Litecoin Bearish Wedge, or is it a Trap, part 2

It's safe to say the wedge was not real, because with a real wedge, we should see much more immediate reaction when supports break. This doesn't mean it can't drop of course. During the weekend it bounced up quite well after Bitcoin' made that first drop to 3920. But volumes are decreasing for LTC', which shows there is not enough interest at the current price. On the right we can see a channel, which seems to be legit and at the moment it is hanging above the support. So even with Bitcoin' making a small bounce up, LTC' did not really follow, suggesting it is very likely to see a break of that channel on the downside. Only thing than could stop that, is if BTC' invalidates it's bear flag with a break of 3930ish.

Bigger picture, on the left i have kept that blue line there since it is still following that path. LTC' has made a bit rally the past months, so it would be nothing more than normal to see it make a decent correction to see if there are buyers willing to get in again. The 52/54 support zone, i mentioned several times the past weeks, should hold. Below that zone i won't know where it can stop. A drop towards the 40 would also be possible.

Short term, think that small channel within the blue one is something to follow. A break up would not be enough for the bulls, needs to break that red zone as well around 60. That green support around 58 has given a bounce several time now the past 2 weeks, so if that one breaks, we should see at least a small dump.
Mid-term, i think only a big strong and high volume break of the 62/63 zone could stop a bigger correction towards the 52. Otherwise it will probably just be a matter of time until we make a move down. Expatriation on Bitmex is at the end of this week, so it's likely to see nothing special happen until then.



Previous analysis:

Comment:

Bitcoin made a move just now, fooling the bears with the fake bear flag. That channel i mentioned broke and a big move just happened. Now if they can keep this up, the aggression and the volume, we could see the channel break. But a small break could still be just noise though. Volume on the daily should reach something like the green area on the left by tomorrow, otherwise it could be meaningless. Still like 22 hours to make that happen.