Rotox
Long

LTCUSD -Removing the outlier 8$ spike for more informed analysis

BTCE:LTCUSD   Litecoin / Dollar
Previously I had complained about the 8$ spike making normal analysis difficult based on it being an outlier that distorts our outlook. Based on statistics, I have a healthy respect for the law of averages which is why regression analysis appeals to me. Using a regression line back to the years low at 1.056, we find that it happened 205 days ago, using this for the regression analysis lines up quite nicely with the post spike movements from 5.23 down to 3.12, with our price trending in the blue positive channel since.

From here then, we can use the yearly low and new price points to establish pitchforks to give us an idea of our current channel. Using an ordinary channel suggests that the current trend has support around 3.6 with my previous idea suggesting 3.4 as a support area. So that seems like a decent target for a buy assuming we don't go full bear and break downwards. The normal pitchfork suggests 8USD by 2016...let's see how that goes.

Finally, I've plotted a Shiff pitchfork at the bottom for a more conservative outlook. Support for this trend is 3.21 at the bottom.

Related Ideas

Rotox
a year ago
Make of it what you will, but we just bounced of the Linear regression centreline. PSAR just turned positive on the daily. The pitchforks hint 4.4 and 4.75 as next targets, and I can't help but think we'll probably test five again.
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Rotox
a year ago
Bottom of the Shiff pitchfork held.
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