Back in June we believed that “this event can also be compared to a “buy the rumor, sells the news” type scenario, where weeks leading up to the event LTC price rallies, but after the date of the halving the momentum slows and traders looking for that explosion to the upside that doesn’t occur decide to close their built-up length and price retraces.”
However, in our July update, we concluded that the “selloff has also occurred prior to the halving, and not after the catalyst date. This gives us the impression that the LTC halving may be a non-event in terms of a massive price move one way or the other.”
As we wrap up this halving, we take a look at the chart to confirm what we wrote to be true. Clearly you can see LTC rally from the February lows and HOLD the black upward sloping on multiple occasions (labeled but the green up arrows). This aligns with the ‘buy the rumor’ portion of the trade concept, that the price action of LTC would rally weeks leading up to the halving date. The ‘sell the news’ part came before the actual halving date. From July 10th to the 16th, LTC saw a violent retracement from ~$120 down to ~$80, lower by 30% in only a week. As it bounced off the lows of ~$80, LTC could not rally back above the BLACK sloping , which once was support, has now turned into resistance (represented by the red down arrows).
In the near-term, it would seem logical that we remain rangebound, between the 200-day Moving average as support (orange curve), and the black upward sloping as resistance. Moves beyond these two areas would be considered break-outs and new technical channels would likely form in the direction of the move.
Longer-term, the downside of $47.50 represented by the horizontal purple line connects the support from August-November 2018, as well as initial resistance in February 2019 that was easily taken out. IF we see a major selloff across the asset class, this level would be the price target but would likely see plenty of support in that area.