DanV
Long

LTCCNY - Litecoin Could Be About To See The Day Light

OKCOIN:LTCCNY   Litecoin / Chinese Yuan
LTCCNY             - Litecoin Could Be About To See The Day Light

Most Crypto Currencies have been in a bear cycle for over a year which I am sure must have humbled many eager bulls and given bears something to jubilee. In fact I have noticed that there seems to be more bears being vocal that ever before in the last 12 months of my observation.

I almost given up even looking at LTC             chart due to my general misgiving about the entire Crypto currencies lack of trust worthy infrastructure and all other negatives which I feel is a limiting factor for wider adoption. But This is early in its infancy and it is to be expected.

Price analyses using TA is somewhat difficult with limited price history with wild spikes that populate it. However, checking this chart with one of the user yesterday appear to excite me purely from TA perspective as follows:

1. Assuming that Nov 2013 high correspond to wave ( iii             ) on my BTCUSD             chart which formed after clear 5 wave move up.

2. This then needs to correct by abc zigzag this too is evident with wave c displaying clear 5 wave decline which appears to be now complete forming triple bottom.

3. Subsequent price action is attempting to breach the upper trend line of the declining channel accompanied with divergence RSI leading to low being formed and now in bullish configuration and rising.

4. Looking at the smaller time frame there is possible new bullish cycle counts suggesting minor i and ii have formed, if correct we should see further momentum carrying the price higher with volume .

5. The LTC/BTC spread chart also suggesting that corrective bearish cycle could be over.

6. If correct then we could expect LTCCNY             at least to retest the upper range of the price namely Nov 2013 high or make new higher high.

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Thanks for your time reading through my analysis.

DanV
http://www.danv-charting.com
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Here is the LTC/BTC spread chart I referred to above.
snapshot
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khoilevt DanV
2 years ago
what . higher than years ago ...
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khoilevt
2 years ago
Hi come up now ...
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amazing_ilya
2 years ago
That looks good, I ve sent tip
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DanV MOD amazing_ilya
2 years ago
Thank you.
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DoctorBitcoin
2 years ago
Nice analysis DanV.
I like it but I'm still scary about Litecoin and crypto fundamentals. It is still in a high inflation phase. If we combine that with fiat money not flowing into bitcoin (we are probably expecting another downside there), it will be even harder for altcoins like Litecoin to have huge rises to retest ATH based in fiat charts. LTC/BTC should be easier though.

You should also consider that at this point Litecoin doesn't provide a big advantage like before. It was sold to investors as a ASIC resistant crypto (now proved false), faster than bitcoin (now slower than a lot of other alternatives) and "cheaper" (well, this is still "true").

So, overall I think we could see Litecoin rising, but moderate one. At least until money starts flowing again to bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.

Regards and keep doing your great analysis! :)
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DanV MOD DoctorBitcoin
2 years ago
Thank you for your comments. Appreciate them. I don't really understand all the ins and out of these instruments. So my approach is purely from TA of price perspective. As I noted that these instruments have wild spiky bar and triangles littered everywhere, I was surprised to find such clear 5 wave count of wave c resulting in recent low. So even if we do not retest the all time high, we should expect a strong rally. You could be right in new money not flooding in. However, what I suspect might happen is that even under this circumstance if this is a larger wave 4 correction completed and wave 5 in development, we could have just the existing community noticing what is happening, are able to drive this to higher prices. Specially as it is relatively small market cap and gambling nature of the crypto traders if we can say that. Will continue to follow this with interest.
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IvanLabrie PRO DanV
2 years ago
I'd be very skeptical about ltc rising...I think this is just a pullback in the weekly...some temporary CNY weakness or something, but really, if BTC is in such a bearish trend, an altcoin with huge inflation, which exists for the sole purpose of ASIC manufacturer's profit won't get very far.
People are losing faith in altcoins at a staggering pace, see my weekly bearish chart. Still going down in the bigger scheme of things (and fiat value sort of pegged to btcusd as well).
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
You could be right. But one to monitor for sure. Just in case. Thanks for your comments.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO DanV
2 years ago
Thanks for sharing, I'll watch it, that's for sure. :D
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
YW
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amazing_ilya DoctorBitcoin
2 years ago
From my perspective, the pump will be artificial. As you said, LTC lost ASIC battle and seems to be highly manipulated by several whales, who has their own interests in other altcoins. Look at cryptsy, bittrex etc: those recent pumps in alts were undoubtly caused by LTC whales. If whales manage to pump LTC and all other alts at the same time - it's x2 profits for them
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DanV MOD amazing_ilya
2 years ago
Yes indeed. In larger cycle, whilst whales or smart money whilst still involved it is all the latecomers who join certainly as the move becomes obvious and the whales and smart money will be looking to exit or reduce holding considerably. The trick would be not to overstay your welcome and keep hoping to moonshot.
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sanlaw
2 years ago
Good post please keep it up. thanks


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-9 Reply
soap
2 years ago
OMG! Looks will be a big rebound, but will really test the November 2013 high point of it? It's amazing how.
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bhsl
2 years ago
Went back below downtrend resistance. Seems like BTC trending down puts too much pressure on it. Do you think we may see LTC reversing before BTC bottoms out?
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DanV MOD bhsl
2 years ago
May be the final low is yet to be formed so it might be little lower and may be both might bottom together. However, watching for low in the proximity is warranted.
+2 Reply
amazing_ilya DanV
2 years ago
@DanV what's your target for low? 2.5-2.6 or lower?
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
It looks as though follow through require for confirmation did not develop and has fallen back in the channel. So having reviewed price action some adjustment of the wave counts are show in this updated chart. It appears for now that we might have falling wedge forming, if so and it the last one in the cycle then may be 15 zone might prove to be the area for the low. However, take care and only on confirmation should a long be considered. Also due to the correlation with BTC it might not form low till BTC has also approach a low. So one to monitor but not to jump the gun.
snapshot
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khoilevt DanV
2 years ago
and LTC/BTC ...?
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DanV MOD khoilevt
2 years ago
That spread chart hasn't changed much. So can't really offer an meaningful update.
snapshot
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khoilevt DanV
2 years ago
Thank you for everything :)
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HCLivess
2 years ago
nice, thanks. will tip if this goes true
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bhsl
2 years ago
Is your count still valid? Spread price is testing historical S\R levels.
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DanV MOD bhsl
2 years ago
Hi. Sorry, I was little too eager. So the shorter term count in blue suggesting the low is in is wrong but the longer term count is correct and wave iv is still in progress. Final low might still some way to go.
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DanV MOD DanV
2 years ago
Here is the LTC/BTC Spread chart
snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO DanV
2 years ago
Super low liquidity in the old times makes for a strange chart. I really don't think you can see tradeable Elliot Waves in older cryptocoin charts, volume was ridiculously low, mostly random miners selling coins and then manipulation by 2 or 3 whales.
That being said, these two will probably continue to decline further. Should be fun to watch, thanks for sharing!
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
YW and thank you for your comments.
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bhsl DanV
2 years ago
Hi, thanks for an update! 0.007-0.005 should be strong support area. But I think future price action will depend on BTC, if BTC starts new bull cycle then LTC can start it too. Just an observation from previous behavior.
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DanV MOD bhsl
2 years ago
YW. You could be right in that. This bearish cycle has been very surprising to many and could not rule out further price weakness. One to keep under observation for sure.
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Thumbs up!
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M4B0X_
2 years ago
breakdown
snapshot
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