had the first altcoin (that became popular) advantage.
It doesn't have anything else going for it, specially after the developments in this field, and how the community evolved (and how many times they were scammed).
If you read bitcointalk.org and twitter, you'll understand what's driving the moves, and in general, outside the BTC field, it's manipulation and irrational speculators driven by greed who know nothing about financial markets.
Have a great week Dan!
+1 Reply
harposox IvanLabrie
Agree entirely that litecoin is driven entirely by manipulation and speculation, and yes, it's FULL of market noobs. No argument here. And yes, most alt coins are essentially penny stock pump and dumps. I'd even agree that litecoin itself is a pump and dump (see my earlier reply)—in a sense it's the grandest pump and dump of them all.

IMO, thinking in terms of developments and innovation is a fundamental mistake when considering litecoin's utility. "Innovations" are usually just marketing tools used to promote various shitcoin PnDs. LTC, on the other hand, has significant MARKET advantages, advantages that make it a powerful tool for speculators. It's a brand name. It's tradable directly for USD on some exchanges. It's also available on exchanges where it's possible for Americans to deposit USD directly (BFX, Cryptsy). It's cheap and liquid. And as I mentioned before, it's bitcoin's natural trading partner. That means its fate—and price—are essentially tethered to bitcoin. Some may see that as a fatal flaw/liability, but I don't. It means that litecoin still has significant value to market making speculators, because it's relatively easy to manipulate, and it serves as an alternate entry/exit point into the bitcoin market.

Maybe I'm nuts, but I think litecoin's future is virtually assured, and least in the short-term, BECAUSE of its position as bitcoin's speculative little brother. Obviously its position could easily change as the crypto currency ecosystem matures, for now, I think it's too useful (and profitable) a tool to just be left by the wayside. When bitcoin turns bull again, IMO litecoin will follow—spectacularly, if history rhymes.

My money's where my mouth is on this one, so let's hope I'm not barking at the moon here. :)
+2 Reply
DanV MOD harposox
Thanks that is interesting.
harposox IvanLabrie
That's certainly the conventional wisdom, but I'm not buying it. It's no accident that there's an awful lot of money invested in litecoin mining infrastructure, and its symbiotic relationship as bitcoin's natural trading partner gives it the potential to be a ridiculously profitable speculative vehicle. Despite's LTC's current price woes, that potential still exists.

Could there be a lot more room to the downside? Yes, absolutely. But take a look at the historical behavior of the LTC/BTC ratio when bitcoin bubbles. In the past two bubbles, IIRC, the ratio shot from around .0075 to .05 in a matter of WEEKS. That means essentially taking bitcoin's USD appreciation, and multiplying that by a factor of 6.66. Are market makers/manipulators going to just walk away from this golden goose? They may certainly manipulate the price into oblivion to shake out all of the true believers (and mining competitors), but I doubt they walk away from litecoin entirely. In fact, looking at the obviously manipulated nature of the LTC/BTC ratio cycle, one could plausibly make the argument that bitcoin bubbles are specifically engineered so that the majority of this wealth can be extracted on the sly... through LTC.

I'd love to hear some feedback on these ideas... crazy talk?
+2 Reply
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