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The Great Crypto Bull-Trap

OKCOIN:LTCCNY   Litecoin / Chinese Yuan
As you can see, it appears that LTC             is leading BTC . The setup on BTC is almost EXACTLY the same as LTC             was right before it got its giant Wave iii             and increased over 100%. BTC , unfortunately, is not as volatile, so it may only increase 50%, however, with 20x leverage the gains will be similar :)

Now specifically, these are some of the reasons why I think BTC is in the same position as LTC             was in immediately before it started increasing on 5-31-15: Covers Three 3D bars (time), Crosses AO zero line, Has red AC , Bar in grey zone, Blue Gator touch, and decreasing volume at the end of Wave ii.

There are some other things that I may have missed, and on the lower time-frames BTC supports having just completed a rather large corrective pattern, so either way, even if this target is wrong, we should get at least some uptrend starting here. My goal is to long bitcoin here on 20x quarterly futures and hold until we are in at least the 300s. However, if I notice momentum significantly start to shift on a high time-frame, I won't hesitate to switch my position. The upside arrow is an intermediate target for bitcoin , I suspect that we should at least near an .886 retracement of XA for both BTC and LTC             . This does not look like the end of the downtrend for Bitcoin , only a significant bull-trap. Litecoin is not nearly as clear on the monthly time-frame, but I suspect that it is in the same bull-trap pattern as Bitcoin . My downside targets are around 170, but that is not entirely certain just yet, current price action will determine future bearish targets. Until then, MOOOON!

Happy Trading! :)

"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving." -Lao Tzu

http://scamco.in/2015/06/25/the-great-crypto-bull-trap/
oldstout
a year ago
I don't think so. That would be too easy. LTC has no such power...
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Intuit PRO oldstout
a year ago
The harmonics may not form perfectly as planned, but all the surrounding evidence definitely supports an extended Wave iii for bitcoin. It doesn't necessarily have to be complicated since its a standard elliott pattern. Bitcoin also has to have an extended wave to complete this pattern and it makes perfect sense for it to be right here.
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Intuit PRO
a year ago
See for alternative count and more information:
http://scamco.in/2015/06/25/the-great-crypto-bull-trap/
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DOOOOD I like the similarities between the two. Crypto loves to do stuff like this.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper
a year ago
So you're not seeing a new ATH in the next few months for LTC anymore? Just a big dump in the end? I don't get it.
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
It all depends really. I'm not exactly sure at this point because these waves could extended and go much further. But the surrounding evidence does kind of point to this being a flat rather than a new impulsive wave up. If the bat forms it's definitely bearish at that point. It will be more clear as we approach the higher price levels how far this could go. I wouldn't completely rule out ATH but I am conservative here, especially with BTC. LTC is even less clear so I'm kinda just assuming its doing the same thing as bitcoin until it becomes more clear to me.
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Intuit PRO
a year ago
It should be noted that unless we can break 1610cny on a median 4H chart soon, there is very little chance that this chart is correct. As of now the winning count is of this chart
Bitcoin, Time for More Bullish Flat Action


On a lower time-frame it should be noted that this looks like a possible Wave iv of 5 of c. Meaning after a day of consolidation we'll get a small leg up and then a major drop down to test 209 and 170. Here's the 4H count I'm looking at.
snapshot


Since the correction preceding this up-move was of the Double Combination variety (Zigzag x Flat) It is very unlikely that this will end up being an extended wave, because, generally, this type of wave is not followed by a particularly strong move. This sets up the most likely possibility as a 5th Wave Failure. All of the surrounding evidence supports that conclusion as well, so for now it is most likely the best conclusion. This conclusion only becomes invalid if we break 1610cny because then the wave that I have labeled as x3 on the 4H chart is actually not an extended wave and we are likely in a 5th Wave Extension or possibly a new impulsive wave.

So as wonderful as it would be to see $350 bitcoins by next month, I think it may be an overly optimistic view. I'm still holding on to my long but I will most likely close it on the next leg up unless it has very strong momentum and is able to break 1610cny, at which point I will probably add on to my longs.
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Intuit PRO
a year ago
UPDATE: I'm back on this published chart. Last rise was pretty strong, looks like we're about to break the long-term bearish trendline.

snapshot
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Intuit PRO
a year ago
Check here for an update
http://scamco.in/2015/06/29/dead-stop-under-the-confirmation-line-did-the-bulls-just-get-led-to-the-slaughter-house/
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